XRP Price Rally Faces 1.2 Billion Token Wall as Buying Power Fades

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<a href="https://bbg-news.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a> Price Rally Needs to Absorb 1.2 Billion Tokens, but Buying Power Is Fading

On April 6th, XRP was trading at $1.33, a 3% increase over the last day. However, analysts are watching a potential “head and shoulders” pattern forming on the daily price chart. The right shoulder of this pattern is currently developing, and for the price to continue rising, it will need to overcome a large resistance level where 1.24 billion XRP tokens are being held.

The recent price increase is happening with significantly less buying activity than we saw in late March. This makes it unclear whether the rise can continue, overcoming existing sellers, or if it’s just a temporary rally before prices fall again.

A Right Shoulder Is Forming, and Two EMAs Stand in the Way

Looking at the daily price chart, a distinct head and shoulders pattern is forming. The left shoulder appeared in late February, the peak (head) reached around $1.60 in mid-March, and a right shoulder is now taking shape as the price stabilizes around $1.33. The neckline for this pattern is at $1.26. If the price falls below $1.26, it could trigger a drop of almost 19%.

For XRP to show signs of recovery and potentially reverse its current downward trend, it needs to rise above two key moving averages. These averages, which track price changes and emphasize recent data, are currently at $1.35 (the 20-day EMA) and $1.42 (the 50-day EMA). The last time XRP cleanly surpassed the 20-day EMA was on March 13th, and shortly after, the price increased by over 15%, also breaking through the 50-day EMA.

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If the price closes above $1.35 each day, it would move above a key moving average and suggest a short-term upward trend. However, if the price rises but stays below $1.60, it still fits within a potential ‘head and shoulders’ pattern, meaning it might form the right side of the pattern instead of breaking out. Looking at recent sales data, we can see exactly where the price is likely to encounter resistance and why it might be hard to push through.

1.2 Billion Tokens and Fading Conviction

The XRP Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows where most XRP was last bought at different price points, revealing two key price levels that are currently important.

The price of XRP is currently finding support between $1.31 and $1.32, where a large group of holders – around 719 million XRP worth – initially bought their coins. This group effectively acts as a price floor, particularly supporting the recent price peak. If these holders continue to believe in XRP and don’t sell, the price should stay around its current level.

If this group starts selling, the price could drop rapidly, potentially breaking through the support level at $1.26.

A larger group of XRP holders, with around 1.24 billion tokens, is sitting between $1.45 and $1.47. This represents a significant barrier that the price needs to overcome to rise substantially. These holders initially bought at higher prices, and may sell their XRP if the price nears their original purchase price to avoid losses. To move past this potential selling pressure of 1.24 billion tokens, consistent and strong buying activity is necessary.

The Exchange Net Position Change shows how much XRP is moving in and out of exchanges, giving us a clue about potential buying activity. When more XRP leaves exchanges than enters – a negative reading – it suggests people are holding onto their tokens, which is a sign of accumulation. This metric reached a high of about 117 million XRP leaving exchanges around late March, showing strong belief in future price increases. However, by April 5th, this number decreased to 57 million XRP, a drop of around 51%.

The strong buying that drove prices up in mid-March has weakened considerably. There’s a large amount of tokens available for sale – 1.24 billion – and less confidence from exchanges to absorb them. This makes it difficult for the price to continue rising. If new buyers don’t step in, the price could fall to around $1.45-$1.47.

XRP Price Levels Between a Breakout and a Breakdown

The daily price chart with technical levels from the completed swing frames every critical level.

The first challenge for the price is $1.35, which is also a key moving average. If the price closes above $1.35, it could signal a similar upward trend to what we saw on March 13th, potentially leading to a 15% increase. If it breaks through, the next price levels to watch are $1.40 and $1.44, with $1.48 being a crucial point to confirm the trend. A close above $1.48 would suggest that a large group of tokens previously sold between $1.45 and $1.47 either didn’t sell, or that any selling was quickly matched by new buyers.

XRP needs to climb above $1.60 to demonstrate real upward momentum. Breaking through this level would cancel out the existing bearish ‘head and shoulders’ pattern and signal a potential shift to a bullish trend.

If the price doesn’t rise above $1.35, it suggests a continued downward trend, with immediate support around $1.26-$1.27 being vulnerable. A decisive fall below $1.26 could trigger a significant price drop, potentially down to $1.03.

If XRP closes the day above $1.48, it suggests the recent selling pressure of 1.2 billion tokens has been overcome, and could mean the predicted price drop isn’t happening. But, if the price falls below $1.26, it confirms the expected downward trend and could lead to a price of $1.03.

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2026-04-06 17:01