Valve breaks the skins market with trade-up contracts for CS2 knives

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A minor change to the game unexpectedly caused a major problem for Counter-Strike, leading to a two billion dollar loss in value within ten hours.

The ability to trade Counter-Strike items for real money is a major reason why the game is so popular and generates so much revenue, including large esports prizes. A recent update from Valve, released on October 23, 2025, is changing how this works and could significantly impact the market. Here’s a breakdown of the changes.

CS2 knives from trade-up contracts

This Counter-Strike 2 update includes a subtle change to how trade-up contracts work, as noted in the official patch notes.

  • It is now possible to exchange five Covert weapon skins to one knife. For StatTrak Covert skins, you receive a StatTrak knife. Without this feature, you get a normal knife or gloves.

Knives and gloves come from the collection of the original skins.

FAQs

What is a trade-up contract?

In Counter-Strike 2, you can trade five skins to potentially receive a single, more valuable item. This process is known as a trade-up contract.

What are Covert skins?

Covert skins are the rarest weapon skins in CS2. While getting one from a case is very unlikely, some Covert skins are easier to find than others.

Covert skins are quite rare. Only two were included in the new Genesis Collection.

Why are CS2 knives iconic in the community?

It’s very rare to get a knife in CS2 – the chances are only about 0.26%. This extreme rarity is what makes knives the most sought-after items in the game.

Beyond their practical use, many players collect knives based on how they look. Popular choices include the Butterfly Knife, known for its cool opening animation, and Fade knives with rare color patterns like Ruby and Sapphire. Seeing professional Counter-Strike 2 players use these knives during major tournaments like EPL Season 22 also increases their desirability.

What actually changes with this update

The consequences of this step by Valve are easy to foresee.

  • CS2 knives become much more accessible, as people can trade their Covert skins and fill the market with new offers.
  • The price of existing items drops substantially. Even if Covert skins are not cheap, they are totally not that unique as knives, or rather as knives were before this CS2 update.

The impact was nearly instant. CS2’s market value quickly hit a peak of $6 billion, but then dropped about 30% over the course of ten hours.

Valve breaks the contract

Allowing CS2 knives in trade-up contracts creates a much larger issue: it erodes player trust.

  • Knives were the best items for investment. They cost thousands of dollars, and people purchased them for long-term savings and revenue. 

This plan won’t succeed if Valve decides to alter how skins are created and traded. They’ve already introduced knives through trade-up contracts, so what’s stopping them from changing how rare items are obtained and flooding the market with things that used to be hard to find?

Valve and the skin trading community have an unwritten agreement: maintain the current levels of rarity. If knife values drop significantly, it could discourage large investments in the market. The big question is, could the process for creating the highly sought-after ‘Blue Gem’ AK-47 | Case Hardened be updated to increase its chances of appearing?

Signature uniqueness

Many players have significant amounts of money tied up in items within Counter-Strike 2. This trend isn’t expected to disappear anytime soon, but major spending will probably concentrate on the rarest and most distinctive skins.

  • Tournament Souvenir drops with event-specific stickers.
  • Rare Phase for Fade and other unusual skin and knife patterns.

This change could impact major esports platforms and the sponsorship deals they have with teams and tournament organizers.

The exciting games will continue, and the esports scene’s overall health probably won’t be affected. But Valve’s habit of announcing changes unexpectedly does create some anxiety for those involved.

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2025-10-23 19:27