Bitcoin quickly recovered from a drop to $60,000 in early February, surging to nearly $83,000 just last week – a gain of 38%. This rapid increase led analysts to wonder if the recent downturn was over.
Bitcoin’s price has been fluctuating recently, dropping to $78,000 yesterday – its lowest point in two weeks. Experts are now less certain that the price has hit its lowest point, and they’ve shared some concerns.
P/L at High Levels
Ali Martinez recently pointed out that the average trader is currently seeing a 17% profit margin. He views this as a potential warning signal, as it’s the highest level since October 2025 – right before a significant market crash that resulted in over $19 billion in losses and a lengthy price decline, ultimately dropping the market from $126,000 to $60,000 (a 53% decrease). Martinez suggests that with investors now holding considerable profits, they may be inclined to sell.
As a crypto investor, what really caught my eye is looking back at past performance. The last time we saw company profit margins at 17% while Bitcoin was struggling to break through its 200-day moving average was back in March 2022. It’s a pattern I’m definitely watching closely.
That particular pattern indicated the precise point when the price reached its peak before the downward trend continued strongly.
Doctor Profit Still Bearish
Dr. Profit is one of the few analysts who hasn’t altered his negative outlook on the market. He predicted a downturn starting around the peak in October 2025, and recent actions confirm his belief – he’s been betting against the cryptocurrency by shorting it when it was trading at $120,000.
The analyst also cautioned last week that a rise back to $80,000 could be a false rally. He now predicts the price could fall to $50,000, or even lower, if the overall economic situation deteriorates.
He recently cautioned that many traders aren’t prepared for future market conditions. His analysis suggests Bitcoin is likely heading towards the $50,000 level.
$BTC: No one is ready for whats coming , the current status is as follow:
1. Short from 120k
2. Long from 71k (30% Closed)
3. Long from 75k (30% Closed)
4. Shorts accumulated at 82k (30%)
5. Remaining short orders active (70%)Again, most not ready for whats coming
— Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) May 16, 2026
History to Be Invalidated
Rekt Capital also questioned whether Bitcoin has reached its lowest price for this market cycle, expressing significant doubt. The analyst pointed out that if investors think Bitcoin won’t fall below $60,000, they’re essentially predicting certain things will happen next.
– The Bear Market has shortened to just 1/3 of the usual time it takes for Bitcoin to bottom
Bear Market corrections are now about 25% less severe than they used to be, a much bigger change than the typical 10% difference seen across entire Bear Market cycles.
The recent market downturn wasn’t the end of the previous bull market; it was a typical correction within that ongoing trend. In fact, this bull market cycle has already lasted over 200 days longer than usual.
According to analyst Rekt Capital, if bitcoin has truly hit its lowest price, it would challenge established patterns in its market cycles. The analyst believes this is unlikely, but possible, and requires further evidence to confirm.
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2026-05-17 09:00