So, economist Alex Krüger—probably someone you pretend to have heard of at dinner parties—has decided to start stripping his portfolio bare because, (brace yourselves), capitalism has decided to do a dramatic fainting spell again. 🎭
He took to X (formerly Twitter, formerly that app you deleted, then reinstalled, then regretted reinstalling) to declare that the US is only just getting started on a “severe deceleration”—which is economist-speak for “the economy’s about to do the splits, and not the sexy kind.”
Apparently, things start getting spicy in June, with all the juicy data showing up in July. Like Christmas in July, but everything’s on fire. 🔥
But don’t worry, he also says his “upside risk” (stop giggling) play is Bitcoin, because, and I quote (with barely one eyebrow raised),
“Granted, I am biased, but do think that it has started to trade as a risk/gold hybrid (still more weighted towards risk) and therefore it may provide a very rare ‘tails I win, heads I win as well’ risk profile. The jury is still out.”
Translation: he’s betting on a coin toss where apparently both sides are winners, but he’s not entirely sure if the coin exists. Cute.
He continues, waxing poetic with:
“Mid-term, I do not know if the second half of the year will be a raging bull market or a crash and burn 2008 style market. Both are ironically possible. We will have to see in what direction and how aggressively Trump decides to swing. And what other measures he pushes through (e.g. tax cuts). My base case scenario is somewhere in the middle. That said, the most important thing here is that Trump has introduced a massive left tail that it would normally not exist.”
Basically: economic crystal balls are looking murky and absolutely no one knows if we’re buying yachts or moving back in with our parents. Trump’s involved, so, you know, buckle up (or don’t, depending on your risk profile and relationship with chaos). 🚗👍
Bonus advice: don’t chase altcoins. Really. Just… don’t.
“There is zero reason to FOMO in a Trump 2.0 world. There will be dips. Many dips.”
The future is coming, wear a helmet. 🪖
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2025-05-01 15:04