Whales Wake Up: Bitcoin’s Mid-Cycle Pivot Brews 🐳💰

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It seems that the grand rally of Bitcoin (BTC) has decided to take a little breather, slipping a modest 4% from its all-time highs. A typical pullback, one might say, in the midst of a bull market that’s as predictable as a Jeevesian muddle.

But here’s the rub: the on-chain signals are now suggesting a possible market pivot, as the whales have decided to break their silence and stir the pot. It’s like a game of musical chairs, but with digital coins and a lot more at stake.

Dormant Coins Flow, Whales Strike

CryptoQuant, in its latest analysis, has revealed that Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has surged to a staggering 28 million this week. This, dear reader, indicates that older Bitcoin, which had been lying dormant like a sleepy dragon, is now being transferred. Historically, this pattern is tied to large holders repositioning near cycle midpoints or local tops, much like a seasoned cricketer adjusting his stance before the big match.

Adding to the drama, Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) has spiked above $4 billion in realized profits, the highest since early Q2. This trend, reflecting significant profit-taking by whales and recent buyers, suggests that Bitcoin’s price, hovering around $117,000-$120,000, is either resilient or just a bit slow on the uptake. 🤔

Interestingly, this wave contrasts with late June, when NRPL data showed realized losses and modest profits. It seems the late entrants have thrown in the towel, while the long-term holders have been quietly accumulating. Now, the tables have turned: profits are the name of the game, and older coins are flowing into the market, aligning with Q3’s institutional rebalancing phase. It’s a strategic move, not a random shuffle.

Previously, simultaneous spikes in NRPL and CDD have been harbingers of volatility, including local tops, consolidations, or mid-cycle pauses. This means that the whales and large players are coordinating their activities, much like a well-rehearsed orchestra. Whether this leads to further distribution or an extended rally will depend on the follow-through in the coming weeks. But for now, the whales are active, profits are being locked in, and dormant supply is re-entering circulation. CryptoQuant suggests that the market may be at a hidden inflection point, lurking beneath the surface of stable Bitcoin price action.

With whales active and dormant coins re-entering circulation, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s key levels. The recent rally to $124K and the subsequent correction have turned this level into a local top, much like a mountain peak that’s been conquered and then abandoned.

Key Levels

Bitcoin has pulled back after hitting $123,000, a level that aligns with the +1 standard deviation of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price. As such, CryptoQuant states that the resistance now sits at $124K and $136K, the latter representing the +1 STD of holders with coins less than one month old. This cohort is often linked with overbought conditions when the crypto asset approaches this band, much like a crowded lifeboat on a stormy sea.

On the downside, $113K, which aligns with the +0.5 STD above the STH Realized Price, is emerging as a support during consolidations. Meanwhile, $111K is the average cost basis for new entrants, thereby creating a psychological floor if it corrects further. The most critical level remains $101K, the baseline STH Realized Price, which historically signals medium-term bullish structure and strongholder conviction if the crypto remains above it. It’s like the 50-yard line in a football game—crucial for both offense and defense.

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2025-07-16 11:47