Whales in a Storm: AXS Rally Hits a Snag, But Are They Swimming or Sinking?

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Well, bless my stars and garters, the Axie Infinity price has taken a tumble, and the whales are splashing about like cats in a bathtub. Since its grand breakout on January 21, AXS shot up a whopping 41%, only to slam into a wall at $3.00. A rally as swift and smooth as a greased pig, until the wheels came off. Now, the price is down 17% day-on-day, but those big fish are still nibbling. What in tarnation are they thinking?

Here’s the pickle: the whales are diving back in, but the charts are singing a different tune-one that sounds an awful lot like “pullback risk.” Will they swim to safety, or are they just bait for a bigger shark?

A Bearish Harami: When Buyers Get Cold Feet

The first sign of trouble came from the daily AXS candle structure-a bearish harami, no less. That’s when a little red candle curls up inside a big green one, like a mouse in a bear’s den. It’s a surefire sign that buyers are losing their gumption and sellers are starting to flex their muscles.

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Now, Axie Infinity has been down this road before. On January 18, a similar harami showed up after a hearty advance, and lo and behold, AXS took a 26% nosedive. Buyers backed off, and sellers took the opportunity to cash in. So, could history be repeating itself? With AXS already down 17% in 24 hours, it’s starting to look like the upside party might be over-at least for a spell.

Whales Are Buying-But Is It a Fool’s Errand?

On-chain data tells a curious tale. Those Axie Infinity whales had been lightening their load during the earlier rally, selling off like it was going out of style. But now, they’ve changed their tune. Since January 22, whale wallets have added about 160,000 tokens, worth roughly $430,000. Are they betting on a comeback, or just throwing good money after bad?

This adds a layer of support, sure, but it doesn’t cancel out the short-term risk from that pesky bearish harami. Exchange flow data paints a mixed picture. On January 15, Axie Infinity saw a flood of 4.07 million tokens hit exchanges-a clear sign of selling pressure. But by January 18, the tide turned, with 465,000 tokens leaving exchanges, showing buyers were still in the game. As of January 24, outflows have slowed to 112,000 tokens. Buyers are still in control, but their enthusiasm is waning. Profit-taking has begun, even as whales selectively add. Are they making a smart move, or just swimming against the current?

MFI Divergence and Price Levels: The Real Deciders

Momentum indicators are waving red flags. The Money Flow Index, which tracks buying and selling pressure, was trending lower even as the price climbed between January 17 and January 23. It’s like the rally was running on fumes. Dips weren’t being bought with the same gusto as before, and the AXS price started to slide.

From a price perspective, key levels were in the spotlight. On the upside, Axie Infinity needed to reclaim and hold above $3.00 (a psychological barrier that had already rejected the price), then push through $3.11. A break above $3.11 could have reopened the path to $4.02. But that didn’t happen.

On the downside, $2.54 was the critical support level, aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and a historical reaction zone. AXS lost $2.54, and the correction began. Now, the pullback could deepen to $2.20 or even $1.98, leaving those whales high and dry-or should I say, deep in the red.

So, there you have it. Whales are buying, but momentum is fading. Buyers are still in control, but they’re not exactly firing on all cylinders. If Axie Infinity can reclaim $2.54 and rebuild momentum, the rally might extend. If not, the market could be in for a deeper correction before the next leg up. Will the whales swim to safety, or will they be left floundering in the depths? Only time will tell, folks.

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2026-01-25 09:21