As a total film fanatic, I was glued to the BAFTA Awards – they’re always a pretty good indicator of what’s going to happen at the Oscars. This year’s show, held on February 22nd, 2026, pretty much confirmed what I suspected: One Battle After Another is still the one to beat for Best Picture and Paul Thomas Anderson is looking good for Best Director. But things just got a lot more exciting in the acting categories! The races for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress are now wide open.
Timothée Chalamet was widely expected to win Best Actor for his performance in Marty Supreme, but Robert Armaryo took home the award for I Swear. This came as a surprise to many, especially since Leonardo DiCaprio, another frontrunner, also didn’t win. While Armaryo isn’t eligible for an Academy Award until the 99th ceremony, this unexpected win raises questions about whether Chalamet’s chances of winning an Oscar could be jeopardized by a similar upset.
Timothée Chalamet has already received a Critics’ Choice Award and a Golden Globe, and everyone is watching to see if he’ll also win the Actors Guild Award. If he does, he’ll be the first actor to win the award in two consecutive years, following his win last year for A Complete Unknown. Meanwhile, Marty Supreme had a tough night at the BAFTAs, tying with Women in Love (1969) and Finding Neverland (2004) for the most losses in a single evening, with zero wins from 11 nominations.
Honestly, the Best Supporting Actor race is a total toss-up right now. Sean Penn snagged the BAFTA for One Battle After Another, but before that, it was Stellan Skarsgård at the Golden Globes for Sentimental Value, and Jacob Elordi took the Critics’ Choice for Frankenstein. If Benicio del Toro wins for One Battle After Another at any of the upcoming ceremonies, it’ll mean four out of the five nominees have already won a big award – that’s wild! But then, Delroy Lindo getting an Academy Award nomination for Sinners was a real shocker, and with the movie leading the nominations with a whopping 16, I’m starting to think he could pull off a surprise win. It’s really anyone’s game at this point.
Wunmi Mosaku received the BAFTA award for Best Supporting Actress. She won over Teyana Taylor, who had previously won a Golden Globe, and Amy Madigan, a Critics’ Choice winner, thanks to her performances in One Battle After Another and Weapons.
The Road to the Oscars is Far From Over
Warner Bros. Pictures
The 98th Academy Awards will take place on March 15, 2026, and this year’s competition is proving to be quite unpredictable. Currently, the frontrunners for Best Picture are two Warner Bros. films: One Battle After Another and Sinners. The entire awards season has been full of surprises, from the nominees announced. Many were surprised to see F1 nominated for Best Picture, while films previously expected to do well, like Wicked: For Good, didn’t receive any nominations. Highly praised movies such as It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and Sorry, Baby were mostly overlooked.
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Predicting the winners of the Academy Awards based on other award shows isn’t reliable, as the voters for each organization are quite different. For example, the Golden Globes and the Academy Awards have completely separate voting members, and even the Actors Guild Awards don’t perfectly align with the Academy. We saw this recently with Conclave winning the BAFTA for Best Picture but Anora taking home the Academy Award. While surprises are always possible – perhaps Michael B. Jordan or Ethan Hawke could win Best Actor – the only thing we can be sure of is that there are no guarantees. However, we believe Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner for Best Actress for Hamnet, having already won a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, and now a BAFTA.
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2026-02-23 03:34