Yesterday, Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below $63,000 before today’s Federal Reserve meeting. However, it has since bounced back, increasing in value by over $1,000.
According to well-known analyst Joao Wedson, data from the Bitcoin blockchain indicates that the cryptocurrency is approaching a price level where significant buying activity typically occurs.
Long-Term Holders Take Control
Wedson recently tweeted that he uses a specific calculation – dividing long-term Bitcoin holders’ realized capital by that of short-term holders – to understand where the majority of market money is. He notes that Bitcoin has historically hit significant low points twice when this ratio exceeded 4. Currently, the ratio is at 3.9, suggesting the market is getting close to this key level.
The data shows that long-term investors now hold a significantly larger portion of the total capital than short-term traders. This suggests that investors with a strong belief in the asset are driving the market, while short-term speculation is playing a smaller role.
Wedson explained that this market pattern has appeared before during periods of strong buying, when investors who are quick to sell exit their positions and long-term investors take over. Alphractal followed up by stating,
As an analyst, I wouldn’t say we’ve definitively hit the absolute low yet. But what I *am* seeing is Bitcoin moving towards a price level that historically marked the end of major downward trends, or ‘cycle bottoms’. So, it’s a key area to watch.
Santiment’s analysis showed a positive trend: wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin increased their holdings by nearly 20,000 over eight days. While smaller investors (those with less than 0.01 BTC) were less active in buying during price dips, Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of about $172 million in July. According to Santiment, these combined factors suggest a healthy market setup as more Bitcoin is moving into the hands of long-term holders.
MVRV Differs From Past Cycles
Right now, everyone is watching where Bitcoin stands in relation to its overall market trends. According to trader Ardi, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is currently 1.21 – significantly higher than it was during the lows of previous ‘bear markets’, which were 0.69 in 2018 and 0.75 in 2022. This ratio essentially compares Bitcoin’s current market price to its actual value, helping to determine if it’s over or underpriced based on what people have already invested.
Ardi noted that while the market hasn’t fallen as much as in previous downturns, price swings are getting smaller and extreme lows aren’t as dramatic. He thinks this means the MVRV indicator might bottom out at a higher level than it has in past cycles.
2026-07-29 15:39