Bitcoin held steady around $65,000 on Friday, continuing a recent upward trend that’s seen its value increase almost 4% in the last month. Recent information indicates the price may have bottomed out and isn’t likely to keep falling indefinitely.
Currently, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio is at -23. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes this might be a good time to buy and hold Bitcoin.
Seller Exhaustion
The Sharpe ratio shows how much profit you earn for the level of risk you take. A positive number means your returns are beating the risk, while a negative number suggests significant losses. According to Martinez, the current reading of -23 doesn’t necessarily signal further price drops; instead, it points to strong selling pressure that may be nearing its end. This creates a potentially favorable opportunity for long-term Bitcoin investors because the potential gains outweigh the remaining risks.
He also pointed out that drops in the Sharpe ratio during 2015, 2019, and 2022 happened right before the end of previous bear markets, suggesting a similar pattern may be unfolding now.
Martinez noticed an unusual pattern on Bitcoin’s monthly chart that has often signaled the end of past bear markets (periods of declining prices). Although other indicators suggest a potential bottom between $40,000 and $50,000, Martinez points to three specific technical signals – the RSI at 43.65, the CMO around -71, and Bitcoin testing its 50-month moving average – as historically reliable signs of major market lows.
Grayscale believes Bitcoin’s lowest price point might depend more on broader economic factors than on its usual four-year pattern.
Although some predictions based on historical patterns suggest Bitcoin might hit its lowest price in September or October, Grayscale believes Bitcoin is now more affected by things like Federal Reserve decisions and overall economic health. They say that if the Fed stops raising interest rates and the economy stays strong, then Bitcoin’s bottom could already be behind us.
$75K Hurdle
Not everyone agrees, though. Trader Ardi, for example, wants to see the price go above $75,000 before believing the recent low of $57,000 was the lowest point of this market trend.
The trader believes $75,000 is a key price point – specifically, the bottom of a double-bottom pattern from a previous trading range. If the price rises above this level, it could suggest that the long-term downward trend from $126,000 is weakening. However, the trader, Ardi, emphasized that simply breaking through $75,000 wouldn’t be enough to confirm a change in the overall trend.
According to him, Bitcoin needs to either experience a significant and sustained price increase or trade within a narrow range for several months – much like it did in February – to convincingly signal that it has hit a long-term low. Currently, he doesn’t see enough evidence to support that happening. He believes Bitcoin hasn’t yet gone through the typical process of reaching a true bottom, and instead continues to steadily decrease in value.
He also noted that if $57,000 marked the lowest point of the recent downturn, it would represent the smallest decline in a bear market ever recorded, and a bottom reached much sooner than usual – even though overall market conditions still suggest a downward trend.
2026-07-24 15:57