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Bitcoin’s Drama: Will It Skyrocket, Stumble, or Just Laze Around?

BBG News
  • Three crossroads for Bitcoin, and not a single signpost in sight. Triple the fun, or triple the trouble? 😂
  • Since Bitcoin just tripped and dusted itself off, odds of it faceplanting again soon are slim—unless, of course, gravity gets a boost.

May dawned, and with it, Bitcoin [BTC] stretched its arms like a sun-baked farmhand, leaping over that old wooden fence at $97,406. If coins could strut, this was it.

See, this break over the stubborn line—the one BTC kept chewing on, spitting out, and circling back to since February—well, folks started thinking the bull was finally running. Not the running-of-the-bulls kind, but the “I-told-you-so” BTC kind.

But as is the way on the wide road, victory has its shadows. For every bull leaning against a fence post, a bear lurks under the bleachers. Bitcoin now sits, legs dangling, above the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price, a number with all the poetry of a dusty ledger: $93,342.

Back on a cool April day, pile up 155 days, these coins crawled out from under the water like stranded fishermen, suddenly sitting pretty with unrealized profits. Bless their patient hearts.

Now that STH line is a sturdy floor, at least until the termites show up.

So, are we looking at a new all-time high? Maybe. But expecting Bitcoin to stroll upward without tripping over its own laces is like expecting a coyote to ignore a chicken. Don’t count your gains before they hatch. 🐔

Three dusty crossroads on Bitcoin’s winding trail

Axel Adler, a crypto wrangler, has been tracking Bitcoin’s “momentum ratio”—a phrase as mysterious as a coyote’s howl at midnight. Having leapt the $97k hurdle, BTC’s got three trails ahead. Which one does it stumble down?

Currently, BTC’s on-chain momentum tiptoes into the “start” rally zone, ratio clocking in around 0.8, or 80% if you want to sound fancy at dinner.

The market’s itching for action. How itchy depends on which direction that ratio sprints off in the coming weeks.

If the momentum ratio kicks off its boots and soars north of 1.0—well, the charts will be singing, NUPL and MVRV waving their hats in the air, and the price might just hitch a ride to the $150k–$175k fairgrounds. 🚀

But, if momentum slips under 0.75, that’s when the short-term folks start selling and buying lattes, dragging poor BTC back down to $70k–$85k, where the coffee is cold and the WiFi spotty.

Third option: the ratio loafs around between 0.8 and 1.0, and BTC lurks in a broad, lazy range from $90k to $110k. Cue the sound of traders tapping their fingers and humming tunelessly. No new fortune-seekers, just a waiting game at the truck stop.

Is Bitcoin about to put on its running shoes?

If Bitcoin does what bull markets do and that ratio holds above 1.0, don’t be shocked if we see fireworks up to $150k–$175k. Remember 2017? BTC multiplied like rabbits in spring. In 2021? Tripled, just to rub it in. NUPL and MVRV were downright euphoric—a party with too many guests and not enough chairs.

Right now, MVRV lounges at 2.16, sipping lemonade. Historically, markets lose their minds closer to 3.9, so there’s plenty of room for more shenanigans before things get silly.

Translation: nobody’s dancing on tables just yet. 🎉

NUPL’s perched at 0.54, which, in crypto-speak, says “I’m feeling good, but I haven’t mortgaged the farm.” It would need to slide toward 0.74 to flash the “top’s in, grab your hats!” sign.

If fresh money doesn’t show up with hay bales, expect BTC to do the two-step sideways between $90k and $110k—lots of noise, not much action.

Truth is, with one correction already in the bag, the bear case for a deeper nosedive looks about as convincing as a snake oil salesman’s pitch.

So squint at those charts, keep half an eye on the horizon, and remember: whichever road BTC chooses, you’ll have a tale for the next campfire. Or at least a grumpy tweet. 😏

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2025-05-02 22:08

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