UFC 306 predictions & odds

As a seasoned mixed martial arts enthusiast with years of following the sport under my belt, I find myself thoroughly intrigued by the upcoming fights. First off, let me tell you about Diego Lopes versus Ortega at UFC 306. Both are powerful brawlers, but Lopes seems to have an edge due to his youth and Ortega’s long career taking a toll on his durability. However, Ortega has never been fully knocked out in his career, so a power puncher like Lopes could change that. I’m putting my money on Lopes by TKO.

The highly anticipated UFC 306 takes place on September 16 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada, and it promises to be a gripping spectacle. The headline bout features bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley squaring off against Merab Dvalishvili, the top contender, in what is shaping up to be an intense showdown between two fighters at the peak of their abilities, each boasting impressive winning streaks. There’s a rich history here, as O’Malley claimed the championship by knocking out Dvalishvili’s long-term friend and teammate, Aljimain Sterling. The rivalry between these two has been simmering for quite some time, with Dvalishvili eager to claim the title and avenge his friend, Sterling. O’Malley, meanwhile, is looking forward to recording another spectacular knockout against a top-tier opponent, further enhancing his fighting record.

In this upcoming co-main event, Alexa Grasso, the current flyweight champion, and Valentina Shevchenko, the top contender and former champion, will create history as they engage in the first UFC women’s trilogy. Grasso secured a surprising victory over Shevchenko via fourth-round submission at UFC 285 in one of the biggest upsets of 2023. Their subsequent fight ended in a debated draw at Noche UFC, sparking calls for a third match from fans and experts alike. Following their season of coaching against each other on The Ultimate Fighter, both fighters are now eager to settle their rivalry and determine who is the superior fighter. Other exciting bouts on the card include Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics, and Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van.

The preliminaries start at 7:30 PM Eastern Time (ET) and can be watched on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The main event, however, will only stream on ESPN+ PPV at 10 PM ET. It’s important to note that the odds for the upcoming fights are provided by FanDuel. Please keep in mind that these odds may change periodically.

Raul Rosas Jr. (-670) vs. Aoriqleng (+430)

Raul Rosas Jr., who’s only 19 years old, is currently the youngest fighter in the UFC. With a record of 9 wins and just 1 loss, he has already made a name for himself. Six of his victories were by submission, and two were due to knockouts. Rosas Jr. is not just a skilled wrestler but also excels in maintaining back control and posing submission threats. His power is impressive too, considering striking isn’t his primary focus. Aoriqleng, on the other hand, is an average fighter with a diverse skill set, likely to serve as a stepping stone for Rosas Jr.’s growing career. It’s anticipated that Rosas Jr. will have few difficulties demonstrating his wrestling expertise and securing a finish in this match.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. by submission

Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van

Originally, the match was planned as a bout between Chairez and Kevin Borjas, but Borjas withdrew due to an unspecified issue. In just two weeks, Van has stepped up to replace him, returning after two months following a knockout defeat. Although Chairez is not known for his powerful punches, he rarely knocks out opponents and mainly relies on grappling. Given Van’s solid defensive grappling abilities, it seems likely that he can withstand Chairez’s grappling attempts and take control of the striking exchanges. This matchup appears advantageous for Van as he looks to recover from a significant loss.

Prediction: Joshua Van by TKO

Yazmin Jauregui (-520) vs. Ketlen Souza (+350)

This is a battle between two up-and-coming strikers in the women’s strawweight division. Yazmin Jauregui is a measured, calculated striker, while Ketlen Souza loves throwing many heavy strikes to attempt knockouts. Though Souza throws heavy attacks, she has barely been able to achieve a finish recently. Her last finish was a TKO win outside the UFC in May 2021. Jauregui seems like the better striker who can take advantage of holes of throwing heavy attacks to outstrike her opponent. She can win this fight comfortably on the feet if focused well.

Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui by decision

Manuel Torres (-128) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+100)

This is an underrated fight at UFC 306 as both fighters have great finishing ability, leading to a fireworks matchup. Manuel Torres and Ignacio Bahomdes seem pretty even on the feet, but, wrestling is where Torres has an advantage. Bahomdes’ fight with Ludoveit Klein exposed holes in his grappling game, where he was taken down three times and controlled for most of the fight. If Torres had the positions Klein had on Bahomdes, he could have a submission. Bahomdes also lost a close fight to John Mahdessi, a low-level veteran no longer with the UFC. Torres just seems he can thrive better in a chaotic battle, while taking advantage better if Bahamondes is the one to make a mistake.

Prediction: Manuel Torres by submission

Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Norma Dumont (-106)

In this upcoming fight, the No.5 ranked Irene Aldana goes head-to-head with No.9 Norma Durmont, a significant clash within the women’s bantamweight division. The main preliminary bout of the evening sees these two contenders square off. Durmont has been on a four-fight winning streak, securing decision victories through numerous takedowns. However, her opponents have included Danyelle Wolf, a novice with just one MMA win, and Germaine de Randamie, who is 40 years old and considered past her prime. While Aldana may struggle with wrestling, her defensive wrestling skills aren’t poor; she can often recover well from being taken down. This fight will undoubtedly highlight the disparity between the caliber of opponents they have faced previously.

