Bitcoin Bears Drool: LTH SOPR Signals Could Spark a Comeback

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Two dramas unfold in the Bitcoin theatre, and the audience-that most solicitous of cynics-pretends not to notice. One plays out on the glossy price charts, the other sulks in the catacombs of on-chain data, delivering a tale more droll than comforting.

Bitcoin is in distress; long-term holders are parting with coins at a loss-a refrain that has visited every bear with the courtesy of a tired old joke. And yet, as if scripted by some sly wit, the chorus of those selling shrinks to a ten-year hush: addresses sending coins to exchanges have fallen to a lamentable low.

Bitcoin Bear Market Final Stage: The LTH SOPR Signal

The LTH SOPR – that faithful ledger of whether long-term holders are realising profits or losses when they spend – sits at 0.96 on its 30-day promenade. Any reading below 1.0 declares that long-term holders are parting with coins at a loss. The yearly average remains a gentlemanly 1.71, but that is history’s chatter, not today’s attire.

The pattern behind this matters.

Short-term holders have been under siege for six months. Now the burden shifts to the long-term connoisseurs-the most patient, most experienced participants in the market. Historically, this transition marks the final act before a cycle pirouettes into a new mood.

“When LTHs begin to realise sustained losses, it becomes a signal worth monitoring for long-term accumulation,” noted CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who flagged the data today.

His caveat is no mere garnish: it can descend further, and it can linger for several more months.

The Supply Side Is Already Gone

Simultaneously, Bitcoin exchange depositing addresses have tumbled to their lowest level in a decade, according to CryptoQuant data. The number of addresses actively sending Bitcoin to exchanges-a direct measure of selling intent-has collapsed to levels last seen around 2016.

Total exchange reserves stand at 2.706 million BTC as of April 8, with negative netflows recorded every month since February. Nobody is lining up to sell.

“This is the most dangerous market to be short in right now,” analyst CryptoTice wrote. “Supply drying up. ETF inflows returning. Long-term holders refusing to move. When demand meets a market with nothing left to sell – the move is never gradual.”

What History Says Happens Next

What makes this moment notable is not that either signal exists in isolation.

Bear markets routinely produce both stressed holders and declining exchange activity. What is unusual is the degree to which both are present simultaneously, and how precisely the configuration mirrors the late-stage patterns of 2018 and 2022-both of which preceded sharp recoveries.

History does not guarantee repetition, but markets rarely offer clean setups, and this one is tracing a familiar silhouette.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $72,212, basking in a weekly rise of 7.82%.

Keep Reading: Who’s Actually Making Money in Bitcoin Right Now? STH vs LTH Data

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2026-04-10 14:56