Is Dota 2 dying? Analyzing the current game state through data

Over a decade has passed since Dota 2 saw the light of its public release. The moniker “dead game” frequently gets tossed around in relation to it nowadays. However, is this characterization accurate? In this piece, we will delve into Dota 2’s present condition using data to determine if it’s on the brink of demise.

Dead Dota 2 Player Statistics

Initially, we should examine the total count of Dota 2 players based on information obtained from SteamDB. The enclosed graph illustrates notable ups and downs in the player base throughout different periods.

In March 2019, the game reached its highest concurrent user count of 1,045,353. More recently, in May 2024, there was a significant update that led to a new peak player count of 951,239.

In simpler terms, the number of players peaks dramatically during significant game updates, major events, and tournaments. Yet, the graph showing long-term trends reveals a gradual decrease in the total player count over the years.

Although there has been a decrease in player numbers since approximately 2016, the numbers have remained relatively steady and have even risen slightly in the last two years. This trend can be visualized using a sixth-degree polynomial graph.

Dota 2 hasn’t been deemed a “dying game” from my point of view, as it has maintained a steady state for quite some time now.

Twitch peak viewers

As an avid fan of Dota 2, I can’t help but be in awe of the vast community it has cultivated. While some of us are deeply immersed in the game itself, actively participating in matches and honing our strategies, there’s another significant group that contributes to its vibrant ecosystem: the spectator gamers. These fans dedicate their time to watching streams and tournaments, absorbing every detail, cheering on their favorite teams, and expanding their knowledge of this complex and captivating game.

Based on Twitch’s statistics, the number of Dota 2 viewers on the platform has consistently remained high for an extended period. Notable surges occurred exclusively during The International events. For example, in October 2021, when underdog team Spirit won TI, the maximum concurrent viewers hit a record-breaking 1,719,828. The trendline representing this data is depicted using a logarithmic scale.

As a dedicated gamer following Dota 2, I can confirm that the game maintains a consistent viewership throughout the year. Moreover, when significant tournaments roll around, the player base grows exponentially, demonstrating its enduring appeal. From my gaming perspective, these findings suggest that Dota 2 is not fading but rather retaining its grip on the community.

Dota 2 tournaments and prize pools

In relation to Dota 2, it’s essential to acknowledge its substantial prize funds. Previously, The International would consistently establish new benchmarks for esports prize pools annually. Yet, recently, the landscape of this community has shifted.

Starting from 2023, Valve will no longer maintain the Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) system, focusing solely on The International (TI) tournaments. Meanwhile, the Riyadh Masters has evolved into an annual major eSports event with significant prize pools:

I’ve noticed an intriguing trend in Dota 2 esports prizes: The largest prize pool for The International (TI) peaked at a staggering $40,018,195 in 2021. However, the past few years have seen a significant decrease due to Valve’s decision to stop releasing battle passes. This decline seems to have influenced other major tournaments as well. For instance, the Riyadh Masters’ prize pool appears to mirror that of the previous TI year, and it too saw a decrease when TI’s prize money dipped.

Following Valve’s cancellation of DPC tournaments, a surge of new organizers joined the Dota 2 scene, including BLAST and CCT. PGL made its return as well, resulting in a densely populated 2025 schedule.

Despite the financial impact of cancelling DPC events on numerous tier-two teams, they now face new prospects. The outcome of this shift, be it favorable or unfavorable, remains to be seen. Emerging event formats and an increased number of tournaments may breathe new life into the Dota 2 scene.

Dota 2 patches calendar

Over the past few years, Dota 2 has seen fewer regular updates. Yet, major updates continue to roll out annually. Take this year for instance, where Valve introduced facets and innate abilities, thereby enriching the game with more intricate strategies.

Based on the data in the table, it is clear that Valve made the most updates between the years 2018 and 2020. However, there was a significant decrease in the number of updates starting from the year 2021.

According to the update rhythm, the game appears to be losing popularity. Yet, recent significant updates suggest a heavy workload for the developers. However, if these major changes are considerable, wouldn’t there also be frequent smaller adjustments for balance?

Is Dota 2 a dead game?

After reading through the entire piece, I must admit that the question of Dota 2’s demise lingers in my mind. While we can’t definitively answer that based on revenue figures which Valve keeps under wraps, it’s truly astonishing to see this game, with a history spanning over a decade, continuing to draw hundreds of thousands of concurrent players. That’s quite an impressive feat!