Movies

Who will win at this year’s Oscars? Here’s what the stats say

BBG News

Once more, we find ourselves at the season where the Oscars occur over the weekend. If you’re aiming to leave an impression on your peers, you could confidently predict the major award recipients of the evening.

Over the past weekend, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards occurred, marking the culmination of the major predictor awards. Historically, these award winners influence the outcomes at the Oscars.

In simpler terms, while we aren’t claiming absolute certainty, Digital Spy often gets it right when predicting the winners in the six main categories (Best Picture, Directing, and all four acting awards).

In the previous year, we accurately predicted five out of six winners, with “Oppenheimer” leading the pack. However, it seems this year’s Oscars are shaping up to be a more competitive field, making it less likely for one movie to completely dominate.

Based on past trends, here’s who we predict might take home the awards for Best Picture, Directing, and each of the acting categories at this year’s Oscars.

Best Picture

As a passionate film enthusiast, here are the nominees that have caught my attention: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez’s work, I’m Still Here, The Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. These titles promise an intriguing cinematic journey!

Likely winner: Conclave

This year’s Best Picture award is hard to forecast because both films, “Anora” and “Conclave“, have a strong chance of taking home the prize on the night, given their past accomplishments.

Anora took the lead in the race following her victories at the Director’s Guild of America (DGA), Writer’s Guild of America (WGA), and Producer’s Guild of America (PGA) Awards, each in the Best Theatrical Motion Picture category.

Over the course of its 35-year existence, the PGA Award winner has coincided with the Oscar winner on 25 occasions. However, only one film, “Brokeback Mountain,” has managed to win all three major awards (Directors Guild of America Award, Producers Guild of America Award, and Academy Award) but did not take home the Best Picture Oscar at the Oscars.

Good odds, you might think.

Indeed, the ensemble cast of Conclave triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards in the category of Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Interestingly, it’s worth noting that when this SAG ensemble award has been bestowed upon a film, it has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 15 times out of 29 instances.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that “Conclave” not only clinched the title of Best Film at the BAFTAs but also shared this honor with eight other movies that won the SAG ensemble award and the BAFTA for Best Film. Remarkably, seven out of these nine films have subsequently been awarded the prestigious Best Picture accolade (as pointed out by Ben Zauzmer).

By the way, what film managed to surpass the acclaim of “Brokeback Mountain” and still missed out on the PGA, DGA, and WGA awards? That would be “Crash,” as it had already claimed the ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) before the Oscars.

As a fan, I find it intriguing that the film “Anora” could potentially benefit from the fact that Edward Berger, the director of “Conclave,” wasn’t nominated for Directing at the Oscars. It’s quite uncommon for a movie to win Best Picture without even having its director recognized in this category, which might increase “Anora’s” chances of taking home the top prize.

As a movie enthusiast, I can’t help but notice the recent Best Picture wins by films like Argo, Green Book, and CODA – all of which didn’t receive director nominations. This trend doesn’t exactly spell doom for Conclave just yet.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that the Best Picture award is unique because it’s decided through a preferential voting system, with all Academy members participating. This often means that the movie most favored by many rather than deeply loved by a few has a higher chance of winning. In this case, Anora, which might be seen as more controversial, could potentially lose out to the seemingly safer choice, Conclave.

In this case, we’ve chosen “Conclave,” leaning towards that option based on the odds, but it’s essentially a 50/50 situation. We wouldn’t be shocked if “Anora” ends up winning the main award instead.

Consider giving a moment’s thought to the initial front-runner, “The Brutalist,” which, unless there’s a significant change in circumstances, no longer seems likely to win.

Directing

Candidates: Sean Baker (for his work on Anora), Brady Corbet (for The Brutalist), James Mangold (for A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (for Emilia Pérez), and Coralie Fargeat (for The Substance)

Or, more colloquially:

Finalists: Sean Baker (on his work with Anora), Brady Corbet (for The Brutalist), James Mangold (for A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (for Emilia Pérez), and Coralie Fargeat (for The Substance)

Likely winner: Sean Baker (Anora)

As a passionate gamer, I was thrilled when Brady Corbet took home the Golden Globe for Best Director, but it seems like the tide has turned in favor of Sean Baker for his masterpiece, “Anora”. His recent victory at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards has put him in a strong position to take home the Oscar for Directing. Exciting times ahead!

