UFC 305 predictions & odds

As a seasoned combat sports enthusiast who has spent countless hours watching and analyzing fights from every corner of the globe, I can confidently say that this upcoming card is shaping up to be one for the ages.

The highly-anticipated UFC 305 fight night is fast approaching on August 17, with events officially underway. The UFC will make its comeback to Perth, Australia, where it will stage this exciting fight card at the RAC Arena. The main event promises a heated title battle between Dricus Du Plessis, the current middleweight champion, and Israel Adesanya, the former middleweight champion ranked No. 2.

In the secondary headline bout, an exciting flyweight matchup is set between No. 4 ranked Kai Kara-France and No. 7 ranked Steve Erceg. Kara-France aims to recover from two consecutive defeats in high-profile fights. His first loss was against Brandon Moreno, in a rematch for the interim flyweight title, which ended via third-round stoppage, despite some believing he was ahead on points. Then, in his main event debut, Kara-France lost to Amir Albazi by split decision, with many spectators feeling he deserved the win. Kara-France has been sidelined for a year due to a concussion injury, while Erceg seeks redemption following a sudden title fight against champion Alexandre Pantoja, in which they engaged in a fierce competition.

6:30 PM ET marks the start of the early prelims, which can be streamed on ESPN+. At 8 PM ET, both the early and regular prelims will air simultaneously on ESPN and ESPN+. The main card, available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view, starts at 10 PM ET. Prior to these anticipated fights, we’ll be sharing our predictions. The odds for UFC 305, provided by FanDuel Sportsbook, are subject to change.

Junior Tafa(-130) vs. Valter Walker(+102)

As a gaming enthusiast following UFC 305, I’m pumped for the heavyweight showdown between Junior Tafa and Valter Walker. You see, Junior is Justin Tafa’s brother, while Valter is Johnny Walker’s. This matchup is a striker versus grappler affair: Junior thrives on knockouts, while Valter enjoys taking down opponents to ground-and-pound them. However, Junior’s Achilles heel lies in wrestling, whereas Valter has multiple weaknesses – his striking, defense, and cardio are all questionable. Given these vulnerabilities, it seems like Junior has a significant edge with his strong striking skills.

Prediction: Junior Tafa by KO/TKO(-130)

Carlos Prates(-320) vs. Li Jingliang(+235)

The opening fight of the PPV main card will be a welterweight clash between Carlos Prates and Li Jingliang in a young prospect vs veteran matchup. Prates is currently on an 11-fight winning streak, with mostly finishes. 14 of his 19 career wins come by knockout, while 3 are by submission. Prates has been competing since 2012 and has been finished a few times since 2017 and before.14 of Jingliang’s wins are by finish, including 10 knockouts and four submissions. Jingliang has only been finished by submission two times in his career, as he has never been knocked out due to his durable chin.

Prates, known for his striking skills, stands out with an innovative approach that includes kicks, knees, and powerful, extended punches. His versatility could give him the edge in this fight, considering Jingliang’s wrestling is not as strong. However, despite the predicted outcome, Jingliang’s tenacity might make a clean knockout unlikely. At 36 years old, Jingliang has taken a break of almost two years and was scheduled to fight Michael Chiesa at UFC 287 in April 2023 but had to withdraw due to a back injury. Despite the anticipated defeat, his resilience is expected to be a challenge to overcome.

Prediction: Carlos Prates by decision(+310)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik(-245) vs. Tai Tuivasa(+186)

This should be a fun fight as long as it lasts, as hard-hitting heavyweights will look to bang it out. No. 12 ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik will look to ascend into the top 10 rankings, while No. 10 ranked Tai Tuivasa will look to bounce back from a major losing streak. Both heavyweights are alike, as 13 of their 14 career wins were won by knockout, while they each only possess one decision victory. Tuivasa has been knocked out by the likes of Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane while Rozenstruik has knockout losses to Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov. Tuivasa has been submitted by fighters such as Volkov and Marcin Tybura while Rozenstruik has only been submitted by Jailton Almeida, who is probably the best grappler at heavyweight right now.

These two are distinct types of boxers – Tuivasa is a fighter who mainly uses his powerful punches and leg kicks, while Rozenstruik is more strategic, choosing his moments carefully. However, it seems Tuivasa’s motivation to fight has waned after facing tough competition in the heavyweight division. Given Rozenstruik’s superior striking skills and considering the damage Tuivasa has sustained, Rozenstruik is likely to emerge victorious, possibly with a knockout.

Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO(-135)

Mateusz Gamrot(-340) vs. Dan Hooker(+250)

In the lightweight division, a significant clash is expected between No. 5 ranked Mateusz Gamrot and No. 11 ranked Dan Hooker. This battle has the potential to be Fight of the Night and significantly contributed to the success of UFC 305. Hooker was eager to take on any opponent at UFC 305, as his teammate, Adesanya, publicly urged UFC officials for Hooker to secure a fight. With this in mind, the card could have more star power. Fortunately, Hooker’s wish came true with a high-ranked opponent. On paper, Gamrot appears to have an edge in wrestling, but many might underestimate the closeness of this contest.

In this upcoming encounter, we have another match-up of a grappler versus a striker. Gamrot excels at applying high-intensity wrestling tactics against all opponents, while Hooker prefers to wear down fighters and make fights messy. Both may lack in striking defense, but Gamrot recovers well, whereas Hooker has better overall durability. Interestingly, Gamrot often gets knocked down or stunned in most bouts, while it’s challenging to knock out or knock down Hooker unless the opponent is exceptionally powerful like Michael Chandler. Despite being an underdog, Hooker has a genuine chance of winning this bout. He boasts strong offensive knees that can inflict substantial damage on Gamrot and his takedown defense has significantly improved over time. While Jason Knight was the last fighter to consistently take down Hooker back in November 2016 with four successful takedowns, Hooker has only been taken down one or two times on average since then.

As a dedicated fan, I’m confident that if Hooker manages to counter Gamrot’s wrestling techniques, he has the potential to turn the fight dirty by setting his own pace in the stand-up. This could potentially lead to a thrilling stoppage or a well-deserved unanimous decision victory. While Gamrot is yet to experience a knockout in his career, Hooker demonstrated incredible resilience when he overcame a head kick and a broken arm to emerge victorious against Jalin Turner at UFC 290 in July 2023. His recent layoff due to a broken arm does raise some concerns, but the potential for an upset makes this a risky yet rewarding pick.

Prediction: Dan Hooker by decision(+500)

Steve Erceg(-180) vs. Kai Kara-France(+140)

In this upcoming co-main event, Flyweights are known for being thrilling and this match between Erceg and Kara-France should be no exception. Although Erceg might not have a high ranking, he surpasses Kara-France in all aspects of the fight. He is more resilient, has a greater flair in striking techniques, and his wrestling skills are far superior to those of Kara-France. Erceg has the ability to knock out or submit Kara-France if he chooses to do so. While Kara-France may excel in delivering powerful overhands, Erceg does not rely on wrestling offensively. This fight could very well rival Gamrot vs Hooker for the title of Fight of the Night.

Prediction: Steve Erceg by decision(+130)

Israel Adesanya(-128) vs. Dricus du Plessis(+100)

Finally, this is one of the year’s best main events, in terms of skill and beef. This is a close fight as both have solid paths to victory. Adesanya’s primary weaknesses are wrestling and getting pressured by someone defensibly responsible. Du Plessis’ primary weakness is mostly just being too reckless at times, while his chin is open to counterpunches. The strengths of Adesanya include counter punching, various kicks, and establishing range. Du Plessis, on the other hand, has strong wrestling, powerful blitz attacks, pace, and he even has good counter punching himself.

Both fighters are durable while possessing solid enough power to shut anybody’s lights off. Du Plessis seems like a better pick because he surprises people when being an underdog against top fighters and Adesanya’s fight style possibly being tailor-made for him. Adesanya is content fighting off the back foot most of the time, while du Plessis thrives when he pressures his opponents. Du Plessis is Adesanya’s first opponent with a real submission threat, and Adesanya has made mistakes in the past, giving his back to low-level grapplers such as Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori. If du Plessis had any of the grappling positions Whittaker or Vettori had on Adesanya, he could have found a submission or landed vicious ground strikes. Though wrestling is du Plessis’s best bet to win, he can win on the feet too.

If du Plessis intends to outpoint Adesanya in a striking contest, he’ll need to neutralize one of Adesanya’s key strengths – his powerful calf kicks. Opponents who have defeated du Plessis before have exploited this aspect. However, du Plessis’ team is known for their strategic planning, so they may devise a plan to counter this. If du Plessis can pressure Adesanya against the cage while avoiding those calf kicks, he can create opportunities for rapid attacks and land precise, hard-hitting punches that could lead to a knockout. Du Plessis’ robust defensive stance, or high guard, will also assist him in slipping and blocking Adesanya’s various attacks. In an innovative move, du Plessis might use his success in stand-up fights to set up successful ground battles, aiming for a finish against Adesanya.

Prediction: Dricus du Plessis by submission(+550)

2024-08-14 22:13