🦃 Bitcoin’s Thanksgiving Feast: Will It Gobble Up Gains or Choke on Data? 🤑

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Darling, fasten your seatbelts! Bitcoin is about to face a week more dramatic than a Coward play, with three delayed US economic reports threatening to stir the pot before Thanksgiving. 🍗 Will it be a feast or famine for crypto? Only the Fed’s whims and a dash of macroeconomic mischief will tell.

These economic tidbits arrive at a moment more crucial than a well-timed bon mot, with December rate cut probabilities flirting at 70%. Bitcoin, ever the sensitive soul, is quivering like a debutante at her first ball, reacting to every macroeconomic whisper. This week, my dears, is not for the faint-hearted.

Delayed Data: The Government’s Little Shutdown Shenanigan 🎭

Thanks to a 43-day government shutdown-a farce worthy of a Coward comedy-economic indicators are piling up like uninvited guests at a cocktail party. 🍸 MarketWatch’s calendar reveals Tuesday, November 25, at 8:30 a.m. ET will serve up September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI), while Wednesday brings initial jobless claims. How utterly inconvenient.

Markets, poor darlings, are starved for up-to-date consumer spending and inflation metrics. The last retail sales report showed a robust 0.6% monthly gain, while PPI took a 0.1% tumble in August. Core PPI, at 2.8% year-over-year, offers a baseline for wholesale inflation-or, as I like to call it, the cost of keeping up appearances.

Retail Sales: Will the Tills Ring or Remain Silent? 🛍️

For September, retail sales are expected to rise a modest 0.3% month-over-month. Anything less, my pets, could signal economic cooling-a chill that might send the Fed into a dovish flutter. For Bitcoin, weaker spending often means rate cut speculation, which weakens the dollar and may give crypto a little lift. How utterly predictable.

Recent antics illustrate this perfectly. Bitcoin plunged to seven-month lows after robust US jobs data dashed rate cut hopes, causing spot Bitcoin ETFs to hemorrhage nearly $1 billion-the second-largest outflow on record. Labor market strength, it seems, is crypto’s kryptonite.

Bitcoin hit 7-month lows after strong U.S. jobs data cut rate-cut hopes.
Spot BTC ETFs saw nearly $1B outflows, the second-largest on record.
Bitwise also launched its spot XRP ETF, adding fuel to the altcoin ETF wave.
Full recap:

– GSG (@gsg_digital) November 24, 2025

PPI: The Last Inflation Gasp Before December 🎭

The PPI release is the pièce de résistance, the final inflation data before October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report. Markets are pricing in a 67.3% chance of a December rate cut, but new data could upend this delicate balance.

A higher-than-expected PPI, especially in core measures, could send December cut odds tumbling below 60%, strengthening the dollar and putting crypto in a spot of bother. September’s consensus calls for a 0.3% monthly PPI increase. Anything higher would challenge the notion of moderating price pressures-how gauche!

Jobless Claims: Holiday Volatility, Anyone? 🎄

Wednesday’s initial jobless claims will provide the latest labor market update before Thanksgiving. Analysts expect 225,000 new claims for the week ending November 22, a slight rise from 220,000 previously. Any figure above 225,000 may suggest labor market weakness, a trigger for Bitcoin rebounds as easing hopes rise.

The latest jobless claims report shows a labor market that is still stable but gradually cooling. Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell by 8k to 220k (consensus was probably around 50k higher), and the 4-week average edged down to 224.25k. Layoffs remain low by historical…

– Macro84 (@macro84) November 21, 2025

Employment statistics remain the Fed’s obsession, with Chair Jerome Powell insisting on labor market health as inflation’s foil. The reporting schedule adds a twist: markets close Thursday for Thanksgiving and operate shortened hours Friday, amplifying volatility if Wednesday’s data surprises. Bitcoin, ever the night owl, will trade on regardless.

Other indicators add to the drama. The US Empire State Manufacturing Survey surged to 18.7 this month, the highest in a year and well above the 6.0 forecast. This could hint at economic resilience, complicating the rate cut narrative. How utterly inconvenient.

– ℏ &⚡️4freedom (@sound0ffreed0m) November 24, 2025

The collision of these data points makes this period more crucial than a Coward climax. Bitcoin’s correlation with Fed policy expectations has tightened in 2025, turning every economic release into a potential price swing. As markets digest postponed September data and fresh November labor figures, the outlook will drive crypto action through year-end.

So, my darlings, pour yourselves a martini and brace for a week of economic theatrics. Will Bitcoin feast or famine? Only time-and a dash of Coward wit-will tell. 🥂

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2025-11-24 13:11