NASCAR change made that should’ve happened three weeks ago

NASCAR change made that should've happened three weeks ago

As a dedicated NASCAR enthusiast who’s been following the sport for over two decades, I can confidently say that Kyle Larson’s performances this season have been nothing short of extraordinary. The way he’s been handling those unexpected hiccups and still managing to maintain his lead is truly remarkable. It’s like watching a masterclass in resilience and skill on the racetrack.

The event that initiated the Round of 16 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs occurred once more to start the Round of 12, and it led to nearly identical shifts in odds at betting sites.

Initially, Kyle Larson from Hendrick Motorsports was the clear front-runner in the odds to win the 2024 championship, but his unfortunate crash at Atlanta Motor Speedway shifted the focus. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell then emerged as a co-favorite, eventually even taking over as the outright favorite for a moment.

Despite facing danger, Larson progressed to the final 12, resuming his role as the top bettor’s pick. However, a disappointing race at Kansas Speedway brought Bell back into contention, making them both betting favorites once more.

Given Larson’s position, which was comfortably above the cut line for the Round of 8 and held a substantial playoff points lead over others in the field, the recent change seemed rather puzzling. After all, even if he advanced again, he would still take the points lead.

Just as he concluded the Round of 16 at Bristol Motor Speedway with an almost flawless performance, he delivered another virtually perfect race at Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval to wrap up the Round of 12. This achievement not only guarantees him a spot in the Round of 8 for the third time in four years but also extends his playoff point lead, giving him a 33-point advantage over the cut line for the Championship 4 as we move into the semifinal round.

Once more, Larson stands as the clear front-runner at DraftKings Sportsbook. Initially, both he and Bell had odds of +450 prior to the Charlotte Roval race. However, following that event, Larson’s odds have been adjusted to +370, while Bell remains at +450.

Full championship odds can be found here.

It seems reasonable to assume that such intense reactions towards Larson’s subpar performances in races that have minimal or no effect on his playoff standings will eventually provide opportunities for shrewd bettors to capitalize on these overreactions.

It seems quite possible that they have already accomplished this feat. With odds of +370 (approximately a 1 in 4.7 chance), one might underestimate the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet, given that, barring unforeseen circumstances, he appears to be on track for the Championship 4.

But above all, Larson should have been the outright favorite all along.

This season, Larson stands out as the top driver, having accumulated six victories – double the number of wins by the second-place drivers. Additionally, he maintains the lead in overall points despite skipping the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, a race where he previously triumphed and offered more points than any other event on this year’s calendar.

While Bell can’t be underestimated, it’s been since June that he last won a race, and the only other driver from Team Penske, Joey Logano, who is still in contention for the championship has also won a playoff race.

Although all the other championship hopefuls are placed among the top seven in terms of points accumulated this season, Logano ranks 15th in this aspect. However, he advanced to the final eight due to an unfortunate disqualification of Alex Bowman from Hendrick Motorsports during the Charlotte race.

23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick, currently ranked as a third contender with odds of +500, hasn’t secured a win since the middle of August. The only other drivers besides Larson and Bell who have achieved at least three victories this year, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron, haven’t managed to claim a victory since April.

Larson is heavily tipped to emerge victorious in this upcoming race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, which could secure his spot in the Championship 4. The current champion, who previously triumphed there in March, is currently priced at approximately 3.3:1 (or +330). Byron follows closely behind at approximately 8.5:1 (or +850), with Bell slightly further back at 9:1 (or +900).

Hey there fellow gaming enthusiasts! This coming Sunday, October 20th at 2:30 p.m. ET, I’ll be tuning in to NBC for the live coverage of the South Point 400! Last year, Larson took home the trophy for this race, and he also won big at Las Vegas back in March. If you don’t want to miss out on the action, sign up now for a free trial of FuboTV – it’s worth every second!

2024-10-17 16:02