UFC Vegas 96 predictions & odds

As a seasoned MMA enthusiast with years of following this sport and analyzing its combatants, I can confidently say that Frey vs Loder is a fight that favors Frey by TKO. Loder’s weakness lies in his feet, and Frey has shown an impressive ability to finish fights on the ground.

On August 24th, another fight will take place at UFC APEX. The main event will feature Jared Cannonier, ranked No. 5, and Caio Borralho, ranked No. 12, both competing in the middleweight division. Cannonier, a seasoned fighter, aims to recover from his recent knockout defeat against Nassourdine Imavov, while Borralho, an up-and-coming talent, hopes to break into the top five following his impressive KO victory over Paul Craig. This main event comes at an opportune moment after the latest developments in the middleweight championship scene. With Dricus du Plessis now the champion and open to challenges, a strong performance from either fighter could position them for a title contention discussion.

The co-main event will be a top 10 women’s strawweight matchup between No. 9 ranked Angela Hill and No. 11 ranked Tabatha Ricci. Hill is a veteran of the strawweight division, as she has competed with many big names in that division. At 39 years old, she has looked impressive recently and is looking to work her way up to the title picture. Ricci is a young prospect who can make almost any fight competitive, whether she wins or loses. Another anticipated matchup of the night is an undefeated, rising welterweight named Michael Morales getting the biggest test of his career so far against No. 12 ranked Neil Magny, a well-known gatekeeper.

As a longtime fan of mixed martial arts, I eagerly anticipate the upcoming fight card streaming on ESPN and ESPN+. Having attended numerous live events and closely following the sport for years, I have grown accustomed to the adrenaline rush that accompanies the prelims starting at 7 PM ET. The energy in the arena is electric, and I can’t help but feel a sense of excitement as the main card begins at 10 PM ET.

Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall

In a surprising turn of events, Dennis Buzukja was initially scheduled to compete against Danny Silva in a featherweight match. However, Silva withdrew from the competition without disclosing his reason, and Francis Marshall stepped up as a last-minute replacement. This upcoming contest between the two featherweights will take place at lightweight instead. Originally, Buzukja was not chosen because Silva had an advantage in wrestling and technical striking. Now, however, Buzukja is seen as the preferred choice due to Marshall’s lesser skill in technical striking compared to Silva and his perceived lower level of wrestling proficiency. Key factors contributing to this shift include Marshall having suffered a knockout loss a year ago and not having had enough time for full training camp preparation for this fight.

Prediction: Dennis Buzukja by TKO

Edmen Shahbazyan (-320) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+235)

This is a matchup with high stakes, as the winner will be on their first win streak in a couple of years. Both have suffered losing streaks but for different reasons. Edmen Shahbazyan was a hot prospect as a talented, young kid who the UFC saw had great potential. He was 11-0 to start his MMA career, as most of his wins were by first-round knockout. Unfortunately, Shahbazyan was pushed to the top too soon as he suffered brutal losses to many top fighters including Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, Imavov, and Anthony Hernandez. After his first three-fight losing streak, Shahbazyan bounced back by knocking out Dalcha Lungiambula, leading to his loss to Hernandez and a knockout victory over AJ Dobson.

Contrastingly, Meerschaert has been fighting in MMA for an impressive 17 years and is now on the older side at 36. His recent defeats have been against Krzysztof Jotko, Joe Pyfer, and Andre Petroski. Following his loss to Jotko in April 2022, Meerschaert secured a submission victory over Bruno Silva before suffering a two-match losing streak at the hands of those other fighters. However, he managed to bounce back with a submission win against Bryan Barberena in March 2024. Notably, Meerschaert’s recent losses were against less established opponents, while Shahbazyan has faced some of the top contenders.

Shahbazyan excels in his striking abilities, boasting strong kicks and powerful knockouts. On the other hand, Meerschaert’s striking is decent, but his wrestling prowess takes center stage. Though wrestling is Shahbazyan’s less polished area, I believe he has a greater chance of emerging victorious in this fight. Being only 26 years old and honing his skills at Xtreme Couture, Shahbazyan still has plenty of room to grow. As he fends off Meerschaert’s takedown attempts, his swift striking technique could make Meerschaert uneasy while searching for another knockout.

Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan by TKO(-340)

Michael Morales (-1000) vs. Neil Magny (+560)

Morales is an unbeaten up-and-coming fighter with immense promise, having a background in wrestling and judo but primarily focusing on striking. He has secured 11 of his 16 victories via knockout. In the UFC, he has defeated Trevin Giles, Adam Fugitt, Max Griffin, and Jake Matthews in four bouts. Magny’s fighting style predominantly involves long-range striking and close-quarter clinch wrestling. With a career spanning 14 years, he has faced notable opponents like Johnny Hendricks, Rafael dos Anjos, Robbie Lawler, and Shavkat Rakhmonov in the octagon. However, as he grows older, his career has become somewhat unpredictable, with wins followed by losses.

