As a movie reviewer for ScreenRant, I’m already gearing up for the 2026 Oscars! Last year, Adrien Brody took home the Best Actor award for The Brutalist, and now all eyes are on who will compete for the prize this time around. I’ll be following the entire race throughout awards season, giving you the inside scoop on who’s looking strong, who’s gaining momentum, and who’s fading from contention. It’s going to be a thrilling ride!
The Best Actor category is shaping up to be highly competitive, with a diverse group of established and rising stars. Actors who have previously won the award, such as Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis, are strong contenders, and Timothée Chalamet is also generating buzz as his career continues to gain momentum.
While past Oscar wins can help, voters also enjoy recognizing new faces and actors they haven’t nominated before. This could open the door for popular stars like Dwayne Johnson, Michael B. Jordan, and Jeremy Allen White to earn nominations. Wagner Moura and Channing Tatum might also be in contention for the same reason.
While the official Best Actor nominations aren’t announced until January 22, 2026, we’re already starting to get a sense of who the frontrunners might be. This is my current prediction, but I’ll be updating it throughout the Oscars season as things develop.
Commentary and predictions updated on October 30
The Best Actor Nomination Frontrunners
The race for the Best Actor Oscar in 2026 is shaping up to be very competitive, with only five spots available for nominations. Many deserving actors will likely be left out. Considering how these performances have been received, any awards they’ve already won, and past Oscar trends, here’s my prediction for who will be nominated.
| Rank | Actor | Movie |
| 1) | Timothée Chalamet | Marty Supreme |
| 2) | Leonardo DiCaprio | One Battle After Another |
| 3) | Wagner Moura | The Secret Agent |
| 4) | Ethan Hawke | Blue Moon |
| 5) | Michael B. Jordan | Sinners |
Okay, so the biggest surprise in this category for me is seeing Dwayne Johnson’s name fading. Before the movie came out, everyone was talking about how he was a sure thing for a nomination thanks to his really brave and different performance in The Smashing Machine. Seriously, early reviews were all about him! It felt like Hollywood was finally going to acknowledge one of its biggest stars for taking a risk on a smaller, indie film, but it just hasn’t happened.
Since the release of The Smashing Machine, things have definitely shifted. While Johnson still has a shot, the film’s mixed reviews and poor box office performance haven’t boosted his prospects. Now, his chances may depend on whether the Academy finds his acting strong enough to recognize, even if they don’t love the movie as a whole.
Because of this, I’ve removed him from my current Best Actor predictions and added Ethan Hawke instead. Hawke’s performance in Richard Linklater’s Blue Moon has received consistent praise, and he’s even been nominated for Outstanding Lead Performance at the Gotham Awards.
Ethan Hawke hasn’t won an Oscar, and he’s never even been nominated for Best Actor. He’s received two previous Oscar nominations, both for Best Supporting Actor – for his roles in Training Day and Boyhood. Academy voters might see his performance in Blue Moon as a well-deserved opportunity to honor him again.
Leonardo DiCaprio is likely to be nominated for an Oscar for the sixth time in his career. It’s been almost ten years since he won his only Academy Award, which was for The Revenant. Now, with his performance in One Battle After Another, he appears to be a strong contender for his seventh nomination.
Honestly, DiCaprio is just phenomenal as Bob – his performance alone deserves all the awards buzz. And let’s be real, the fact that he’s in what’s shaping up to be a major Best Picture contender for the 2026 Oscars will definitely help. It might be exactly what convinces everyone he’s truly deserving of the recognition.
People are wondering if Leonardo DiCaprio might face a situation similar to Killers of the Flower Moon, where a film he stars in receives many award nominations, but he himself is overlooked. His loss at the Gotham Awards has raised this possibility for some, but DiCaprio’s established reputation likely protects him from being completely ignored.
The Academy Awards could honor several standout performances from the film One Battle After Another. Nominating actors like Sean Penn, Chase Infiniti, Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, or Regina Hall might mean Leonardo DiCaprio doesn’t receive a nomination, as voters may want to spread recognition to other films.
Michael B. Jordan is a strong contender for Best Actor and could receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance in Sinners. Not only was it technically remarkable that Ryan Coogler directed him in dual roles as Smoke and Stack, but Jordan also gave deeply emotional and complex performances as both characters.
His talent is clear in his performance, and the film Sinners being considered for many Oscars will likely increase his chances of being nominated. He’s possibly the strongest contender for a nomination among all the actors in the movie. If he receives recognition from critics’ groups and other awards organizations leading up to the Oscars, his nomination will almost certainly happen.
However, it’s still uncertain if he’ll be selected. Jordan needs to make time in his already packed schedule to campaign for the nomination. Even if he does, voters might choose to recognize the entire performing group instead of a single person, especially with the new Best Casting category that honors the casting director, not the actors themselves.
