Bitcoin Breakout? Will BTC Hit $74K This Week?

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Bitcoin, that stubborn cipher, is perched at $72,330 on April 13, pressing the upper trendline of a four-hour ascending channel that has strutted along since the late-March nadir near $65,000. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $786 million last week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $612 million across five trading days, provide the structural demand backdrop for the move.

SMA 20 at $72,056, SMA 50 at $70,980, SMA 100 at $69,060, and SMA 200 at $69,877 are all stacked in order beneath current price, consistent with a recovering trend structure. The 4H MACD histogram reads at -107.94, still negative but trending less so across recent sessions, indicating momentum is improving rather than reversing outright.

Ascending Channel Tests Upper Boundary With Bullish SMA Ribbon Below

The 4H chart shows Bitcoin constructing a textbook ascending channel since the late March lows, with consecutive higher lows building from the $65,000 zone as the MA ribbon progressively curled into a bullish order. The upper boundary of the channel aligns with the $72,600 session high printed April 13. The annotated $70,000 level sits near the channel’s lower boundary and has acted as the structural floor throughout the move.

The negative MACD histogram at -107.94 adds a layer of caution: the session is recovering but the 4H momentum cross is not yet confirmed to the upside, meaning a sustained push above $72,600 would need volume to back it. Price has recovered from the Sunday gap-down triggered by the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks and President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade order, which briefly pressured Bitcoin to $70,741 at the Monday open.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe of MN Trading Capital wrote on X on April 4 that “the longer the range persists, the heavier the breakout becomes,” adding that he expected a push above $71,000. Bitcoin has since extended well past that level within the ascending channel.

Key Levels: Support, Resistance, and Price Targets

The immediate resistance is $72,600, the upper channel trendline and session high. A confirmed 4H close above it would clear the channel boundary and open the path toward $74,000, the next key resistance. An extended move above $74,000 targets $76,000, which aligns with the neckline of the broader double bottom structure on the daily timeframe.

On the downside, the SMA 20 at $72,056 is the first support. A 4H close below it shifts focus to the SMA 50 at $70,980, and then to $70,000, the annotated structural floor on the chart. A daily close below $70,000 invalidates the ascending channel pattern and opens $69,060 as the next support.

Invalidation: a daily close below $70,000.

On-Chain and Market Data Context

Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $786 million in total net inflows last week, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $612 million of that across five trading days. IBIT now holds 790,808 BTC worth approximately $57.2 billion, and year-to-date net inflows sit at $1.5 billion despite a 26% price decline from the 2026 peak near $97,000, per Arkham data. On April 9, a single session of $358 million in net inflows, driven by IBIT’s $269 million contribution, reversed two consecutive days of outflows and confirmed renewed institutional demand at current price levels.

Macro Context: Geopolitical Pressure Into FOMC

The Iran escalation and Friday’s CPI print, which showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% in March, are the key headwinds. Bitcoin opened April 13 at $70,741 before recovering intraday, holding the ascending channel structure above $70,000. The next critical macro event is the FOMC meeting on April 29. Rate cut probability rose from 11.8% a week prior to 29.8% following the temporary ceasefire on April 9, providing a monetary tailwind that helps explain the speed of the institutional ETF accumulation at current levels.

If Bitcoin holds the ascending channel and secures a 4H close above $72,600, $74,000 becomes the immediate target, with $76,000 as the extended objective. A loss of $70,000 on a daily close basis shifts the near-term thesis bearish.

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2026-04-14 03:00