Bitcoin Supply Held at Loss: Will BTC Rise from the Ashes Before 2025 Ends?

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Key Takeaways:

  • About one-third of Bitcoin‘s supply is currently held at a loss, a state reminiscent of September 2024.

  • Onchain data hints at increasing short-term losses, yet overall selling pressure is rather modest.

  • Technical indicators suggest a potential recovery, assuming BTC can stabilize between $98,000 and $103,000.

Ah, Bitcoin. The digital darling of the financial world, currently in the midst of a thrilling correction. Around one-third of its supply-yes, a full 33%-is now clutching that bitter, frigid taste of loss, according to CryptoQuant’s data. A level last seen in the distant, mystical September of 2024. If this sounds like the end of the world, don’t worry, it’s not-yet. Similar phases in history have often heralded the exhaustion of sellers rather than the apocalyptic collapse some predict. Still, it’s enough to make even the most hardened hodlers clutch their cold wallets a little tighter. 🤑

Now, nearly one-third of holders find themselves swimming in a sea of unrealized losses. A sight that tends to pop up before pivotal moments in bullish cycles-much like a meteor shower just before your favorite comet reappears. These magical thresholds form when liquidity stress peaks, usually after most of the sellers have fled the scene. It’s like the markets taking a deep breath before embarking on the next phase of their mystical dance. 💃

The short-term holders (STH) are feeling the burn too, with the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) standing at 0.9904. Anything under 1.0? That’s a loss-fest. In other words, short-term traders are feeling the heat. And who could blame them? Their SOPR’s Z-score-fancy talk for how far current numbers deviate from normal-is at −1.29. That’s telling us there’s moderate selling pressure. But hold on, this isn’t the Great Capitulation of August 2024, where the same indicator nosedived to 0.9752 with a Z-score of −2.43, signaling pure panic. So, don’t pack your bags just yet. 🧳

So, where does that leave us? Between a rock and a hard place. The data suggests a market caught somewhere between “hold on” and “for the love of Satoshi, sell!” If the prices stay under pressure, long-term holders may finally start to take some profits. Meanwhile, newer investors might sell as soon as they break even-putting a damper on any potential rebound. It’s like waiting for the next season of your favorite show: will it be a hit or a flop? 😅

But, if the fear reaches maximum levels and sellers dry up, this could provide the perfect stage for a market reset, setting the stage for the next accumulation phase. It’s a bit like the calm before the storm, except the storm might actually be… good? 🌪️

Recovery Momentum May Take Time to Build

From a momentum perspective, Bitcoin’s market structure is like a piece of soggy toast-oversold and sagging. But fear not, history has shown that recovery doesn’t come with a bang, but with a slow, patient crawl. A consolidation phase is often the precursor to a sweet rebound, just like waiting for your yeast to rise. In fact, a significant buildup of short positions in the futures market might just serve as the fuel for the next big rise if prices stabilize in the short term.

Technically, Bitcoin is sticking to the script as foretold by CryptoMoon in mid-October. BTC is retesting the $103,500-$98,100 zone, a crucial demand area. If it closes below $98,100? Well, pack your bags again, because the yearly open near $93,500 could be the next stop on this rollercoaster ride. 🎢

But for those brave enough to hold on, a stable consolidation between $98,000 and $103,000 might just lay the foundation for a gradual rebound into the year’s end. It’s not the end of the world, folks-yet. Keep calm and hodl on. 🚀

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2025-11-05 21:41