The competition for Best Director at the 2026 Oscars is shaping up to be a battle between Hollywood’s top creative talents. With Sean Baker’s recent win for Anora still fresh in everyone’s minds, it’s a pleasure to share ScreenRant‘s early look at the potential nominees and how the race is developing.
The top movies released so far in 2025 highlight the incredible skill of today’s film directors. We’ve already seen fantastic new work from directors like Bong Joon-ho, Ryan Coogler, Paul Greengrass, Mike Flanagan, Paul Thomas Anderson, Steven Soderbergh, Danny Boyle, and Spike Lee.
While not everyone nominated has a strong chance of winning at the 98th Academy Awards, some nominees and their filmmaking teams will be victorious. Several past Best Director winners are up for the award again, including two of the three women who have previously won the Oscar for Best Director.
The Oscar nominations on January 22, 2026, are shaping up to be very competitive. This is my current prediction, but I’ll be updating it regularly as the awards season progresses, so be sure to check back for the latest insights.
Commentary and predictions updated on October 29
The Best Director Nomination Frontrunners
Several directors are looking like strong contenders for the Best Director Oscar. Considering a film’s success in theaters and at festivals, as well as past Oscar wins, here are my predictions for the 2026 nominations.
| Rank | Director | Movie |
|---|---|---|
| 1) | Paul Thomas Anderson | One Battle After Another |
| 2) | Chloé Zhao | Hamnet |
| 3) | Ryan Coogler | Sinners |
| 4) | Josh Safdie | Marty Supreme |
| 5) | Jafar Panahi | It Was Just An Accident |
Most experts now believe Paul Thomas Anderson is certain to be nominated for an Oscar for directing his latest film, One Battle After Another. The movie has received incredibly positive reviews, largely thanks to Anderson’s skillful direction and how well he brought his creative ideas to the screen.
Paul Thomas Anderson has a strong relationship with the Academy, and he’s been nominated for Best Director three times, including for his recent films Phantom Thread and Licorice Pizza. However, he hasn’t won an Oscar yet, and that lack of success could be a weakness in this year’s competition, potentially making him more susceptible to an upset than people realize.
Chloé Zhao has already earned critical acclaim and an Oscar for Best Director, winning for her film Nomadland, which also took home the Best Picture award. This established success makes her a strong contender and almost guarantees she’ll receive at least a nomination this year.
Early reviews of Hamnet from the Telluride and TIFF film festivals have been overwhelmingly positive, particularly praising the director’s work. For example, Rachel Labonte of ScreenRant called it “pure magic” and gave the film a perfect score. The industry should continue to recognize this accomplishment.
So far, things are looking good for both directors. Zhao and Anderson were both nominated for Best Director at the Gotham Awards, which are known for influencing the Academy Awards. These nominations suggest they won’t be ignored when the Oscar nominations are announced.
This news also highlights Jafar Panahi, the director of It Was Just an Accident, who was also nominated for a Gotham Award. His film has been selected by France to compete for Best International Feature Film. Over the past seven years, the Academy has increasingly included international voters, and this has resulted in a director from a Best International Film nominee being recognized six times.
Asghar Farhadi seems like a likely candidate to win another major award in 2026. His latest film, It Was Just an Accident, received high praise and won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Plus, the film is being distributed by Neon, a studio that has consistently put directors up for Best Director Oscars – and even secured a win recently with Sean Baker.
Ryan Coogler is a strong contender for the Best Director nomination, and could even win. His film, Sinners, is a standout of the year because he successfully delivered his unique and complex vision for a blockbuster – a film that is both thematically rich, expertly crafted, and thoroughly enjoyable – without sacrificing his artistic integrity.
If, as many expect, Ryan Coogler receives a nomination, he could become the first Black director to win the Best Director Oscar. Even being nominated would be a historic achievement, making him only the seventh Black filmmaker ever to receive such recognition, and underscoring the long-standing lack of representation for people of color by the Academy over its nearly century-long existence.
Josh Safdie, one of the directors behind the film Marty Supreme, is a new addition to our list of potential nominees. Although his brother has received more awards attention previously, Marty Supreme was very well-received at the New York Film Festival, giving Josh a boost. The film wasn’t completed early enough to be considered for a Gotham Award nomination, however.
It will be interesting to watch how Josh Safdie’s chances improve as more people see his film. He’s currently A24’s strongest contender for a nomination in the Best Director category. A24 has had a director nominated for the past three years—Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest, and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist.
Directors Still In The Mix
The race for Best Director is still open, with opportunities for both filmmakers whose movies are nominated for Best Picture and those who could earn a nomination based on their directing skills alone. As the awards season continues, several talented directors could still become nominees.
