NASCAR: 3 crazy scenarios that totally expose the playoff format

As a seasoned NASCAR enthusiast with over three decades under my belt, I’ve seen it all – from Cale Yarborough’s dominance to Dale Earnhardt’s iconic wins, and everything in between. The playoff format has been a part of our sport for the last 18 years, and while it’s had its ups and downs, I’ve generally found it to be an engaging addition that adds tension to the final stretch of the season.

The playoff system was implemented in NASCAR prior to the 2004 season, and it has been used regularly since then to decide the season’s champion.

Starting from the 2014 season, the elimination format that is currently being utilized in the Cup Series has been in place. This very same format was introduced before the start of the 2016 season for both the Xfinity Series and the Truck Series.

Introducing stage races prior to the 2017 season slightly modified the competition’s structure by incorporating stage points in determining rankings. These stage victories now accumulate playoff points for drivers, which they can retain throughout the playoffs.

There’s been much discussion about the playoff structure over the years, yet it seems it will continue, at least maintaining a resemblance to its form from the past decade.

Over the past 17 seasons since the introduction of the playoffs in 2004, a total of 20 championships have been claimed. Among these 20 titles, it turns out that eight were won by drivers who likely would have clinched them regardless of the existence of the playoffs.

Among the ten championships awarded since 2014, when the new format was implemented, only three went to drivers who could have still claimed victory without the playoff system in place.

Should this be the case?

Let’s postpone discussing that topic for later; instead, let’s ponder some extraordinary (to clarify, I mean exceptional or highly unusual) situations that might potentially reveal flaws in the playoff system in the future if they were to occur.

2024 saw an extraordinary turn of events akin to Harrison Burton qualifying for the playoffs despite being the lowest-ranked driver in the standings – something we’ve been discussing as if it were straight out of a wild and unpredictable racing tale.

Granted, the odds that any one of them happens are extremely small, as they are, in fact, extreme, but they are worth considering when you look at what the current playoff format really rewards and undervalues.

1. Winning 35 races

In simpler terms, even if a racer triumphs in an impressive 35 out of 36 scheduled races, they may still fail to clinch the championship title. Winning the initial 35 races only ensures them a place in the final four contenders for the championship, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they will win it all.

If he ends up being outranked by any of the other drivers in the Championship 4, he won’t claim the title; he could potentially come in fourth position. Even with an average finish as impressive as 1.03 (which translates to 35 wins and a second place finish), he might still lose the championship.

2. Winning 10 races, never finishing lower than 2nd

A racer might triumph in ten events and never place worse than second throughout the entire season (an average finish of 1.72), but still miss out on qualifying for the playoffs.

If a driver places second in every regular-season race (a total of 26), he might not make it to the playoffs if at least 16 different racers have won each event. Surprisingly, even if he wins all ten playoff races, his final position could be 17th in the championship standings.

Indeed, if he manages to accumulate the most points during the season, he would secure his spot in the playoffs without needing to clinch a race victory, because leading the standings ensures qualification.

But even all second place finishes may not be enough; they are worth 35 points.

Considering the fact that there are a maximum of 20 stage points on the table for each driver in each race (30 in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway), there is no guarantee that 26 second place finishes would be enough, as that comes out to 910 points.

Drivers have managed over a thousand points during the normal season despite consistently finishing behind the second-place driver. However, this might only put them in seventeenth position in the overall championship rankings.

3. 34th place?

Before 2023, given that a racer who won a regular season race merely had to end up within the top 30 in the standings during the regular season for their victory to secure them a spot in the playoffs, I, as the 30th place driver, could potentially make a run for the championship.

Starting in 2023, even the top 30 requirement was completely scrapped.

In a remarkable turnaround, Harrison Burton, racing for Wood Brothers Racing, seized an opportunity with his triumph at Daytona International Speedway. This victory not only secured him a spot in the postseason but also made him eligible for the championship, despite starting from the very back of the grid in 34th place and being last among full-time drivers.

Contemplate this scenario: A racer who typically ends up around 30th position (Burton’s is closer to 26th) taking the championship title, while a driver boasting ten victories, no lower finishes than second place, and an average finish of 1.72 winds up in 17th position in the rankings. Quite intriguing, isn’t it?

Considering these possibilities, do you think your view on the NASCAR playoff format alters in any way? While it’s highly unlikely, to the point of almost being impossible, for any of these situations to occur, they still don’t significantly affect the general perception of the format.

On a different note, there won’t be any positive effects, because the nature of this format allows for such situations to occur, regardless of whether the least likely outcomes among all possibilities actually happen.

2024-09-08 15:02

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