In the course of the Directors Guild of America (DGA)’s existence, there have been just eight instances where a DGA top award winner didn’t subsequently win an Oscar. The most recent instance occurred when Sam Mendes, who won the DGA award, was not victorious at the Oscars in 2020, with Bong Joon-ho taking home the prize instead.

It’s possible that an upset could still happen since Coralie Fargeat didn’t receive a nomination for the Directors Guild of America’s top award, but it appears quite improbable at this point in time.

Actor in a Leading Role

Candidates: Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist”, Timothée Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown”, Colman Domingo for “Sing Sing”, Ralph Fiennes for “Conclave”, and Sebastian Stan for “The Apprentice

Likely winner: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Throughout much of the award season this year, Adrien Brody seemed to be on a smooth path toward winning an Oscar due to his success at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice Awards, with many of these accolades coming against the same group of contenders.

After a surprising twist, the Screen Actors Guild Awards chose to award Timothée Chalamet as the youngest-ever recipient of the Best Actor title, signifying his inaugural significant victory of the season.

Over the past three decades, the SAG Awards has mirrored the Oscars in the Best Actor category 24 times. This matching record increases Timothée Chalamet’s prospects for winning. Yet, the playing field is less favorable for him in other Oscar categories throughout history.

In other words, no actor has ever been granted an Oscar solely based on winning the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award, and if we look at all four acting categories, only six actors in total have managed to secure an Oscar following just a SAG victory.

It seems quite probable that Adrien Brody will win the Oscar, yet history often gets rewritten, so there’s always a chance for something unexpected.

Actress in a Leading Role

Contenders: Cynthia Erivo [for her role in Wicked], Karla Sofía Gascón [in Emilia Pérez], Mikey Madison [starring in Anora], Demi Moore [as part of The Substance], and Fernanda Torres [in I’m Still Here]

Likely winner: Demi Moore (The Substance)

In the lead actress category, it’s still a tight competition, but Demi Moore is currently favored to take home her first-ever Oscar. (This sentence maintains the original meaning and tone while using more everyday language.)

Moore triumphed at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice awards previously. This weekend, she added a SAG award to her collection as well. Interestingly, in its 30-year existence, the SAG Awards has corresponded with the Oscars on 21 occasions. However, only seven actors have failed to secure an Oscar following victories at the Globes and SAGs.

While it might seem unlikely, the outcome isn’t set in stone since Mikey Madison unexpectedly won at the BAFTAs. Moreover, she managed to outshine Moore at the Independent Spirit Awards, indicating that she could potentially take home the Oscar as well.

A surprising twist this award season is the contender, Fernanda Torres, who hasn’t been matched against Moore and Madison yet. While Moore and Madison triumphed in the Musical or Comedy category at the Golden Globes, Torres took home the prize in the Drama category.

It seems quite probable that Moore is still the front-runner for taking home the Oscar this year, but the competition in this category has been thrilling as there doesn’t appear to be a clear frontrunner.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Contenders: Yura Borisov (alias Anora), Kieran Culkin (from the film “A Real Pain”), Edward Norton (starring in “A Complete Unknown”), Guy Pearce (featured in “The Brutalist”), Jeremy Strong (in “The Apprentice”)

Likely winner: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Monica Barbaro [in A Complete Unknown], Ariana Grande [for Wicked], Felicity Jones [in The Brutalist], Isabella Rossellini [in Conclave], and Zoe Saldaña [in Emilia Pérez]

Or, more casually:
The nominees are Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Likely winner: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

In the Supporting Acting categories, things are quite distinct, hence we’ve grouped them as a pair for better understanding.

As a gaming enthusiast, I’ve been absolutely thrilled watching Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña dominate the awards circuit this season. Their victories at the SAG Awards felt like the cherry on top, making it seem almost inevitable that they’ll take home their Oscars too.

The main concern for Saldaña right now is if the recent controversy surrounding her co-star Emilia Pérez and Karla Sofía Gascón might affect her opportunities.

At other award ceremonies, voting typically begins prior to any controversy arising. However, for the Oscars, it appears that voting commences following the onset of criticism or backlash.

The 97th Academy Awards are scheduled for this coming Sunday, March 2nd, in the United States. You can watch it live on ITV in the UK.

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2025-02-24 15:51

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