Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Revolutionary Shift or More Nonsense?

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Alright, so everyone’s freaking out over the big question: Is the legendary Bitcoin 4-year cycle totally kaput, or are we just setting ourselves up for more of the same drama? Honestly, if you don’t have whiplash yet, you haven’t been paying attention. People are speculating harder than my mother-in-law picking out a restaurant. Supposedly, if this cycle actually ends, the price action could get even nuttier. You think you know what’s coming next? Ha! Good luck with that, Nostradamus.

Developments That Threaten The 4-Year Cycle (Are We Not Entertained?)

So, here’s the deal: Bitcoin’s got this halving thing – every four years, the miners get their rewards chopped. It’s like your boss cutting your bonus, but you still have to show up. Historically, the bull market doesn’t show up until after the halving. Prices shoot up, everyone throws a big party because Bitcoin hits some ridiculous all-time high, then months later, BOOM, bear market pulls up like your least favorite cousin at Thanksgiving.

Now, 2024 should’ve followed this script, but guess what? The universe had other plans. The SEC slides in, approves Spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the price goes ballistic. New all-time highs before the halving! Premature, like… well, I’ll just let you finish that joke. 🤷‍♂️

April 20 rolls around, halving is done, and instead of taking a breather, Bitcoin rockets past $100,000. I mean, do we get a minute here? Wasn’t the last all-time high $69,000? (Seriously, who picked that number?)

And it’s not just ETFs. You’ve got Michael Saylor – the guy who acts like Bitcoin personally saved his marriage – leading the charge, with his company hoarding BTC like toilet paper during lockdown. By 2025, he’s sitting on $74 billion worth of Bitcoin. I mean, how do you even explain that at dinner parties?

So with ETFs and over 100 companies acting as Bitcoin treasurers, it’s a madhouse. None of this existed in past cycles. We’ve got enough money pouring in to make Scrooge McDuck blush. If you’re still clinging to the old 4-year rule, you might want to find a comfier blanket.

But Wait, What If The Bitcoin Cycle Isn’t Dead?

Now, Frank Fetter – apparently a quant, which means he does math for a living and probably has fewer friends than we do – says, hold on, folks, maybe the cycle’s still alive. He suggests that, on average, Bitcoin’s got like 1,060 days between “rock bottom” and “top of the roller coaster.” Do you know how many days we’re at? About 1,000 since the 2022 bottom. So maybe there’s a little juice left before the bear market comes back for seconds.

If this dinosaur of a cycle is still kicking, the next 100 days might be wild. I mean, who am I to say no to a little more chaos? “The next 100 days could be interesting,” says Fetter. Uh, yeah. Bitcoin has never been less boring – and that’s coming from a guy who finds elevator small talk thrilling.

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2025-08-20 15:14