IndyCar: 5 way-too-early bold predictions for the 2025 season

As a seasoned motorsport enthusiast with decades of following and analyzing the IndyCar Series under my belt, I must say that the upcoming season looks both exciting and unpredictable. The struggles of Siegel and the potential challenges for Lundgaard are certainly points of concern, but the return of Tony Kanaan to the track is a breath of fresh air.

Alex Palou from Chip Ganassi Racing claimed the top spot in the IndyCar championship rankings following his victory at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca in June. Although he didn’t secure another win in the nine races that followed, his consistent performances enabled him to maintain and even widen his points advantage, ultimately earning his third title since 2021.

As a 27-year-old Spaniard, I’ve just become the first back-to-back champion in this series since Dario Franchitti, who clinched three titles straight from 2009 to 2011. I’m proud to be driving the No. 10 Honda for Chip Ganassi Racing.

Interestingly, Ryan Hunter-Reay, driving the DHL-backed No. 28 Honda, was the one who put an end to Franchitti’s winning streak in 2012. For the year 2024, Palou will have DHL as his main sponsor for the first time, marking a shift from Michael Andretti’s organization, where DHL had been a partner for 13 years, to Chip Ganassi’s team after the 2023 season.

The company, which boasts a color scheme identical to the Spanish flag’s vibrant yellow and red, hadn’t triumphed since 2018 until Palou secured their win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in May.

Following a 2024 season with seven drivers claiming victory in multiple races, the most since 2019 and equaling the record for most winners in the series, what can we expect from the 2025 season?

Here are five bold predictions.

Alex Palou three-peats

Alex Palou’s predicted three-peat isn’t just an expectation based on him; it’s daring because such a feat has occurred merely three times in the annals of American open-wheel racing. Ted Horn, Sebastien Bourdais, and Dario Franchitti are the only drivers to have achieved consecutive titles – Ted from 1946 to 1948, Sebastien from 2004 to 2007, and Dario from 2009 to 2011.

Triumphing in the Palou race for a third time would mean he’d accumulate four championships within five years. At just 28 years old, he could boast that only A.J. Foyt and Scott Dixon have achieved more titles than him.

Given that his three championships were earned over a four-year period while being on Dixon’s team, and he was the only driver standing between Dixon and tying the record for seven championships in 2023, it’s quite possible that he has already joined the conversation about the greatest of all time with his consecutive titles.

Despite his 2024 victory margin being smaller than the previous year and him winning only two races compared to five, this difference merely highlights the significant advantage he presently holds.

In 2025, the schedule may enhance his abilities even more. He excelled at Thermal Club, and it’s now slated to host a points race instead of an exhibition one. This race is intended to replace one of the two races at the Milwaukee Mile, where he struggled towards the end of the 2024 season, losing ground in the standings, although not due to any fault of his own.

The decrease in Chip Ganassi Racing teams from five to three, along with their technical partnership with the revitalized Meyer Shank Racing group, seems to be beneficial rather than detrimental.

A.J. Foyt Enterprises wins Indy 500

At the 2023 Indianapolis 500, A.J. Foyt Enterprises came in third with Santino Ferrucci before partnering with Team Penske, an alliance that seemed to favor Team Penske at Indy in 2024. Despite this, Ferrucci still achieved an eighth-place finish, and he ended up ninth in the championship rankings – a position not reached by a Foyt driver since 2002.

For the upcoming season in 2025, our team has secured David Malukas, a two-time oval podium finisher who previously showed impressive rookie performance with Dale Coyne Racing in 2022. His rookie year statistics included one podium finish, two additional top 10 finishes, an average position of 14th place, and a championship ranking of 16th. Interestingly enough, Alex Palou, who raced for the same team as a rookie in 2020, had identical stats initially, but he has since gone on to claim victory in three out of four championships.

Surprisingly enough, during their partnership in 2020, Ferrucci ended up placing three spots higher than Palou in the season’s final rankings.

This pair of cars represents a remarkably robust lineup for our team, and the Indianapolis 500 has proven to be our most successful event during the past two years. It would be absolutely thrilling if Foyt were to triumph on Memorial Day Sunday in half a year.

It’s noteworthy that during the 2024 race, only Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin, his teammates at Penske, managed to lead more laps than Sting Ray Robb of Foyt. Interestingly, Newgarden secured his win from the front row, while McLaughlin started the race on pole position.

Scott Dixon retires

In 2024, Scott Dixon’s performance was comparable to his poorest season since 2005. While a sixth-place finish in points is commendable, Dixon himself admitted that he didn’t perform at his usual best throughout the year.

In the heat of the racing season, I managed to clinch victories in two nail-biting fuel mileage races on the streets of Long Beach and Detroit. Honestly, it felt like the IndyCar season without these wins. However, for the remainder of the year, I found myself playing catch-up against racers from no less than four distinct teams in the championship standings.

Reflecting on the 2024 season, despite standing second behind my teammate Alex Palou in the final standings, I found myself outside the top seven an astonishing seven times. Excluding the hybrid trouble at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course and the unfortunate incident on the opening lap at Portland International Raceway, that’s still a notable five results that didn’t quite live up to my usual standard of performance.

As far as I can see (admittedly not a lot), the No. 9 Honda’s Wikipedia page for the 2025 racing season doesn’t name any driver at this time. Although there’s been no indication that Dixon won’t return in 2025, the following year, 2026, might present a different scenario.

2022 saw me expressing my belief that I still have about five more years to give, with the 2025 season marking the fourth year of this period. I’ll be celebrating my 45th birthday in July next year.

