XRP flirts with $3 amid ETF approval hope: Is $3.60 the next stop?

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Key takeaways:

  • Bloomberg analysts assign 95% odds for an XRP ETF, with a SEC decision expected for October.

  • XRPL adoption lags peers, holding just 2% of Real World Assets despite stablecoin growth.

XRP (XRP) faced a rude awakening on Tuesday after hitting its highest price in nearly two weeks at $3.04. What caused this jump? Oh, just the sweet nectar of hope surrounding a potential XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S., along with more institutional players getting involved in XRP derivatives. Speculation has begun swirling about whether XRP could possibly, maybe, just might, revisit that elusive $3.60 mark seen back in July. Who knows? Probably not, but wouldn’t it be fun?

Futures demand for XRP climbed a staggering 5% from last month, totaling a cool 2.69 billion XRP-yeah, that’s $7.91 billion if you’re keeping track at home. But hold your horses; the real drama came from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). XRP futures contracts surged 74% during the same period, reaching 386 million XRP. You’d think this would be a reason to break out the champagne, but remember, all those big market players like to balance their positions-no one wants to be caught with their pants down when things go sideways.

Now, futures trading might sound like a big deal, but at the end of the day, both long and short positions have to be in harmony. And yet, there’s a sneaky little hint of imbalance when we look at the monthly contracts. Usually, XRP futures trade about 5% to 10% higher than the spot market to account for longer settlement times. Guess what? Right now, they’re trading at a 7% premium. So much for the wild west of crypto trading, huh?

And if you’re wondering why XRP hasn’t been popping the confetti lately, here’s the reason: it’s lagging behind the rest of the altcoin market. While XRP has stayed flat since August, the broader altcoin market has been on a 14% tear, led by the likes of Hyperliquid (HYPE) with a 32% surge, Solana’s SOL at 28%, and Cardano’s ADA clocking in at 19%. XRP’s biggest moment in August? Settling its years-long legal spat with the SEC. So, yeah, maybe there’s some momentum brewing, but it’s not exactly lighting up the skies like a Fourth of July fireworks show.

XRP rally hinges on looming US ETF decision

So what’s really holding XRP’s fate in its hands? That’s right, folks-the ETF approval in the U.S. Bloomberg analysts are getting a little giddy about the chances, giving it a solid 90% shot of happening, though the SEC isn’t expected to make their final call until late October. But there’s a little twist in this crypto drama-REX-Osprey products, combining ETF and ETN structures, might roll out sooner. That’s right, you don’t need SEC approval for this one. Talk about a backdoor entry into the market.

In case you’re wondering what else is going on in the XRP world, Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, crossed the $700 million mark in assets. Impressive, right? Well, sort of. Almost 90% of RLUSD’s supply is issued on Ethereum, so the demand for XRP Ledger isn’t exactly skyrocketing. And let’s not forget the big players in the stablecoin game like Circle’s USDC and World Liberty’s USD1. Ripple’s got a tough fight ahead in that arena.

Some investors are still hoping that XRP will become the go-to infrastructure for international payments, replacing the good old SWIFT network. Maybe even tokenize the entire world while they’re at it. But, hold on, here’s the catch: XRP is trailing other smaller blockchains in terms of Real World Assets, with only 2% of the market. If you’re hoping for XRP to take over the world, you might want to adjust your expectations. It’s not quite there yet.

Can XRP make it to $3.60 again? Sure, it could, but given the current value locked in the XRPL (a whopping $100 million), it seems more like a distant dream than a sure thing.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be, nor should it be taken as, legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of CryptoMoon.

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2025-09-10 03:07