ETH’s $3K Dream: A Tale of Bullish Hopes and Bearish Fears 🚀💰

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Amidst the tumultuous sea of market forces, Ethereum, that noble and oft-misunderstood cryptocurrency, has once again found itself on the cusp of a grand adventure. It has climbed, with a steady and almost defiant gait, to the lofty heights of $2,600, having rebounded from the depths of $2,220, a demand zone that seemed to offer a glimmer of hope in late June. Yet, as it stands, Ethereum is now testing the waters of a formidable supply area, a challenge that, if overcome, could herald a new era of bullish momentum. However, let us not be too hasty, for caution is the watchword near these current highs, lest we find ourselves victims of our own overzealous optimism.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

Ethereum, in its current state, hovers near the $2,600 mark, as the daily chart so eloquently illustrates. It has, with a strength that belies its recent struggles, reclaimed the 200-day moving average, a line in the sand around the $2,400 mark, and now trades slightly above it—a sign, if one is to believe in such things, of medium-term strength. Yet, the road ahead is fraught with peril. The recent rally, which seemed so promising, faltered near the $2,800 mark, a liquidity hunt that ended in a sharp reversal, forming a short-term lower high. Now, Ethereum finds itself once again in the shadow of the $2,800 supply zone, a barrier that, if breached, could open the gates to a new realm of possibilities. As long as Ethereum holds above the 100 and 200 moving averages and does not fall below $2,400, the structure remains bullish, a fragile hope in a world of uncertainty.

Momentum, that fickle friend of the trader, is gradually building, but a clean daily close above $2,700 is still needed to confirm the bullish thesis. The RSI, that wise old sage of technical indicators, hovers around 57–60, reflecting a moderate bullish momentum without signs of exhaustion. If the current consolidation resolves to the upside, Ethereum could revisit the $2,880 highs and, dare we dream, challenge the $3,000 zone. However, should it fail to break above, it may find itself rejected back toward the $2,400 support range, a humbling reminder of the market’s capricious nature.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is engaged in a high-stakes game of cat and mouse, forming a rising wedge just below the bearish order block around the $2,700 mark. The price has tapped into this order block, pressing against the wedge’s upper boundary, a moment of tension that could go either way. The 4H RSI, ever the optimist, is near 61, showing bullish momentum, but with rising wedge formations, a breakdown is always a risk if the bulls cannot push through resistance.

The key intraday level to watch is the $2,500–$2,550 region, a zone that aligns with the recent low and the lower boundary of the wedge. If Ethereum breaks below this zone with strong volume, it could signal a drop toward the $2,300 liquidity pool and fair value gap, a fall from grace that would be as swift as it is painful. On the flip side, a clean breakout above $2,700 with increasing volume would invalidate the wedge breakdown scenario and open up a path toward the $2,900 high and even further, a triumph of will over adversity.

On-Chain Analysis

Ethereum Exchange Reserve

Ethereum’s on-chain data, a treasure trove of insights, remains supportive. Exchange reserves have dropped to 18.93M, one of the lowest levels in recent years, a sign that the trend of accumulation and self-custody continues unabated. This reduction in immediate sell pressure from centralized exchanges has historically coincided with bullish price phases, provided, of course, that the macro sentiment aligns with the stars.

Market sentiment, that elusive and often fickle beast, has shifted slightly bullish, with Ethereum reclaiming its key moving averages and funding rates remaining neutral. However, the absence of explosive demand from retail or whales suggests that a breakout will likely require a catalyst, perhaps a short liquidation cascade, to accompany the spot market demand and push the price higher in the short term.

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2025-07-09 16:49