Can Disney recapture the Force with ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’?

by

After more than six and a half years, a new “Star Wars” movie is hitting theaters this weekend: “The Mandalorian and Grogu.”

The latest installment of this franchise is entering a very different landscape than it did in 2019. Back then, the last film earned over $1 billion globally, but now, movie theater attendance has significantly decreased since before the pandemic.

Lucasfilm, the company behind Star Wars and now owned by Disney, has been focusing on releasing new stories through streaming series on Disney+ over the past few years. Since the service launched in 2019, the studio has produced 13 shows, including the popular “The Mandalorian,” which then led to a film. However, not all of these shows have been well-received. This year also brought a change in leadership, with Dave Filoni and Lynwen Brennan taking over as co-presidents after Kathleen Kennedy, who was originally chosen by George Lucas, stepped down.

The big question is whether this nearly 50-year-old series can still satisfy its loyal fans and attract new audiences to ensure its continued success.

According to Jeff Bock, a box-office analyst for Exhibitor Relations, the success of this film is crucial. He described it as a key test to determine if the current ‘Star Wars’ films can still attract audiences to theaters.

Hollywood Inc.

People have been asking for a third theme park at the Disneyland Resort in Anaheim for a long time, but it probably won’t be built.

Studio predictions suggest “The Mandalorian and Grogu” will earn approximately $80 million in the U.S. and Canada over the Memorial Day weekend (Friday-Monday).

This film is projected to have one of the year’s best opening weekends, potentially alongside hits like Amazon MGM Studios’ “Project Hail Mary” ($80.5 million) and 20th Century Studios’ “The Devil Wears Prada 2” ($76.7 million). It would follow other successful sci-fi releases like Warner Bros. and Legendary’s “Dune: Part Two,” which earned $82.5 million earlier this year.

But for a “Star Wars” movie, that’s considered low.

Recent Star Wars films have had varying box office success. “The Rise of Skywalker” in 2019 opened with $177 million, while earlier films, “The Force Awakens” (2015) and “The Last Jedi” (2017), both earned over $200 million on their opening weekends. In contrast, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” from 2018 only brought in $84 million, which was seen as a weak start.

Let’s be real, going to the movies is different now than it was before the pandemic. People got used to waiting for films to come to streaming, and that’s definitely changed things. This new movie, “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” is interesting because it spins off from the Disney+ series, and it doesn’t follow the Skywalker family saga we’re all familiar with. Plus, it’s worth noting that with a reported budget of $166 million, it actually cost less to make than previous “Star Wars” films.

And for Disney, box-office revenue will not be the only indicator of this film’s success.

The company hopes the movie will help increase revenue in other areas, like its streaming service, its gaming partnership with Fortnite, and especially its theme parks. The film’s characters are featured in the Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge area, and the popular Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run ride now includes a storyline based on “The Mandalorian” and Grogu.

And let’s not forget the merch! I remember when “The Mandalorian” first came out in 2019, everyone went crazy for Grogu – or as most of us call him, Baby Yoda. It was a bit of a wait to actually get anything, though – products were delayed for months. But once they finally hit shelves, Disney said they sold a whopping 13 million Grogu toys in just the first two years! It was a total phenomenon.

According to Carmelo Esterrich, a Columbia College Chicago professor who studies the cultural impact of ‘Star Wars,’ the current approach isn’t utilizing cinema in the same groundbreaking way ‘Star Wars’ originally did. Instead, it’s leveraging the established popularity of television and the character of Grogu to draw audiences to theaters.

Grogu’s popularity shows that the franchise wants to reach more than just its original fans and attract new viewers. While the movie continues the story from the streaming series, it’s made to be enjoyable even if you haven’t seen the show before.

During a presentation about Disney’s upcoming films in April, director Jon Favreau expressed his hope that the passion and enjoyment he and other longtime fans have for ‘Star Wars’ will be shared by a new generation of viewers, allowing them to experience the franchise in a similar way.

Initial ticket sales suggested the latest “Star Wars” film would primarily appeal to longtime, older male fans – the typical audience for these movies. However, after a large marketing push, Disney now believes the audience is much broader, with more young people, families, and women buying tickets.

As a huge Star Wars fan, I’m not surprised “The Mandalorian” is still the biggest hit on Disney+. It’s racked up an amazing 15 Emmys over its three seasons – seriously, the sound and effects are top-notch. I’ve heard from people connected to Lucasfilm that because the show was so well-received by both critics and fans, and because it opened up so many possibilities for exploring the characters’ histories, they’re actually planning to turn it into a movie! It makes total sense to me – the show has a built-in audience and tons of potential.

Since its debut in November 2019, the platform has seen strong viewership for shows like “The Mandalorian” and other “Star Wars” series, including “The Acolyte” and the second season of “Andor,” according to data from Parrot Analytics. While these shows have been successful, overall audience interest in live-action “Star Wars” TV series has gradually decreased over time.

Unlike “Star Wars” shows, which have seen fluctuating interest, Marvel series from Disney+ have maintained a steady audience since “WandaVision” first debuted. While Marvel has released more TV shows than “Star Wars,” overall viewership for the superhero content isn’t as high as the most popular “Star Wars” series. It’s more in line with the audience numbers for some of Lucasfilm’s less prominent shows, like “Skeleton Crew,” according to Parrot Analytics.

Ultimately, “The Mandalorian and Grogu” needs to maintain excitement for “Star Wars” in theaters. Next year, Lucasfilm is releasing “Star Wars: Starfighter,” starring Ryan Gosling and directed by Shawn Levy (known for “Deadpool & Wolverine”). This new film is already generating a lot of buzz, especially considering how well-received Gosling was in “Project Hail Mary.”

According to Exhibitor Relations’ Jeff Bock, a ‘Mandalorian’ movie is a relatively low-risk venture. He believes that if the character Grogu attracts families and ‘The Mandalorian’ series continues to appeal to fans of the original ‘Star Wars’ films, it could successfully connect older and newer generations of viewers – similar to how the classic ‘Star Wars’ movies did.

Read More

2026-05-21 13:31