Israel’s Strikes on Iran: Strait of Hormuz Closure Odds Skyrocket!

OMG! Strait of Hormuz closure odds nearly double after Israel’s strikes on Iran! 😱

Strait of Hormuz Closure: A Threat to Global Trade 🚢

As of June 14, the likelihood of Iran blocking or closing the Strait of Hormuz has risen to a whopping 47%! That’s nearly double the 24% observed on June 11, just hours before Israel finally decided to hit Iran’s nuclear sites. 💣

Although Iran has never fully closed the Strait of Hormuz before, many fear that Israel’s actions may have pushed them over the edge. The Strait of Hormuz is super important for global trade because around one-fifth to one-third of the world’s total oil consumption passes through it. That’s a lot of oil, folks! 🛢️

In addition, a significant portion of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, especially from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), also goes through this shipping channel. If it’s closed or disrupted, even temporarily, oil prices could go through the roof, potentially pushing Brent crude well above $100-$120 per barrel. Yikes! 💸

Shortly after Israeli warplanes struck targets in Iran, oil prices surged past the $70 per barrel mark for the first time since April 3, 2025. Some experts fear that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could go even higher, and that’s not good news for anyone who likes to drive their car or heat their home. 🚗🔥

The surge in the odds meanwhile points to growing fears that the latest tit-for-tat military attacks between Tehran and Tel Aviv will escalate into a full-blown war. In the last exchange between the two bitter enemies, the strikes appeared to be choreographed, with both Israel and Iran getting advance warning of the pending strikes. At the time, both countries appeared not to cross red lines set by either, resulting in the confrontation ending with limited damage. But this time, it seems like things might be different. 🤔

In Israel’s latest strikes, Iranian nuclear sites, including one in Natanz, were struck, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting that the above-ground enrichment plant was completely destroyed. Many global mainstream media outlets reported that Iran’s air defenses were also destroyed during the dawn strikes, although such reports appeared to be undercut by videos circulating on social media purporting to show these defenses engaging incoming missiles. 📹

Attacks on nuclear sites and other vital infrastructure suggest that Israel has crossed Tehran’s red line, an act that increases the prospects of Iran finally acting on its threat. However, closing the chokepoint would devastate Iran’s own economy and may provoke a response by other countries dependent on it, including the United States. 🌎

2025-06-14 21:57

Strait of Hormuz Closure: A Threat to Global Trade 🚢

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