Bitwise CIO Makes a Bold $1 Million Bitcoin Case: Here’s the Math

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Bitcoin (BTC), that ever-sturdy digital rock, has somehow managed to stay afloat amidst the geopolitical storm clouds. Still, the king of crypto hasn’t lived up to the wild predictions of fortune-tellers in the financial world, causing more than a few experts to downgrade their long-term projections. You know, just another day in the volatile land of digital assets.

But fear not, for Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is here to tell us that Bitcoin might just hit the $1 million mark, citing “conservative assumptions” that would, according to his calculations, shoot the cryptocurrency to a price that most of us would consider outrageous. But who said the future is a place for rational thinking?

Store-of-Value Market Expansion Drives Bitcoin Projection

In a recent memo, Matt Hougan laid out his rather bold hypothesis, claiming that those who dismiss a seven-figure Bitcoin price are simply making a “pretty basic mistake.” Well, if you say so, Matt.

Now, let’s talk numbers. According to Hougan, the store-of-value market is currently hovering around a cozy $38 trillion, with gold chilling at $36 trillion and Bitcoin strutting its stuff at $1.4 trillion. Do the math, and Bitcoin currently holds less than 4% of this lucrative market.

“This is why $1 million per bitcoin sounds unreasonable to many, and why I dismissed it for years. Given the current market size, bitcoin would need to capture more than 50% of the store-of-value market to reach $1 million. That is a very high bar,” he shared.

But wait! Don’t go putting your Bitcoin back in the vault just yet. Hougan points out that the store-of-value market is anything but static. In fact, gold’s market cap has exploded from around $2.5 trillion in 2004 to a whopping $40 trillion today. And we’re just getting started, folks.

This translates into a smooth 13% annual growth rate, courtesy of things like rising government debt, geopolitical chaos, and easy money policies. In the next ten years, Hougan projects the combined store-of-value market to balloon to a staggering $121 trillion. If Bitcoin just grabs a modest 17% of that, you’re looking at a $1 million price tag. It’s not quite the moon, but it’s certainly within reach.

“That’s still a lot of growth-from ~4% to ~17%-but it feels well within reach when you reflect on all the progress bitcoin has made recently,” he said.

Institutional Momentum Supports the Case

Hougan also points to the growing institutional interest as evidence that Bitcoin is, indeed, headed for a breakout. US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are apparently growing faster than any other ETFs in history. Who knew, right?

Apparently, even prestigious entities like the Harvard endowment and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund are hoarding Bitcoin. BeInCrypto reported that institutions scooped up approximately 829,000 BTC in 2025 alone. Some say it’s the new gold rush, others call it a Friday afternoon.

Even better, long-term volatility has dropped so much that now, institutional investors are feeling comfortable with putting up to 5% of their portfolios in Bitcoin. Just a few years ago, they were too scared to go beyond 1%. What a difference a few years make.

“There are still miles to go, but with these undercurrents, capturing one-sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn’t seem extreme. It seems more like a continuation of recent trends.”

Risks and Upside Scenarios

Of course, all good things come with a side of risk. Hougan acknowledges two big potential pitfalls. First, the past two decades have been anything but calm-think global financial crisis, the birth of quantitative easing (QE), and an endless sea of low-interest rates. The conditions that helped gold soar may not repeat.

Second, Bitcoin might simply fail to capture more market share. Regulatory roadblocks, tech risks, or a sudden loss of popularity could stop Bitcoin dead in its tracks.

“But I think there’s equal risk that these projections are too conservative-that the store-of-value market will grow faster in the future,” he added.

On the other hand, if government debt becomes a full-blown crisis, the demand for non-sovereign stores of value could skyrocket. In that case, Bitcoin might grab way more than its 17% share of the market. You know, the whole “when it rains, it pours” thing.

“As I see it, the base case-that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has-leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today,” the CIO wrote.

But then, there’s the great existential question. While Hougan bases his Bitcoin predictions on the idea of it being a store-of-value asset, recent market trends have muddied that narrative. When the economy gets stressed, Bitcoin doesn’t exactly act like a safe haven. During the tariff crash, it was gold that people flocked to, not Bitcoin. So while the store-of-value market may expand, it’s still unclear whether Bitcoin will follow suit.

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2026-03-11 11:42