Iran Conflict Forces Bitcoin’s Identity Crisis: Is It More Than Just ‘Digital Gold’?

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Beyond ‘digital <a href="https://bbg-news.com/gold">gold</a>,’ Iran conflict forces a rethink of the nature of <a href="https://bbg-news.com/btc-usd/">bitcoin</a>Markets

What to know:

  • Bitcoin has surged about 12% during the Iran war even as stocks and gold fell, challenging its reputation as merely a high-beta tech asset.
  • Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues investors are now valuing bitcoin as both “digital gold” and a call option on its future use as a real currency, a shift accelerated by Iran’s decision to demand bitcoin tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • While skeptics note Iran’s move reflects sanctions pressure more than genuine preference and key payment infrastructure remains nascent, markets appear to be pricing bitcoin differently than in previous geopolitical shocks.

Bitcoin’s strong performance during the conflict with Iran is unusual, and Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, believes he understands the reason.

Since February 28th, when airstrikes began in the U.S. and Israel, Bitcoin – the leading cryptocurrency – has increased in value by 12%. This is a surprising move, as it happened while the stock market (S&P 500) decreased by 1% and gold, a traditional safe haven asset, fell by 10%. Traditionally viewed as a risky tech investment, Bitcoin’s recent performance is causing investors to reconsider its role during times of uncertainty.

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Hougan described Bitcoin as essentially two different types of investments. The first is the well-known idea of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” aiming to capture a portion of the $38 trillion market for assets people hold to preserve wealth.

He’s also betting on bitcoin becoming a widely used currency, which he describes as a call option that’s just starting to gain attention from investors. Until recently, most have considered this possibility unlikely.

The situation in Iran has complicated things regarding a recent financial projection. Iran announced it will charge ships a fee of $1 per barrel of oil – payable in bitcoin – to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which amounts to approximately $20 million daily.

This tax payment marks one of the earliest instances of a country actually using bitcoin to handle a real-world transaction, though the situation wasn’t perfect.

“In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative,” Hougan wrote, tracing the shift back to the U.S. kicking Russia off the SWIFT network in 2022, a move France’s finance minister called a financial “nuclear bomb” at the time.

The options framework is what makes the argument worth watching.

Option prices rise when there’s a greater chance they’ll become profitable, or when the price of the underlying asset fluctuates more wildly. According to Hougan, the situation in Iran created both of these conditions for Bitcoin – it increased the likelihood of Bitcoin being used as a real currency, and it also made the global financial system more unstable.

Based on what I’m seeing, it looks like Bitcoin could actually *increase* in value when there’s global political instability, especially if it involves tensions between the US and China. What’s really interesting is the idea that the potential market for Bitcoin is much bigger than just people looking for an alternative to gold – it could appeal to a far wider range of investors.

As a crypto investor, I see the situation with Iran and Bitcoin a bit differently. It’s not that they *want* to use crypto, it’s that they’re basically forced to because of sanctions. It highlights how limited the US dollar‘s reach really is, rather than proving Bitcoin is ready to be a truly neutral payment system. Honestly, the tech just isn’t there yet – things like reliable stablecoins, easy cross-border payments, and even governments adopting digital wallets are still in the very early stages of development.

However, Hougan’s main point remains valid. Bitcoin is behaving differently in the market during this current conflict compared to past global events, and simply calling it “digital gold” doesn’t fully account for this change.

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2026-04-15 18:59