The fight for control of Warner Bros. Discovery has become a major power struggle in Hollywood. The New York Post reports that Paramount Skydance thinks it’s now surpassing Netflix in terms of strategic maneuvering.
With connections spanning finance, tech, and entertainment, the group backed by Larry Ellison thinks Netflix’s leading position is weakening due to money problems, worried investors, and potential legal issues. They believe their offer, which is entirely in cash, is becoming more appealing.
Charles Gasparino, writing in his On The Money column for the New York Post, reports that people familiar with the Paramount Skydance deal are increasingly concerned about the limited options available to Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav.
And none of them favor Netflix.
Two Bids — Two Very Different Futures
The disagreement between Paramount and Netflix regarding Warner Bros. revolves around two very different proposals.
Paramount Skydance has offered $30 per share in cash for Warner Bros. Discovery, which would value the company at around $78 billion. Larry Ellison is personally guaranteeing $40 billion of the funding, while Citigroup and Bank of America are providing the rest.
Netflix’s offer appears less appealing and more uncertain: they’re proposing $27.75 per share in cash and stock, with an extra $3 per share potentially coming from the sale of Warner Bros. Discovery’s cable networks, like CNN, TNT, and Discovery.
That additional $3 in potential revenue isn’t certain. It hinges on how well the new cable channel performs in the market, and Paramount Skydance is actively working to ensure its success.
Versant’s Collapse Changed Everything
The cable spinoff math used to support Netflix’s bid just took a major hit.
The New York Post highlights Comcast’s new company, Versant, as a key example of how these spin-offs might perform. Versant, which owns channels like MSNBC, CNBC, and E!, just launched, but its stock price has already dropped almost 30%.
Gerry Cardinale, from RedBird Capital, is warning investors that the new company created from Warner Bros. Discovery’s cable assets could be almost worthless if it performs similarly to Versant, especially considering it will have around $15 billion in debt.
That wipes out the entire financial foundation of Netflix’s $3-per-share sweetener.
Essentially, Netflix wants Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders to bet on a traditional cable market that investors are currently avoiding.
Netflix’s Stock Is Working Against It
Netflix is partially funding this deal with its own stock, but the value of that stock has recently dropped significantly.
I’ve been following Netflix closely, and it’s been a rough time lately. The New York Post reports they’ve lost over $150 billion in value because of the competition with Warner Bros. Discovery. Honestly, a lot of investors, including myself, are worried. Netflix built its success doing one thing – streaming – and now they seem to be trying to become a big studio like the ones they used to compete with. It’s a big shift, and people are understandably nervous.
Ted Sarandos and Reed Hastings are making a bold and potentially risky change at Netflix: shifting from a streamlined streaming service to a company heavily invested in creating its own shows and movies. Investors are reacting negatively to this new direction.
That makes Netflix’s stock-based offer less attractive by the week.
The Ellison Advantage: Power and Politics
Paramount Skydance has a distinct edge over Netflix thanks to the significant political influence and financial power of Larry Ellison.
According to the New York Post, Larry Ellison’s close ties with President Trump could significantly impact how regulators view large mergers, especially a possible combination of Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery. This deal would unite the top streaming service, Netflix, with HBO Max, currently ranked third.
That deal would immediately trigger intense regulatory scrutiny.
By contrast, Paramount Skydance combining with WBD produces a much cleaner antitrust profile.
And Zaslav knows it.
Even Investors Are Starting to Flip
Paramount Skydance’s cash offer hasn’t increased — but momentum is shifting anyway.
Well-known investor Mario Gabelli recently voiced his support for Skydance’s offer, telling Fox Business that having cash on hand is preferable. He stated, “$30 in cash is a better deal.”
I’m definitely sensing a shift in what people want. Right now, solid, reliable cash feels a lot better than hoping for big returns from risky new ventures or the unpredictable stock market, like Netflix. People are prioritizing stability over speculation, and honestly, I get it.
Zaslav skillfully managed the competition to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, significantly increasing its value after turning down a previous offer of $19 per share from Ellison last autumn. However, time is running out, and competing with Netflix is becoming more challenging.
Netflix Is Running Out of Leverage
The Paramount WB Netflix fight is no longer just about price. It’s about risk.
Netflix’s offer relies on:
- A collapsing cable market
- A volatile stock price
- Heavy antitrust exposure
- And a radical shift in business model
Paramount Skydance’s offer, meanwhile, delivers:
- Guaranteed cash
- Bank-backed financing
- Lower regulatory risk
- And Ellison’s personal equity guarantee
Zaslav might be aiming higher, but according to Gasparino, he may have to accept the most secure choice available to him soon.
And right now, that’s not Netflix.
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2026-01-11 17:59