If we only consider my Best Picture predictions, five directors didn’t make the list of nominees. Those directors are Guillermo del Toro (with Frankenstein), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good), James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash), and Clint Bentley (Train Dreams).
| Director | Movie |
|---|---|
| Benny Safdie | The Smashing Machine |
| Clint Bentley | Train Dreams |
| Craig Brewer | Song Sung Blue |
| Guillermo del Toro | Frankenstein |
| James Cameron | Avatar: Fire and Ash |
| Joachim Trier | Sentimental Value |
| Jon M. Chu | Wicked: For Good |
| Josh Safdie | Marty Supreme |
| Kleber Mendonça Filho | The Secret Agent |
| Mary Bronstein | If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You |
| Mona Fastvold | The Testament of Ann Lee |
| Noah Baumbach | Jay Kelly |
| Park Chan-wook | No Other Choice |
| Scott Cooper | Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere |
| Yorgos Lanthimos | Bugonia |
I think Trier, Del Toro, and Chu are the most likely candidates to become serious contenders soon. Trier and Del Toro have wider audiences familiar with their films, but Chu’s work isn’t as widely available yet.
Guillermo del Toro previously won a Best Director Oscar for The Shape of Water, which boosts his chances this year. He’s the only leading nominee who’s won in this category before, and that past success could be a significant factor if voters are undecided.
Regarding past winners, I don’t think Cameron will be nominated this year. While it’s not entirely out of the question, it would require the Academy to really embrace his new film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, much more than they did with Avatar: The Way of Water, where he didn’t even receive a nomination.
Image Credit: Abaca Press/INSTARimages
Chu needs to prove himself further after not being nominated for Wicked. While Baumbach’s films often receive Academy nominations, he hasn’t been recognized for his directing – and that might happen again with Jay Kelly, which is more likely to be nominated for its screenplay.
Yorgos Lanthimos, a filmmaker with a history of Academy recognition, may be losing ground in this year’s awards race. While his latest film, Poor Things, has been generally praised, it needs to gain more support to remain a serious contender for awards moving forward.
Despite strong initial wins – Filho at Cannes and Benny Safdie at Venice – neither filmmaker is currently a frontrunner in the awards race. Both are considered longshots, but Filho has a slightly better chance, as his film, The Secret Agent, seems to be in a stronger position for an Oscar nomination than Safdie’s The Smashing Machine.
Several lesser-known filmmakers could also become strong contenders. Clint Bentley (Train Dreams), Mona Fastvold (The Testament of Ann Lee), Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice), Craig Brewer (Song Sung Blue), and Mary Bronstein (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You) simply need more attention to gain momentum, much like Bronstein received with her nomination from the Gotham Awards.
It’s unlikely that films by Scott Cooper (like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere) and Kathryn Bigelow (A House of Dynamite) will receive nominations. Neither film has generated the buzz needed so far, and without positive attention from critics groups or film festivals soon, their award season runs may be over.
It’s a disappointing turn for Bigelow, who was previously expected to be nominated. However, the film A House of Dynamite received a lot of criticism for its ending after its wider release, and that negative feedback likely ended any chance it had of winning awards.
Predicted Best Director Winner
Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
Predicting the Best Director winner isn’t usually done in isolation. Historically, the Oscars show a strong link between these two awards. In fact, the director who wins has gone on to direct the Best Picture winner 72% of the time – that’s 70 out of the last 97 years. This trend has held true for the last three years as well.
Okay, so I’m currently predicting Hamnet will win Best Picture, and that usually leads me to pick Zhao for Best Director too. But I’m actually going to go a different way. I’ve noticed that it’s become a little less frequent for the Best Picture and Best Director awards to go to the same film, especially recently. So, I’m hedging my bets and not predicting a double win for Hamnet.
Since the year 2000, the Academy Awards has awarded different films Best Picture and Best Director nine times. This is a notable trend, as it’s happened more often in the last 25 years than it did in the 50 years prior.
The Academy Awards has sometimes awarded wins to directors who were long considered deserving, like Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity, and Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. A similar situation is now developing with Paul Thomas Anderson and his film, One Battle After Another.
Despite directing several films nominated for Best Picture and winning other Academy Awards, he hasn’t personally won an Oscar yet, going 0 for 11. He continues to create strong work, suggesting future opportunities for recognition. It’s surprising that the director of acclaimed movies like Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, The Master, and Phantom Thread hasn’t received the Academy’s top honor.
I predict the director, PTA, will receive many awards for his work, especially during award season. His excellent directing combined with a compelling story makes him my top choice for Best Director at the Oscars in 2026. However, it remains to be seen if he can stay ahead of the competition.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
- Oscars 2026 Predictions In All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
- Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
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2025-10-30 01:04