Bitcoin at 70k: Top or Bottom? Analysts Warn 50% Drop

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Risk management has basically become the new little black dress, darling-everybody’s wearing it because the market is throwing a fit and the FUD is louder than my last dating app notification.

From a technical perspective, crypto has purged over $1 trillion in under a month, leaving investors rearranging their portfolios as if auditioning for a very dull play. And yet, the dip-buyers are on holiday; sentiment is more cautious than a cat in a cucumber patch.

Meanwhile, geopolitics has joined the party, notably China telling banks to trim their exposure to U.S. Treasuries-a macro shift that’s proven to be a prime plot twist for Bitcoin this cycle.

China’s stash of U.S. Treasuries has sunk to an 18-year low of $682 billion-yes, apparently they’ve decided to donate to the ’emptying the piggy bank’ fund. In 2025 alone, holdings slid about 11% as selling got aggressive.

With Beijing pressing banks to reduce Treasury exposure, the momentum behind its “de-dollarization” is gathering steam, putting the U.S. dollar on a bit of a slimming regime-it’s already down 1.4% after closing 2025 with a 9.4% slump. Joy.

For Bitcoin, a weak dollar has historically been the comedy sidekick that boosts the bull runs.

Yet 2025 did a little tango away from that pattern, prompting a pressing question: as investors juggle risk amid stubborn FUD, is Bitcoin’s $70k a glamorous top, not a bottom, and possibly never coming back to dessert?

Bridget’s Dilemma: Is Bitcoin Still the Safe Haven, or Just a Sparkly Distraction?

That 2025 divergence? Just another sign that investors have swapped their usual handkerchiefs for different reasons, shifting positions like they’re at a charity shop trying to look interesting.

Unlike prior cycles, Bitcoin finished the year down 6.3% even as the dollar sagged 9.4%. Gold meanwhile strutted up 65%, sending the BTC/XAU ratio tumbling 44%-the weakest since the 2022 bear, darling.

Result: Bitcoin halved from 30k to 15.5k in that saga. And now the divergence is winking at us again, with the BTC/XAU ratio slipping below the 15.50 level-an alarm bell historically tied to tops, or so the charts pretend to know.

Against this backdrop, China’s latest moves are making more noise than a committee meeting with no coffee.

Their push to cut Treasury exposure adds pressure on the dollar and exposes stress like a dry shampoo ad. Investors sigh, go cautious; the government smiles, as yields on debt creep higher.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is having its safe-haven status questioned; it didn’t quite hold that banner in 2025 either. And with the BTC/XAU ratio breaking a key support, the market might be lining up for a repeat performance-perhaps not the encore anyone asked for.

In short, it’s not a slam dunk that $70k is the top; but with macro FUD and awkward investor positioning, Bitcoin is definitely not negotiating a bottom either-analysts still hint at a possible 50% slide, probably after coffee.

Final Musings

  • A trillion-dollar wipeout and China’s Treasury trimming are testing the dollar’s patience and Bitcoin’s safe-haven act.
  • The BTC/XAU break of support hints at a rerun of the 2025 drama.

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2026-02-10 13:59