How Avengers: Doomsday Losing IMAX To Dune 3 Will Impact Its Box Office, Explained

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A potential clash at the box office is brewing in Hollywood. Two highly anticipated films, and , are currently set to premiere on the same day – December 18th. Typically, major movies avoid opening on the same weekend to prevent competing for the same audience, and for nearly a year, experts expected one of these films to change its release date. Many believed would be the one to move, considering the success of the Avengers franchise. However, as months passed, neither film altered its plans.

The first trailer for Dune 3 revealed that the film will be released exclusively in IMAX for a limited time, because it was partially shot using IMAX cameras. This means Avengers: Doomsday has been removed from IMAX’s planned 2026 releases, except in a few international locations. Following the success of Oppenheimer in IMAX, this loss of premium screens is a significant setback for Marvel. It could even lead them to delay Doomsday, potentially moving it to the December 11th release date recently opened up by the shifting of Jumanji 4.

But is IMAX really a deciding factor in this “Dunesday” box office battle?

Avengers: Doomsday Is Bigger Than Dune: Part 3 (And It’s Keeping Both From Moving)

To start, let’s get one thing straight: IMAX or no, Avengers: Doomsday is definitely the bigger fish.

According to data from Greenlight Analytics’ surveys, Avengers: Doomsday is currently generating more excitement than Dune: Part 3. More people are aware of Doomsday (45% vs. 41%), and they express significantly greater interest in seeing it (57% to 41%). Half of those surveyed plan to see Doomsday in theaters, compared to 38% for Dune 3.

These audience scores are likely to shift as marketing for each film continues. The latest surveys were taken after promotion for Avengers had started, but before the trailer for Dune: Part 3 was released, so the difference in scores might not be as big as it seems now. However, Greenlight’s data indicates Doomsday is resonating more with younger viewers and attracting a more even split between genders, while Dune currently appeals more to male audiences. Right now, Doomsday appears to be in a stronger position to succeed at the box office.

These promising early numbers likely explain why Disney and Warner Bros. are sticking with their current release date. The film Doomsday seems set to be a success regardless, making it less appealing to move it from a potentially very profitable time. This pre-holiday slot has already proven successful with the Avatar sequels and Spider-Man: No Way Home, which earned almost $2 billion worldwide. Marvel is clearly hoping to repeat that success, as Avengers: Secret Wars is also planned for release during this period in 2027.

The success of Dune: Part Three will depend on how much its core fans engage with it, not necessarily on reaching a huge audience. Because of this, keeping the film exclusive to IMAX theaters for a limited time is crucial. Selling premium-priced IMAX tickets will help ensure the film is successful, even if it doesn’t reach as many viewers. The filmmakers are hesitant to change the release date because doing so could mean losing the IMAX commitment, and that’s a strong reason to stick with the current plan, despite the challenges of releasing a film on a specific day of the week (‘Dunesday’).

IMAX Matters – But To Some Movies More Than Others

Cinelytic, a company known for its highly accurate box office predictions using artificial intelligence, recently studied how IMAX impacts movie ticket sales. Their analysis of 25 big releases between 2015 and 2025 shows that IMAX doesn’t always boost overall attendance; sometimes it just moves revenue from regular screens to IMAX screens. In other words, the success of an IMAX release really depends on the movie itself.

Cinelytic points out a difference between movies originally filmed for IMAX, like Oppenheimer and Sinners, and those that are adapted to the format later, such as Mission: Impossible – Fallout and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. Films designed for IMAX from the start are more closely tied to the format, while converted films simply aim to profit from being shown in it. This distinction impacts how well they perform at the box office. Movies originally made for IMAX generally earn a larger percentage of their revenue from IMAX showings and see a bigger increase in ticket sales when shown in that format. While converted films still benefit from being on IMAX screens, they don’t experience the same level of audience growth.

When looking at Cinelytic’s forecasts, the difference between the potential performance of Dune 3 and Doomsday is significant. Dune 3, designed for IMAX, is expected to earn 20% of its total revenue from premium IMAX screens, thanks to its exclusive release in those theaters. Even more importantly, IMAX is predicted to boost the film’s overall box office by 12.9% – a remarkably high increase for this type of movie. This explains why Warner Bros. was willing to potentially cause a scheduling conflict (Dunesday) to maintain its IMAX release dates.

Unlike some films, Avengers: Doomsday isn’t expected to significantly benefit from IMAX screenings. Analysts predict it will earn around 7% of its revenue from IMAX, which is typical for superhero movies, but its overall boost from the premium format will likely be only 3.5%. This is lower than usual for the genre, suggesting IMAX is just an added bonus rather than a key reason people will see the film. While losing IMAX screens for the first few weeks will impact earnings somewhat, it won’t be as damaging as it would be for a film like Dune: Part 3.

Ideally, both movies would do better if they simply avoided opening on the same day. However, the issue of IMAX screens seems more likely to prolong this disagreement than to make either film back down. If neither studio moves its release date up a week to take advantage of the delay of Jumanji, they’ll both have to rely on hoping there’s enough audience demand for both films.

There’s good reason to be hopeful about box office performance. Cinelytic’s data indicates the risk of films taking away audience from each other is lower than expected during this time of year. While the opening weekends of Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part 3 might be slightly affected, the holiday season could lead to overall strong performance for both films.

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2026-03-26 21:41