The recent releases of Marty Supreme in December and The Secret Agent in November mark significant opportunities for Timothée Chalamet and Wagner Moura to establish themselves as leading actors, building on the positive attention they’ve already received. These are essentially the first times the general public will be able to see their performances.
While not as widely recognized as some others, Wagner Moura is gaining attention for his performance, which many believe could earn an Oscar nomination. He won Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival for his role in ‘The Secret Agent,’ a prize that doesn’t usually predict Oscar success, but has given him a strong early lead. He’s also received a nomination from the Gotham Awards, adding to his growing momentum.
Timothée Chalamet is a familiar name, and initial reactions confirmed my belief that Marty Supreme would be a strong contender for an Oscar. The first showing at the New York Film Festival not only guaranteed him a nomination, but also made him a frontrunner in the Best Actor category this year.
Actors Still In The Mix
It’s not a given that those five actors will receive Best Actor nominations. Several other performers still have the chance to improve their standing, and that could change the current frontrunners.
Okay, let’s talk about who’s still in the running for awards. A few familiar faces are definitely sticking around, and I’m particularly interested in Jesse Plemons. He was nominated for a Best Supporting Actor award a few years back for The Power of the Dog, and now he’s giving it another shot with his work in Bugonia. It’ll be interesting to see if the Academy takes notice again!
| Actor | Movie |
|---|---|
| Brendan Fraser | Rental Family |
| Channing Tatum | Roofman |
| Cillian Murphy | Steve |
| Colin Farrell | Ballad of a Small Player |
| Daniel Day-Lewis | Anemone |
| Denzel Washington | Highest 2 Lowest |
| Ethan Hawke | Blue Moon |
| George Clooney | Jay Kelly |
| Hugh Jackman | Song Sung Blue |
| Jeremy Allen White | Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere |
| Jesse Plemons | Bugonia |
| Joel Edgerton | Train Dreams |
| Oscar Isaac | Frankenstein |
| Russell Crowe | Nuremberg |
| Will Arnett | Is This Thing On? |
Oscar Isaac (known for Frankenstein), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Channing Tatum (Roofman), and Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?) are all hoping to receive their first Oscar nominations.
I’m really seeing a boost for Isaac lately, and honestly, Frankenstein seems to be helping his awards chances. Edgerton, though, feels a bit more dependent on whether Train Dreams can become a serious contender for Best Picture. As for Arnett, he needs Is This Thing On? to really connect with audiences when it comes out – it could be a game-changer for him.
Among the actors who haven’t been nominated before, Jeremy Allen White seems to have the strongest chance of earning a nomination this year. He embodies the current wave of Hollywood talent and delivers a standout performance in the film. Plus, he’s already gained recognition and awards buzz for his work on the TV show The Bear.
Channing Tatum’s recent award at the Toronto International Film Festival could give him a boost, but he’ll need significant momentum and recognition going forward to become a serious awards contender.
Image via Paramount Pictures
Will voters choose some of the newer contenders, or will they lean towards well-known actors who have previously won or been nominated for an Oscar? George Clooney (known for his role in Jay Kelly), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), Russell Crowe (Nuremberg), Cillian Murphy (Steve), and Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest) are all past winners. Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player) and Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue) have been nominated before and are also strong possibilities.
It seems silly to completely dismiss Daniel Day-Lewis, considering he’s won the most Best Actor awards ever. However, his recent film, Anemone, didn’t make a big splash, and hasn’t sparked much discussion about his performance. Now that he’s returned to acting after retiring, voters might prefer to see his future work before giving him an award for this one.
Predicted Best Actor Winner
The Best Actor category at the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026, is wide open, with strong contenders like Hawke, DiCaprio, Jordan, Chalamet, and Moura. However, my leading pick is increasingly becoming the young star who will soon turn thirty.
Timothée Chalamet is a strong contender for the Best Actor Oscar this year. He ran a very effective campaign after being nominated for A Complete Unknown, and his recent SAG Award win makes me believe he could pull off an upset and become the youngest actor to ever win the award.
While he hasn’t received the accolades he deserves yet, Timothée Chalamet has a strong opportunity with his new film, Marty Supreme. The trailer suggests it’s a really exciting sports drama, and Chalamet’s acting is expected to be a key reason for its success. A24 seems confident in the film, releasing it in late December, which could give Chalamet’s performance a boost during awards season.
He’s quickly become a standout figure, eclipsing his rivals and gaining recognition as a promising talent with a smart career strategy. Many believe now is the time for Hollywood to recognize him as the future of the industry, setting him up for long-term success and the iconic status he’s aiming for.
A24 has a strong track record, having won Best Actor twice in the last three years, and Timothée Chalamet could make it three wins in four years after the 2026 Oscars. However, the awards season is far from over, so it’s still uncertain if he’ll remain a frontrunner as the season progresses.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
- Oscars 2026 Predictions In All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
- Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
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