Movies

Superman Is Polling High, But How Much Will It Actually Make Opening Weekend?

BBG News

As a diehard fan eagerly awaiting James Gunn’s upcoming “Superman” movie set for release in 2025, the buzz among fans (and some heated debates online) is palpable. However, when it comes to anticipating its box office performance, the reboot of this iconic character might need to prepare for a swift wake-up call, reminiscent of a speeding bullet’s trajectory. Superman is riding high on popularity, but will that translate into substantial earnings during the opening weekend? Let’s explore the possibilities.

Superman’s Initial Box Office Tracking

As reported by Deadline, initial predictions suggest the film will debut with earnings ranging from $125 million to $145 million, based on data from NRG. However, some industry professionals feel that this figure might be more realistically estimated at around $90 million to $125 million. This would still represent a strong performance for most post-pandemic summer releases—but for the premiere of James Gunn’s DCU Chapter One: Gods and Monsters, it could be slightly below the blockbuster success some enthusiasts might have hoped for.

As a movie enthusiast, I must admit that the upcoming DC film has certainly piqued my curiosity with its impressive “unaided awareness.” This industry term refers to the ability to spontaneously name a project when asked about upcoming movies. However, when it comes to the “first choice” ratings, which are crucial indicators of how many people will actually turn up at the box office on opening weekend, this film seems to be lagging behind heavyweights like Thor: Love and Thunder and The Batman. Even Captain America: Brave New World, a film that underperformed with an $88 million launch, had a “first choice” rating that was 71% higher than the current DC movie at the same stage of its release cycle.

The comparison is causing unease among some insiders, particularly considering Superman’s high-profile reputation and historical significance, as well as the star-studded cast headed by David Corenswet, not to mention the direction of renowned filmmaker James Gunn.

Why I’m Not Worried About Supes’ Box Office

To be fair, I don’t believe that Superman‘s “slow” popularity is solely due to superhero burnout (though it might play a part). Instead, it seems more about timing, critical reception, and audience excitement. The Deadline article highlights that much of the movie’s success or failure will depend on word-of-mouth and final promotional pushes. The rapid sell-out of Amazon’s Prime Early Access screenings on July 8 suggests a passionate fanbase eager for the film, but it appears the wider audience is waiting to see if the movie lives up to expectations.

Let’s not overlook the fact that Superman boasts an impressive 90-year legacy in pop culture and a dedicated fanbase who are always eager to show their support. Even those who have been critical of the reboot, such as the Snyderverse followers, might still purchase tickets out of curiosity. In fact, based on what we’ve seen from the trailers and early footage, Superman appears to be quite formidable, potentially surpassing current predictions for its performance.

The positive aspect is that Gunn has a history of surpassing expectations. In fact, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” which can be streamed with a Disney+ subscription, was anticipated to fall short but instead achieved one of Marvel’s best post-Endgame box office retentions. If the initial reviews are favorable and CinemaScore maintains an A grade or higher, “Superman” could potentially break through its $125M estimate and fly even higher.

The Final Verdict

Historically, Superman’s films have shown varying performance at the box office. For instance, “Man of Steel” started with an impressive $116 million and eventually grossed approximately $670 million globally. On the other hand, “Batman v Superman” had a stronger domestic opening weekend of $166 million, which was bolstered by Batman’s popularity, the anticipation for a crossover, and a decade-long buildup. However, this latest standalone movie lacks that support.

For Gunn and Safran’s DC Studios, this initial release serves as a significant test. Both fans and industry experts are paying close attention, not just to box office numbers, but also for indications that the new DC Universe can measure up to Marvel in the post-Endgame, post-multiverse fatigue period.

While Superman may not set new records, it’s crucial that it makes a lasting impact, generating positive sentiment and setting the stage for something grand. A starting box office of over $125 million is commendable, but what truly showcases its power is a robust second weekend, driven by audience affection and favorable critiques. That’s the true mark of a successful superhero!

Until then, all eyes are on July 11. Cape or no cape, this flight path is far from set.

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2025-06-25 18:37

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