Prediction: Irene Aldana by TKO

Ronaldo Rodríguez (-132) vs. Ode’ Osbourne (+104)

This should be an easy matchup to pick. Ronaldo Rodríguez is better everywhere than Ode’ Osbourne as he can strike better, wrestle effectively, and is pretty durable. Rodríguez can also be chaotic in his fight style while occasionally being able to switch stances. He is on a six-fight winning streak, while Osbourne is on a two-fight losing streak while having an inconsistent career. Rodríguez had a skillful submission victory in his UFC debut early this year, and, he is skilled enough to continue his hype at the Sphere.

Prediction: Ronaldo Rodríguez by submission

Daniel Zellhuber (-250) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+190)

An exciting clash is set between two rising stars in the lightweight division. Zellhuber is favored due to his 8-inch reach advantage, which could significantly impact the fight. However, Ribovics has the potential to cause an upset. He boasts a solid high guard, which might help him evade Zellhuber’s long punches. Ribovics packs a punch, particularly hooks, and sometimes turns fights dirty. He also occasionally executes takedowns. This fight could very well be the night’s biggest surprise.

Prediction: Esteban Ribovis by decision

Diego Lopes (-180) vs. Brian Ortega (+140)

Tonight’s fight between No. 3 ranked Ortega and No. 12 ranked Lopes in the featherweight division is highly anticipated. Originally slated as the co-main event for UFC 303 during International Fight Week, this bout was a last-minute replacement due to the cancellation of Conor McGregor’s main event. Unfortunately, Ortega had to withdraw at the last minute due to illness, and No. 14 ranked Dan Ige took his place in a catchweight fight. In the end, Lopes emerged victorious after a tough unanimous decision, earning cheers from fans for both fighters who stepped up on short notice. Despite the initial rebooking date, this match remains a closely contested one, with both competitors having the potential to secure a win.

Both fighters are tough and skilled in hand-to-hand combat with impressive BJJ abilities. Lopes is more favored due to him being younger and Ortega having a lengthy career that has taken its toll on his resilience. Ortega has only been defeated twice, by Max Holloway (due to a swollen eye in the fourth round) and Yair Rodriguez (due to a dislocated shoulder in the first round during a submission attempt). He’s never been fully knocked out before, but that might change at UFC 306. In his recent rematch with Rodriguez, Ortega was dropped for the first time in eight years. While Rodriguez isn’t a heavy hitter, a strong puncher like Lopes could exploit Ortega’s potentially weakening chin to secure the win.

Prediction: Diego Lopes by TKO

Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+110)

This fight is interesting because Shevchenko was getting the better of Grasso in the first two fights until the final results. She was up two rounds to one until Grasso’s submission and should have won the rematch if it were not for one bad judge. Shevchenko can finally beat Grasso if she takes better advantage of her takedowns, such as finding more submission attempts and landing better ground strikes. She can also win by continuing her striking success from the rematch, such as establishing her jab and landing hooks around Grasso’s boxing defense. Though Shevchenko can win, Grasso just seems to have more opportunity for improvement to finally end the rivalry.

Grasso’s defensive wrestling showed significant progress during the rematch, yet it could have benefited from further enhancement. If she continues to improve, Grasso will be able to thwart many of Shevchenko’s takedown attempts, a crucial advantage in their fighting style. Moreover, Grasso became the first UFC fighter to both knockdown and submit Shevchenko, an impressive feat. In terms of striking, there is still room for Grasso to develop her skills to deliver the decisive knockout blows that could significantly impact this fight. Notably, Shevchenko is now 36 years old, which may begin to affect her performance at the championship level.

Prediction: Alexa Grasso by TKO

Sean O’Malley (-130) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+102)

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the year. Two fighters, on winning streaks, which possess obvious ways to win. O’Malley can defend the takedowns and knockout Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili can close the distance and impose his high-paced, overwhelming pressure to drown O’Malley to a unanimous decision. Though both have equal chances to win, O’Malley seems more likely to take the victory as he defends his title. His footwork, reach, and distance management all can be tools useful for nullifying Dvalishvili’s pressure game.

Dvalishvili has never been knocked out before, but, he has been rocked before badly. If O’Malley was in the positions of Henry Cejudo and Marlon Morales rocking Dvalishvili, it would be a worse position as Dvalishvili would have had his first stoppage loss. In both positions, Dvalishvili has shown susceptibility to a powerful, overhand left. With recent news showing Dvalishvili suffering a cut in camp and allegedly having a staph infection, O’Malley may be well-positioned for another highlight reel finish. This is the matchup tailor-made for O’Malley to possibly perform similarly to McGregor’s performance against Eddie Alvarez.

Prediction: Sean O’Malley by TKO

2024-09-11 22:13