People are betting heavily on the future price of ethereum on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Millions of dollars are at stake, with traders nearly evenly divided between predictions that ethereum will reach $1,000 or $3,000 by the end of 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket traders split nearly evenly on ethereum hitting $1,000 or $3,000 first by December 31, 2026.
- Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs pulled in $73 million in daily inflows as ethereum steadied near $1,860.
- Bitmine now holds 5.78 million ETH, and Glamsterdam’s mainnet launch is targeted for September or October.
Ethereum traded near $1,860 on Saturday, July 25, down from a recent high above $1,950 reached earlier in the week. The pullback followed a monthly recovery that carried the token up from lows near $1,510 in late June.
Polymarket’s Even Split on $1,000 vs $3,000
On Polymarket, a contract asking “Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?” has drawn $95,300 in volume. Traders currently price the $1,000 outcome at 54 cents and the $3,000 outcome at 50 cents, roughly an even split. The market resolves using Binance’s ETH/USDT one-minute candle data and expires December 31, 2026.
A popular prediction market on Polymarket is asking where Ethereum’s price will be in 2026, attracting almost $9 million in bets. Most traders believe Ethereum will reach $2,000 (83% probability) and there’s a good chance it will hit $2,500 (56%). However, the likelihood of reaching higher prices drops significantly: only 12% think it’ll get to $3,500, and less than 4% predict $5,000.
Trading activity for an Ethereum contract priced at $1,500 reached $1.86 million – the highest volume for any price point during this period. Traders currently estimate there’s a 47% probability of that price level being hit.
Long Odds on a New All-Time High
A separate Polymarket contract tracking whether Ethereum sets a new all-time high carries $2.3 million in volume. Traders give that outcome just a 6% chance by December 31, and only a 1% chance of happening by September 30. Both outcomes rely on Binance one-minute candle data, with the market resolving “Yes” only if a new high print exceeds every prior candle high recorded since December 16, 2025.
As an analyst, I’m seeing significant doubt among traders regarding Ethereum quickly reaching a new high. Currently around $1,860, the price is still about 62% below its peak of nearly $4,946 from late August 2025. That’s a pretty large difference, and it suggests most investors don’t anticipate a record-breaking surge anytime soon.
Kalshi Traders Cap Expectations Near $3,210
Kalshi runs a parallel market called “How high will ethereum get this year?” Traders there price Ethereum above $3,500 at 15%, above $3,750 at 12%, and above $4,000 at 10%.
That market settles using the CF Ethereum Real Time Index and expires January 1, 2027.
ETF Inflows and Bitmine’s Growing Stash
As an analyst, I’m seeing a rise in betting activity around Ethereum, which seems to be connected to renewed interest from institutional investors. We’ve recently seen spot Ethereum ETFs, particularly those from Blackrock (ETHA) and Fidelity (FETH), bringing in around $72 to $73 million in a single day. Overall, these ETFs have now attracted over $11 billion in net inflows, suggesting a strong and growing demand.
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, which holds more Ethereum than any other company, now owns about 5.78 million coins – nearly 4.8% of all Ethereum currently available. Despite also buying back its own stock, the company is continuing to acquire Ethereum with the goal of owning 5% of the total supply.
Exchange Outflows and Staking Tighten Supply
Ethereum reserves held by exchanges have dropped to their lowest levels in years, currently around 15.1 million ETH, compared to over 21 million a year ago. In recent weeks, approximately 658,600 coins were withdrawn from exchanges like Gemini and Bitfinex, totaling over $1.2 billion at the time of the withdrawals.
More people are staking their ether, with nearly 33.6% of all ether currently locked up in staking contracts. At the same time, it’s becoming easier for validators to withdraw their ether, as the waiting list to exit staking is shrinking.
Glamsterdam Upgrade Still on Track
Ethereum’s next major protocol upgrade, known as Glamsterdam, remains on track for the second half of 2026. The upgrade includes enshrined proposer builder separation and a block level access list change built to let the network process transactions in parallel, along with a higher gas limit floor of 200 million. Mainnet activation is planned for the September to October window, pending stable results on public testnets.
Recently, transaction fees have fallen to around $0.008, indicating that improvements to Ethereum’s technology are making it cheaper for people to use. Combined with increasing opportunities to earn rewards by staking their coins, this gives traders more information to help them predict future price movements.
What Comes Next
Gold prices fell as the overall cryptocurrency market weakened and interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds increased, putting downward pressure on investments considered risky. Currently, gold is finding some support around $1,850, but faces potential resistance between $1,900 and $1,920.
The next several months will test whether ETF inflows, shrinking exchange supply, and accumulation from firms like Bitmine can outweigh macro pressure and push ethereum toward the higher end of its 2026 price targets.
2026-07-25 19:59