Magny might not boast the highest level of talent, but he’s never shy from a fight until the very end. He was on the brink of defeat against Daniel Rodriguez and Mike Malott, only to secure a finish in the final minute. While those victories were commendable, Magny is unlikely to replicate that success against Morales. Unlike his previous opponents, Morales possesses strong wrestling abilities and has demonstrated endurance for the full three rounds. It’s likely that Morales will be one of the rare individuals who can bring Magny’s fight to an end.

Prediction: Michael Morales by TKO(-750)

Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos

In a nutshell, both fighters seem to share similar offensive strategies, often moving forward. Their wrestling abilities appear balanced. However, Kaan Ofli seems to have an edge in terms of durability and has yet to be finished. If both land heavy blows, Ofli appears more likely to benefit. Mairon Santos tends to protect himself when overwhelmed, which could play into Ofli’s pressure tactics. Overall, Ofli appears to pose a threat throughout the match if he avoids early knockout.

Prediction: Ofli by TKO

Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin Frey

Ryan Loder excels in wrestling but struggles with striking and completing fights. Robert Valentin Frey, on the other hand, is versatile and has a high probability of ending fights by knockout or submission. Given his diverse skills and finishing abilities, Frey appears to be the superior choice. Frey might seize an opportunity for a submission if Loder makes a poor takedown, or he could KO Loder on the feet after thwarting a takedown. A knockout seems more probable for Frey’s victory, as it appears to be Loder’s weakest area of expertise.

Prediction: Frey by TKO

Angela Hill (-118) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-108)

In her recent matches, Hill has demonstrated an impressive ability to deliver powerful strikes, maintain a consistent range, and boosted her defensive wrestling techniques. Notably, she secured her first career submission against Luana Pinheiro in their last fight, which was particularly impressive given that Pinheiro had never been submitted before. As Hill matures and gains more experience with elite strawweights, her skills continue to shine brightly. Hill has previously faced off against notable opponents such as Lupita Godinez, Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Jessica Andrade, and Rose Namajunas within the Octagon.

Ricci is a forward-pushing striker who often engages aggressively. She doesn’t always win fights based on strikes and wrestling moves, but her speed can make matches more competitive than expected. For instance, she lost a split decision to Godinez that perhaps should have been unanimous, while winning against Tecia Pennington in a split decision when some might argue she shouldn’t have. Ricci holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, making her a potential threat for submission victories as she has won three of her ten wins through armbar submissions.

In this matchup, Hill appears to have an edge due to her superior striking skills, which could cause problems for Ricci’s aggressive approach. Her defensive wrestling and submission defense are also expected to stand strong against Ricci, who has shown inconsistency in takedown attempts. Notably, Ricci failed in all six of her takedown attempts against Godinez and managed only one out of ten against Pennington. Given Hill’s overall superiority, it seems likely that she will make this fight appear less competitive compared to Ricci’s past battles. A unanimous decision victory by Hill would be the most probable outcome.

Prediction: Hill by decision (-118)

Caio Borralho (-245) vs. Jared Cannonier (+186)

At the Fighting Nerds gym, Borralho exhibits versatility, demonstrating proficiency in both striking and wrestling simultaneously. His fighting style resembles karate, as he agilely moves around while strategically selecting his strikes. In April 2023, he absorbed powerful punches from Michał Oleksiejczuk, a renowned heavy hitter, showcasing a sturdy chin. Despite not yet competing in championship rounds, Borralho’s cardio has suggested the endurance to secure three-round decisions in some of his previous fights. In addition to Oleksiejczuk, Borralho boasts impressive victories against Craig, Abus Magomedov, and Makhmud Muradov.

Cannonier is a pressure-heavy striker who likes to overwhelm his opponents with his power. Though he gets taken down often, holding him down is a hard task. He has a weak chin, as he was rocked by Marvin Vettori, who is not a power puncher and was stopped recently by Imavov. Cannonier’s cardio is solid, but, it looked decreased when he recently fought Imavov, whose cardio looked better as the fight went longer. After a dominant performance over Vettori in June 2023, Cannonier had a year-long layoff due to an MCL tear. The ring rust likely played a role in Cannonier not looking as dominant against Imavov.

In a nutshell, Borralho appears to be the more favorable choice because he’s younger and on a 15-fight winning streak. Cannonier, who is 40, is coming back quickly after a stoppage loss, which might work in Borralho’s advantage. Initially, Cannonier could have some success with his pressure and may land impactful punches. However, Borralho is expected to endure these blows, maintain his composure, and gradually take control as the fight progresses. This time around, Cannonier might experience another stoppage loss, but it won’t be as early as before. Borralho is poised to move into the top five rankings after this bout.

Prediction: Borralho by TKO(+430)

2024-08-21 20:44