Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes preview and prediction

As a dedicated UFC fan, I’m thrilled about the upcoming UFC 304 event taking place in Manchester, England on July 27. The main attraction is obviously Leon Edwards defending his welterweight title against Belal Muhammad. However, what intrigues me the most is the co-main event – a heavyweight bout where interim champion Tom Aspinall defends his belt against Curtis Blaydes.

At UFC 304 in Manchester, England on July 27, Leon Edwards will defend his welterweight title against Belal Muhammad in the main event. An intriguing co-main event features Tom Aspinall, the interim heavyweight champion, taking on No. 4 ranked Curtis Blaydes. In an unusual turn of events for an interim champ, Aspinall opted to defend his belt instead of waiting for Jon Jones, the undisputed heavyweight champion, who is injured and expected to return by the end of 2024. Jones had expressed interest in a likely retirement fight against Stipe Miocic. Aspinall sought activity and chose this rematch following an underwhelming previous encounter.

I was eagerly anticipating the July 2022 showdown between Aspinall and Blaydes as the headlining event of a London fight night. With an impressive eight-fight winning streak under his belt, Aspinall looked poised for greatness. On the other hand, Blaydes was coming off two strong victories, making this clash a highly anticipated contest to determine which fighter was more deserving of a championship shot.

A prospect like Aspinall brings a diverse skillset to the table, having honed his abilities in boxing, wrestling, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prior to MMA. He’s yet to make it past the second round in his ten-year MMA career. His record includes two losses – both by submission (in 2015 and 2016) and disqualification. However, following these setbacks, he’s shown significant progress. If we exclude an injury loss against Blaydes, Aspinall has been on a successful run of ten fights, each ending with a finish. He’s known for his powerful calf kicks, nimble footwork, precise striking, and robust wrestling. Some of his notable victories have been against Pavlovich, Volkov, Tybura, and Spivac.

The rematch between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes is two years in the making

Blaydes’ background was mainly in wrestling, which proved to be his greatest asset as he began his MMA journey over a decade ago. In contrast to Aspinall, Blaydes has experienced numerous third rounds but only one fifth round. His record shows four losses, all by knockout at the hands of some of the heaviest hitters in the division, such as Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis, and Pavlovich. Blaydes’ career can be unpredictable, with him alternating between wins and losses, particularly when he approaches title eliminators. Blaydes boasts impressive punching power, excellent stamina, accurate takedowns, and brutal ground striking. His most significant victories include those against Almeida, Overeem, dos Santos, and Volkov.

Aspinall’s best path to victory is to take out Blaydes early. He has not seen a third round in his career and for now, it is best if it remains that way, given his well-conditioned opponent. He can take out Blaydes early by taking him down and submitting him, as Blaydes was taken down multiple times by Almeida before finding the knockout. Aspinall can also knock Blaydes out on the feet, as he possesses great power in the ranks of the heavyweights who knocked out Blaydes in the past. He moves like a middleweight with his footwork, and he must use that to make it hard for Blaydes to shoot takedowns on him. If Blaydes does take him down, Aspinall must use his BJJ to get back up to his feet as soon as he can to avoid dangerous ground strikes.

If Blaydes intends to defeat Aspinall, he must guide him into deeper waters, a territory unfamiliar to Aspinall yet favorable to Blaydes’ experience. This can be accomplished by enduring the initial onslaught in the first two rounds, requiring Blaydes to remain cautious on his feet and ward off any potential takedowns. If he exhibits intelligence and precision, Blaydes can outmaneuver Aspinall during striking exchanges, as the latter occasionally leaves his chin exposed. However, if the fight goes to the ground, which is Blaydes’ best chance to secure a victory, he must contend with Aspinall’s proficient BJJ skills. To keep him down, Blaydes must thwart submission attempts and leverage his strength to maintain control while delivering his signature ground elbows.

Despite Blaydes’ ability to cause issues for heavyweight contenders, he consistently comes up short when facing title eliminator opponents. In these bouts, it is the powerful punchers who pose significant challenges for him in ultimately vying for an undisputed championship. Aspinall’s nimble footwork and agile head movement, coupled with a solid chin tested by Pavlovich in their last encounter, will give Blaydes difficulty. Based on their past performances, Aspinall exhibits a superior skill set in every aspect compared to Blaydes.

Prediction: Aspinall via first-round knockout.

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2024-07-26 01:13