AVAX Price Collapse: Bears Narrow Focus to $9

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In the dusty coin-market of our modern days, Avalanche wobbles once more under the stern hand of pressure. It could not clasp the noble belt of $12, and now it tiptoes about the 11.7-11.8 precinct, like a clerk who has misplaced his spectacles and found only a tearful ledger. The tumble is not a dramatic tragedy but a bureaucrat’s joke: momentum in the alt-town is a rumor, and AVAX stubbornly continues its march along a neatly drawn, merciless bearish line.

Brave New Coin, that venerable town crier, reports that AVAX hovers near $11.78, down more than 2% in the last day. Intraday hops appear, yes, but they resemble a dignified step of a somnambulist-tiny, shallow, and more likely to lead you toward the cellar than toward a rooftop party. Traders sharpen their pencils for downside levels, not for a triumphant return to glory.

AVAX/BTC Pair Signals Relative Underperformance

One of the clearest omens comes from the AVAX/BTC pair. Analyst Jesse Peralta has it in plain words: the structure is weak, and the pair remains imprisoned inside a descending channel-like a provincial clerk stuck in a stairwell. His chart sketches a possible march toward the 0.000110 BTC region if present support capitulates, which would be a fine bonus to the town’s misery.”

This matters because relative weakness against Bitcoin often precedes deeper USD misfortune. When AVAX cannot outshine BTC during these humdrum consolidations, it tends to bleed more aggressively during market pullbacks, as if the town forgot to turn off the rain.

Temporary AVAX Bounces Confirm Weak Demand

Umair Crypto’s analysis thickens the plot with a melancholy grin. He notes that recent support reactions have yielded only modest rebounds, a polite sign of weak demand. Price is now retesting the RSI trendline, which behaves more like a stern door of dynamic resistance than a welcoming ramp to prosperity.

A rejection at this RSI barrier keeps the bearish path intact. In plain terms, AVAX remains exposed to another leg lower if buyers cannot reclaim momentum quickly. The structure suggests rallies are being sold into strength, like shoes at a clearance sale that never quite fit anyone.

Bearish Channel Capping All Recovery Attempts

The broader chart presents a well-defined bearish parallel channel, a veritable corridor of gloom. Each bounce stalls near the upper boundary while the lows creep downward with a patience worthy of a pensioner’s pension. This pattern, as murmured by the scribbler ydnldn, leaves AVAX’s roadmap unmistakable: break and hold above the channel resistance, or watch the downside continue its relentless waltz.

Within this frame, the 12-12.5 region now wears the heavy crown of supply. It is the place where previous breakdowns occurred and where sellers reassert control with a flourish. Fail to reclaim this band, and the descent remains on the menu, with $9 rising as the next major technical course of action.

AVAX Outlook (Speculative)

In the near term, the price prediction tilts distinctly bearish while price lingers below the 12-12.50 supply domain and continues to honor the broader descending channel. The shallow bounce behavior and weakness on the AVAX/BTC pair reinforce the notion that rallies may be tucked under the rug rather than celebrated as trend reversals.

If $11.60-$11.70 fails to hold on a closing basis, downside risk tightens toward the $10.50 region first, with the bolder bearish objective hovering near $9.

That said, if the bulls muster strength and reclaim the $12.50 level, the first recovery test would likely sit near $13.80-$14.50, followed by a resistance belt around $15.20-$15.50.

Final Thoughts: Market Context and Risk Considerations

Risk remains at the heart of the AVAX price forecast. Despite early basing signals, Avalanche is still traveling within a bearish structure and below key higher-timeframe resistance, meaning the trend hasn’t decided to don a bullish frock just yet.

For short-term traders, the near-term invalidation zone sits at $11.60-$11.70, while upside scenarios hinge on reclaiming $12.50. For longer-term participants, focus shifts away from every twitch in the intraday and toward whether AVAX can reclaim prior weekly resistance rather than merely defend a floor.

In the grander scheme, AVAX remains a creature of structure. Whether Avalanche is a good investment depends on the length of the rope you’re willing to bite, not on the latest headline. Keeping the price capped below $12.50 tilts the outlook toward a $9-$11 corridor, with a dash of chaos for good measure.

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2026-01-29 15:30