2026 Crypto Predictions: Bitcoin, Midterms, and Digital Gold Madness!

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Right. So, the Gemini bloke Patrick Liou-who, I imagine, wears suits so sharp they could cut glass-says 2026 is going to be the year crypto becomes all grown-up and serious. Apparently, Bitcoin’s tired old four-year cycle is about to keel over, and regulation is going to be the hottest bipartisan topic since avocado toast.

Patrick shared five predictions this week, and frankly, they sound like the plot of a dystopian Netflix series. Investors, policymakers, and even entire countries are going to be rethinking Bitcoin and crypto. Because, of course, nothing screams “normal” like sovereign states trading gold for digital coins.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle? Dead as a Doornail.

Patrick reckons Bitcoin’s traditional boom-bust cycle is kaput. Instead of the usual 75-90% nosedives, Bitcoin’s only down about 30% from its highs. Which, honestly, is less dramatic than my last attempt at baking sourdough. 🍞

Apparently, the market’s all grown up now, with ETF flows, derivatives, and institutional custody acting like a financial Xanax for supply shocks. Who knew Bitcoin could be so… stable?

A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.

This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.

So far, it’s been pretty bang on.

Unless you…

– Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) December 17, 2025

Oh, and options markets are also chilling out. Implied volatility is now in the 25-40% range, which is practically spa-level relaxation compared to the 80% peaks of yore. Bitcoin’s basically become a macro asset, tied to liquidity and positioning resets. Boring, but probably healthy.

Crypto Goes Bipartisan in the 2026 Midterms

Patrick thinks crypto is going to be the hot bipartisan issue in the 2026 midterms. Republicans were first to cozy up to crypto voters, but now Democrats are joining the party because, let’s face it, who doesn’t love a bit of market structure legislation?

In the 2024 US elections, several crypto companies donated millions to Donald Trump’s campaign.

But, for the upcoming midterms, only two crypto firms are dominantly leading the Republican push.

Ripple and Coinbase have already donated more than $56 million to Trump’s GOP.

No…

– BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) October 6, 2025

The CLARITY Act-which sounds like something you’d buy at IKEA-is still stuck in legislative limbo, but analysts think it’ll finally break through in early 2026. Meanwhile, candidates in swing states like Arizona and Georgia are suddenly experts on crypto regulation. How convenient.

Prediction Markets Are the New Black

Patrick’s third prediction: crypto-powered prediction markets are going to be huge in 2026. They’re apparently better at aggregating real-time info than polls or forecasts. Which, honestly, isn’t hard. Polls are about as reliable as my ex’s promises.

Polymarket’s been leading the charge, but Coinbase is jumping in too. They’re even hiring “specialized talent” (read: people who can predict stuff better than a Magic 8-Ball).

First we announced prediction markets on Coinbase.

Now we’re bringing in the specialized talent to take our plans to the next level.

Welcome to Coinbase, @theclearingco.

– Coinbase 🛡️ (@coinbase) December 22, 2025

Digital Asset Treasuries Are Merging Like Mad

Patrick’s fourth prediction: consolidation among digital asset treasuries (DATs). After a brutal market cycle, many firms are trading below the value of their crypto holdings, which is basically like buying a Ferrari for the price of a Fiat.

MicroStrategy-the poster child for Bitcoin treasuries-ended 2025 with a 60% loss. Ouch. In 2026, buy-and-hold strategies might not cut it anymore, so weaker players will either merge or vanish. Survival of the fittest, crypto-style.

Nation States Trade Gold for Bitcoin

Finally, Patrick predicts that at least one nation-state will sell part of its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin. Because nothing says “modern monetary policy” like swapping shiny metal for virtual tokens. 🪙➡️💻

The US has already set up a framework for seizing Bitcoin (classic), and countries like Germany and Sweden are debating it as a reserve asset. For nations looking to diversify away from the dollar, Bitcoin’s portability and verifiability are apparently irresistible.

Overall, 2026 sounds like the year crypto finally puts on its big-boy pants. Less hype, more institutions, policy, and sovereign capital. Which, if you ask me, is about as thrilling as watching paint dry. But hey, at least it’s progress.

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2026-01-07 04:33