Star Wars’ Next Movie Projected To Hit New Low For Disney Era

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Lucasfilm might be realizing that their latest Star Wars offering, The Mandalorian & Grogu, isn’t performing as well as hoped. The film, a theatrical sequel to the popular Disney+ series starring Pedro Pascal, arrives in theaters next month. Since The Rise of Skywalker and the pandemic, Star Wars has primarily lived on Disney+, and Lucasfilm hasn’t been able to successfully launch any new films. There’s growing worry about how well The Mandalorian & Grogu will do in theaters, with early signs pointing to limited interest and a lackluster marketing effort.

A new report from Box Office Theory predicts that The Mandalorian & Grogu will earn around $71 million during its opening weekend (May 22-24). This would be the lowest opening weekend for any Star Wars film released by Disney, falling short of Solo: A Star Wars Story by $13 million and The Rise of Skywalker by a significant $106 million.

  • Episode VII: The Force Awakens – $247.97 million
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – $155.08 million
  • Episode VIII: The Last Jedi – $220.01 million
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story – $84.42 million
  • Episode IV: The Rise of Skywalker – $177.38 million

Compared to other recent Disney blockbusters aimed at a similar audience, this film’s opening weekend figure is lower than projections for all of Marvel’s 2025 releases, including Captain America: Brave New World ($88.5 million), The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($118 million), and Thunderbolts ($76 million) – which is the closest comparison of the three.

Despite their differences, The Mandalorian & Grogu and Thunderbolts share a similar production approach. Just like The Mandalorian continued the story from a Disney+ series, Thunderbolts heavily relied on connections to streaming shows like The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and Hawkeye. This reliance on streaming tie-ins is a bit concerning, given Thunderbolts‘ disappointing performance.

Okay, let’s talk box office. Thunderbolts really fizzled, and honestly, I’m starting to worry about The Mandalorian & Grogu. Early reactions back in May were decent, but if people don’t start raving about it, it could follow the same path as Thunderbolts. That film only brought in $382.43 million worldwide, which is dangerously close to the $392.92 million Solo: A Star Wars Story managed – and we all know how that one performed.

How The Mandalorian & Grogu Flopping Would Change Star Wars (And Hollywood)

Rumors suggested that a planned movie connecting the stories of Dave Filoni’s shows, including The Mandalorian & Grogu, might be canceled if that series doesn’t perform well. If that happens, the adaptation of Heir to the Empire would likely become a limited series on Disney+. The movie was first announced at Star Wars Celebration in 2023, but we haven’t heard much about it since.

The future of the “MandoVerse” currently looks unclear. Beyond a second season of Ahsoka, Disney+ doesn’t seem to have any other shows in the works. After The Mandalorian Season 3 didn’t meet expectations in 2023, the interconnected storyline has lost steam, and it might be difficult for upcoming releases in 2026 to recapture audience interest.

Even if the recent seasons of The Mandalorian & Grogu and Ahsoka weren’t as strong, it’s hard to believe Lucasfilm would completely abandon the stories they’ve started. However, if those shows underperformed, the studio might quickly move towards adapting the Heir to the Empire storyline.

The popularity of The Mandalorian & Grogu raises questions about whether it was the best choice to break the seven-year gap in Star Wars theatrical releases. With fans hoping for fresh stories in the Star Wars universe, next year’s Starfighter, featuring Ryan Gosling, might be the key to reigniting excitement for the franchise.

If the sequel to The Mandalorian doesn’t perform well in theaters, it could cause significant problems for Hollywood. It might make studios reconsider the idea of linking movies and TV shows, as it would suggest the audiences for each are too distinct.

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2026-04-13 21:05