NASCAR: Questionable championship change made before Talladega

As a seasoned NASCAR enthusiast with over two decades of rooting for my favorite drivers under my belt, I must admit that following Kyle Larson’s journey this season has been nothing short of exhilarating. The highs have been incredibly high, and the lows, well, they’ve been just as intense.

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Season Playoffs Round of 16 wasn’t my lucky day, and it cost me my front-runner position for winning the championship at FanDuel Sportsbook, as Kyle Larson from Hendrick Motorsports experienced a rocky beginning.

Initially, I found myself rooting for Christopher Bell from Joe Gibbs Racing to be among the top contenders, but after an impressive performance, he stole the show and became my undisputed pick to win, taking over the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet’s previous spot as the clear favorite in the race.

However, Larson concluded the round of 16 with a highly impressive win at Bristol Motor Speedway, a dominance not seen in decades. Post the points reset for the round of 12, he resumed his position as the leader, and yet again, was considered the front-runner for the outright championship.

Yet after a single poor result at Kansas Speedway, he again finds himself with longer odds.

In the Kansas City, Kansas race on a four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) track, Larson initially made contact with the wall early on, which ultimately proved insurmountable and resulted in him finishing in 26th place. Despite this setback, he remains comfortably above the cut line for the round of 8, sitting fourth in the overall point standings.

In the final races at Talladega Superspeedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, which conclude the quarterfinals and decide who advances to the next round, anything is possible. Two years back, Larson, the then-reigning champion, was knocked out in the Round of 12.

But shouldn’t we have learned a lesson about Larson – not to overreact – after the round of 16?

Initially, Larson was given the title of clear favorite with odds of +400, while Bell followed closely behind at +450. However, recent updates show that both racers are now considered co-favorites with odds of +450, with a group of four other drivers trailing them at +600.

The pack encompasses Denny Hamlin from Joe Gibbs Racing, the current series champion Ryan Blaney who represents Team Penske, William Byron who leads in points at Hendrick Motorsports, and the regular season champion Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing.

450 odds suggest that Larson’s chance of winning the championship is less than 20%. Despite three below-par performances in four playoff races, he remains in the top four in the point standings and has been a widely favored contender to advance to the Championship 4 round at Phoenix Raceway next month.

If he makes it to the quarterfinals, he will be the leader in points going into the semifinals, regardless of how the final round of 12 plays out.

This season, Larson leads with 47 playoff points compared to Bell’s 32. If Bell were to win both of the upcoming races and sweep all stages within those races, he would earn an additional 14 points, bringing his total to 46.

In essence, if Larson manages to make it past the races at Talladega and Charlotte, he could once again be the clear front-runner, given that he has previously triumphed at each of the five tracks where the remaining five races this season are scheduled, since joining Rick Hendrick’s team in 2021.

Despite a less-than-impressive performance at Kansas, which ultimately had minimal influence on the playoff scenario to start with, it is unwarranted to dismiss Larson as the clear front-runner for the championship title.

Full odds can be found here. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Tune in to NBC for the live broadcast of the YellaWood 500 from Talladega Superspeedway, starting at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 6! Sign up now for a free trial of FuboTV to catch all the action!

2024-10-06 14:32