Chip Ganassi Racing’s driver contracts are usually kept confidential, except in instances such as legal disputes. However, should Scott Dixon decide that it’s time to retire, it seems unlikely that he wouldn’t have the opportunity to do so.

2024’s Indy 500 victory isn’t out of reach yet, as he was running at a winning pace due to superior fuel efficiency before a late caution flag. He ended up finishing third after several other competitors, including Josef Newgarden who ultimately won, were re-entered into the competition.

If he fails to claim the championship in 2025, it will signify the longest streak yet without a title for him – a span of five consecutive years. Might an Indy 500 exclusive contract be on the horizon for him soon?

McLaren fire at least one driver

Hey there fellow gamers, I’ve gotta say something here, if it’s okay: It feels like this team is changing drivers more often than a kid switches games on a Saturday night. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m all for change and progress, but considering Team Penske has been relatively stable for the past 15 years, it seems a bit hard to believe that they could suddenly challenge for the championship after so many driver changes in just the last 15 months. Just food for thought!

Despite Pato O’Ward clinching three victories in 2024, equal to the highest number of wins in the series, they still haven’t reached the same tier. The second-place finish by Colton Herta for Andretti Global suggests that Arrow McLaren currently ranks fourth among the teams.

In the year 2023, Alexander Rossi decided to depart from Andretti Autosport and join McLaren. He explained that McLaren, along with Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske, were the top three teams he believed could claim a championship title. However, during his two-year tenure with McLaren, he managed to finish ninth and 10th in points without securing a win. On the other hand, from 2020 to 2022 while at Andretti Autosport, Rossi ended up placing ninth or 10th every year, but did score one victory during that timeframe.

As a gamer, I can relate this situation to my gaming group dynamics. It seems the team, in this case McLaren, has shown a clear preference towards one player (O’Ward), who, let’s be honest, made an immediate impact when he joined us back in 2020. However, it’s unfair to pin all the issues on a newcomer like Alex Palou, whose change of heart might have sparked some shuffling around, but the real problem runs much deeper. It’s like when your best player suddenly decides to focus on another game, and you realize that the team needs more balance and harmony to succeed in the long run.

First, they let go of David Malukas prior to any racing event with their team, and subsequently dismissed Theo Pourchaire, who was officially named as his full-time replacement, only two races after the announcement.

After Nolan Siegel took over from Malukas, it turned out that Malukas had already joined another team due to an injury, and he was even competing for victories and pole positions.

2024 saw Siegel battling tremendously, managing only one top-10 placement amidst 10 races driving the No. 6 Chevrolet. If his performance doesn’t improve in year two, is there any basis for thinking McLaren won’t follow a pattern they’ve demonstrated with several others?

Let’s not overlook Christian Lundgaard, who is taking over from Rossi at McLaren. Although McLaren represents a significant improvement compared to Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which has largely become a team fighting for the backmarkers’ positions, Lundgaard consistently outperformed his vehicles since he joined them permanently in 2022. However, Rossi’s time at McLaren showed that switching teams or manufacturers doesn’t always guarantee better performance, as the landscape can sometimes appear greener on the other side.

If Lundgaard faces difficulties, which is unlikely according to my expectations, the No. 7 Chevrolet might heat up more than expected too.

Tony Kanaan unretires, contends for Indy 500 win

Considering the rain incident at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in May that left Kyle Larson with a tough decision between the Indy 500 and NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600, Arrow McLaren and Hendrick Motorsports took preventative measures this time around.

It’s been made official that Tony Kanaan, the winner of the 2013 Indy 500 and currently McLaren’s sporting director, will serve as Larson’s backup driver for the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” in 2025. Unlike in 2024, he is scheduled to participate in a veteran refresher test to ensure his eligibility to compete if needed.

In 2023, Kanaan participated in his fourth Indy 500 since embarking on his “Last Lap Tour”. After the race, he decided to hang up his racing boots. However, people jokingly speculated that he might return for a 23rd start at the Indy 500.

If the 2025 Indy 500 gets postponed due to rain, there’s a possibility he might seize the opportunity, given that Rick Hendrick has stated unequivocally that the Coca-Cola 600 is Larson’s top priority in 2025. This decision aims to avoid another unnecessary NASCAR playoff waiver predicament.

For over four decades, it’s been more than two races since substantial rain disrupted the Indy 500 consecutively. However, each Indy 500 race is separate, meaning even if one year is affected by rain, it doesn’t necessarily mean the following year will also be impacted, resulting in a “two in a row.

In late May, weather conditions in Speedway, Indiana can be quite erratic and hard to predict with certainty. On several occasions during the past ten years, races have gone ahead without disruption despite a 100% forecast of rain beforehand. Even professional meteorologists may struggle to accurately predict the weather here.

If Larson fails to achieve the Memorial Day Double again, it would certainly be a satisfying substitute for IndyCar fans if Kanaan, who is 50 years old, decides to make one final attempt at the Indy 500.

In the year 2022, Kanaan completed the race in third position. Given his past performance and the fact that the McLaren team consistently performs well at what’s known as the “Racing Capital of the World,” there’s little doubt he could be a strong contender if given the opportunity to drive for them again.

Starting March 2, 2025, the IndyCar season kicks off in St. Petersburg, Florida, with the Indy 500, race number six and the 109th running, scheduled for May 25. The season finale, the Big Machine Music City Grand Prix, is planned for August 31 at Nashville Superspeedway. All these races will be broadcast live on Fox.

2024-09-23 17:33

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