Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Will the Bears Triumph at $110K?

by

Key takeaways:

  • Short-term Bitcoin holders sold 20,000 BTC at a loss since Sunday, because apparently, they thought it was a great idea to panic and sell when the market gets a little twitchy. 🤦‍♂️

  • Technicals suggest pushing Bitcoin’s price below $100,000 could be a tough task for the bears, but hey, never underestimate the power of a good panic! 🐻🚀

Bitcoin (BTC) price has pulled back below $116,000, as uncertainty ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech led investors and traders to reevaluate risks and stay cautious. It’s like everyone’s waiting for the other shoe to drop, or in this case, the other bitcoin to plummet. 📉

Bitcoin “weak hands” back to realizing losses

Bitcoin has retraced 7.6% from its new all-time high of $24,500 set last week. Following this price action, onchain data from CryptoQuant show that over 20,000 BTC held by short-term holders (STHs) – investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days – moved to exchanges at a loss over the last three days. Because, you know, why not? 🤷‍♀️

More than 1,670 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a loss on Sunday, which surged to 23,520 BTC by Tuesday, coinciding with a 3.5% drop in BTC’s price to $114,400 from $118,600, per Glassnode data. It’s like a digital version of the Great Fire Sale of 2023, but with fewer actual flames. 🔥

The chart below shows that most Bitcoin sent to exchanges at a loss are from STHs, while LTHs-both in profit and loss-comprise just 10% of the total volume to exchanges.

This activity underscores a familiar behavioral pattern where short-term speculators panic-sell during market dips, frequently realizing losses. It’s like they’ve never heard of the phrase “buy low, sell high.” 🤔

The last time Bitcoin STHs moved into sustained loss realization was in January, “a period that marked the deepest correction of this cycle,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi.

“For the first time since that January drawdown, STH-SOPR multiples have slipped back below 1, indicating that short-term investors are once again realizing losses,” the analyst said in an Aug. 18 Quicktake note.

Historically, this has carried two implications: A weakening momentum where extended loss realization often precedes deeper corrective phases, or a healthy reset where “brief dips below 1 can flush out weak hands, clearing the path for more sustainable rallies,” Kripto Mevsimi explained, adding:

“This loss-selling event becomes a critical barometer of market health. If absorbed quickly, it could mirror past resets that fueled strong rebounds. If not, it risks signaling a momentum breakdown.”

Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 “tough fight for bears”

BTC’s latest drop below $115,000 has several traders and analysts calling for deeper price corrections to sub-$100,000 levels. Because, why not make things interesting? 🎢

For this to happen, “$BTC would need to break the $100K-$110K wall” built for over 100 days since breaking above the $100,000 mark on May 8, trading firm Swissblock said in an X post on Monday, adding:

“Not indestructible, but a tough fight for bears.”

For popular Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC, a close below Monday’s low at $114,700 could see the price drop toward the $110,000-$112,000 demand zone. Because, you know, why not add a little more drama to the mix? 🎭

Meanwhile, prediction market platform Polymarket expects more price weakness for the rest of the week. The most likely outcome for BTC is now $114,000 at 73%, while a close below $112,000 is at 39% probability, and 18% and 16% odds for a drop toward $110,000 and $108,000, respectively. It’s like a game of digital roulette, but with less spinning and more anxiety. 🎲

As CryptoMoon reported, Bitcoin could continue consolidating in the current range as many BTC investors may continue taking profit below all-time highs. Because, you know, sometimes the best strategy is to just sit tight and hope for the best. 🙏

Read More

2025-08-19 13:55