Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Is It Reaching the Summit or Just Starting the Climb?

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Institutional investors, those champions of optimism, are holding tight to their “hopeful but realistic” outlook on Bitcoin for the next few months. This beacon of optimism comes courtesy of a new report released on Monday by Coinbase and the ever-so-insightful Glassnode, who clearly haven’t been watching the markets lately.

The report, in all its cautious glory, speaks of a “cautiously optimistic stance” on the cryptocurrency market heading into Q4 of 2025. As if optimism weren’t already an exercise in hope.

Short-Term Gains? Or The End of the Road?

The report highlights a few tailwinds for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory: global liquidity, a sturdy macroeconomic environment, and a political climate that doesn’t seem to be causing global panic. You know, just your usual list of things that make for a good investment atmosphere.

But hold on, before you start popping the champagne, the authors are quick to suggest caution after the mighty $19 billion leverage flush event on October 10. Sounds like someone learned the hard way that Bitcoin can bite back.

In another twist, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy is expected to deliver not one, but two rate cuts this year. This could, in theory, tempt about $7 trillion that’s currently chilling in Money Market Funds (MMFs) back into riskier assets. Because why not take a gamble when there’s trillions to move around?

Liquidity Tightening: Your Favorite Unwelcome Surprise

Let’s talk liquidity, shall we? The M2 money supply index was all sunshine and rainbows at the start of the quarter, giving everyone hope. But as the world tends to do, it flipped the script. Now, the report warns of a liquidity contraction coming in early November. Thanks to the US government shutdown and the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT), it’s going to be a bumpy ride. Spoiler alert: it’s not going to be fun.

Brace Yourself for the Macroeconomic Storm

In a show of unity between institutional and non-institutional investors, a survey of 120 global investors reveals that 67% of institutional investors and 62% of non-institutional investors are all on the Bitcoin hype train for the next 3 to 6 months. But here’s the kicker-nearly half (45%) of institutional investors believe the bull market is nearing its end. The golden era may be winding down, folks. Only 27% of non-institutional investors are brave enough to share this view.

And when asked about the biggest “tail risk” for crypto in the near future, the consensus-surprise, surprise-is the macroeconomic environment. Both institutional (38%) and non-institutional (29%) investors agree on one thing: the macro picture isn’t looking as good as your favorite meme coin.

But of course, this survey was conducted between September 17 and October 3, well before the October 10 crash. Because timing is everything, right?

Analysts Still Dream of the Moon

Remember the “Uptober” rally that everyone was talking about? Well, it’s starting to look more like “Let’s Hope This Works” as US-China tensions spike. But that hasn’t stopped the big financial institutions from sticking to their year-end Bitcoin forecasts. In fact, it’s now more of a “please let us be right” situation.

In early October, Citigroup boldly predicted that Bitcoin could hit $133,000 by the year’s end-if ETF inflows keep rolling in and DAT firms get their act together. Standard Chartered is going even bolder, predicting $200,000 for Bitcoin, assuming ETF inflows stay strong. No pressure, Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan thinks $165,000 is on the table, claiming Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold. And if you think that’s outrageous, Goldman Sachs has their own gold-based hypothesis: if gold hits $5,000 an ounce, Bitcoin could surge to a cool $220,000. Because why not let those dreams run wild?

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2025-10-20 13:18