Vitalik Buterin, one of the creators of Ethereum, recently published a thorough exploration of how quickly artificial intelligence is developing and what that means for people. His ideas combine lessons from history, philosophical concepts, and a hopeful outlook – he believes AI will work *with* humans, not simply take over.
Vitalik Buterin doesn’t believe the simple story that AI will just take over from humans. He suggests both people and machines have a wide range of skills – everything from physical work to things like planning, being creative, and understanding emotions. He sees capabilities as existing across many different areas for both humans and AI.
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Historical Waves of Machine Advancement
As a crypto investor, I’ve been thinking a lot about how technology is changing things, and Vitalik Buterin recently laid out a really interesting way to look at it. He basically showed how, over the last few decades, machines have consistently gotten better than humans at specific tasks, and he breaks it down into three key periods. It’s a helpful way to understand where we are now and where things might be going with things like AI and, of course, crypto.
- Industrial Revolution: Mastery of mass manufacturing and repetitive physical actions performed at scale.
- Calculators and Computers: Superior performance on tasks definable through precise logical rules (e.g., code, mathematics).
- Large Language Models (LLMs): Handling tasks defined by vast example datasets, extending to both mental and physical domains (such as self-driving cars).
The charts in this series show how machines have become capable of doing more and more over time. Starting in 1500, they were limited to specific tasks like powering watermills. But by 1900, 2000, and projections for 2025, their abilities have steadily grown and broadened.
Humans still have abilities that are hard for machines to replicate. The big question now is whether current AI models are truly capable of eventually matching or surpassing all remaining human skills, or if further breakthroughs will be needed to achieve that.
The Uncertainty Around LLMs and the “Big Gamble”
Vitalik Buterin points out that we’ve been overly optimistic about new technologies before. In the early days of computers, people thought being good at math would quickly solve problems like recognizing pictures, but it turned out to be much harder than expected for a long time. Now, there’s a stronger case that large language models, improved step-by-step, *can* become widely useful. However, we still don’t know for sure.
Vitalik Buterin suggests that if humans retain skills that large language models can’t replicate, we’re on the cusp of a truly transformative AI age. He envisions a future where everyone has increased responsibility – those in entry-level positions could take on managerial roles, and managers could become leaders.
He imagines a future where everyone can think strategically, be creative, and understand emotions well. This would happen alongside improvements in living standards – like affordable food, houses built with 3D printing, and longer lifespans – all without losing what makes us human or fundamentally changing society.
He admits he’s unsure whether humans possess unique skills that large language models (LLMs) and related technologies won’t eventually be able to replicate. He believes we’re taking a significant risk with the future by assuming they won’t.
Defining AGI and the “Point of No Return”
Vitalik Buterin defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as AI with the capability to not only maintain but also progress civilization on its own – essentially, if advanced AIs were placed in robots and humanity vanished, it could carry on without us.
This definition emphasizes that AGI isn’t just about creating better tools. It suggests that no job would be truly secure from being automated, and that humanity’s position as the dominant species on Earth could change from being natural to simply a matter of past events. This carries long-term risks, as machines could potentially gain a lasting advantage by replicating themselves.
He explains the difference between Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), using chess as an example to describe a middle ground where humans and machines work together – what he calls the “centaur” phase. Machines have beaten humans at chess on their own for years, but teams of humans and machines were still better until around 2017. We’re currently in a period where this is happening – humans are likely to concentrate on overall planning and strategy, while machines take care of the detailed work, something we’re already seeing in how modern software is created.
The Promise of Deep Human-Machine Integration
The most interesting idea in Buterin’s post is about moving beyond the simple ‘human versus machine’ concept by creating a close partnership between the two. He envisions computers working with us in a much more intuitive way, responding to our thoughts and feelings – even those we aren’t fully aware of. This includes technologies like brain-computer interfaces and systems that could help people communicate and collaborate more effectively, almost like telepathy aided by computers. Ultimately, Buterin believes this will blur the line between humans and machines, creating a spectrum where both can coexist and enhance each other.
He believes that combining human and machine capabilities will ultimately surpass what either humans or machines can achieve alone, pushing us to the very boundaries of technological possibility. This vision shapes his idea of what the future will look like.
- Global political and economic pluralism preserved.
- Individuals able to choose technological upgrades for competitive exploration or remain largely human while directing AI agents.
- Earth largely transformed into a highly regulated nature preserve for traditional human living (with reduced hardships), while ambitious projects shift to space.
Navigating the Narrow Corridor: A Call for Measured Progress
Buterin cautions that the current direction is risky. Potential dangers include AI becoming uncontrollably powerful, a single company gaining too much control, the development of harmful technologies, or the loss of essential human qualities. Because of these concerns, he believes we should proceed more cautiously. He compares it to wanting to navigate a tight space at a slower, safer speed – 60 kilometers per hour instead of 200.
He believes the best result would be successful open-weight models, which he thinks would slow down the costly and potentially risky competition to build ever more powerful AI. This approach, by encouraging broader participation and innovation, could prevent irresponsible spending by large companies. Importantly, he argues that we can guide this development together – through shared decision-making – without giving up control to a single authority.
Why This Matters for Crypto and the Broader Ecosystem
Vitalik Buterin champions ideas like diverse perspectives, open platforms, and individual empowerment, which strongly reflect the fundamental values of cryptocurrency – decentralization, transparent development, and user control. His enthusiasm for open-weight AI models supports new blockchain-based projects that are exploring ways to collaboratively train, operate, and manage artificial intelligence.
With AI technology rapidly improving, projects combining Ethereum, decentralized computing, and AI will thrive by focusing on systems where humans maintain control and power is shared, rather than competing to build all-powerful, centralized AI.
Vitalik Buterin recently shared a thoughtful and detailed perspective on cryptocurrency. He expressed excitement about the technology while also urging caution and emphasizing the importance of ensuring it ultimately benefits people.
2026-07-20 15:35