I Never Knew I Needed Rocky IV’s Betting Odds For Balboa And Drago’s Match, But I Appreciate The Movie More Now

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If I’m ranking the Rocky movies, Rocky IV is definitely one of my top three favorites. The story of Rocky going to Russia to fight Ivan Drago and avenge his friend is incredibly memorable. It’s such a classic fight that if it happened today, I’m sure people would pay a lot to watch it, likely through a streaming service like Netflix.

I know betting on movies is a controversial topic, and people have strong feelings about it mixing with entertainment. But honestly, I’m just a fan, and when I saw a site posting betting odds for this film, it really grabbed my attention. It’s actually made me even more excited about it and appreciate it more than I already did.

The Betting Odds Were Heavily In Drago’s Favor

While Rocky IV does a decent job of establishing Ivan Drago as the clear favorite against Rocky Balboa, data from Oddspedia reveals just how heavily Drago was expected to win. According to their analysis – treating the fight as if the outcome was unknown – Drago had odds of -250, which translates to a 71.4% implied probability of winning. This makes sense considering he had previously defeated and killed Apollo Creed.

To make things even more interesting, the odds heavily favored Drago to win by knockout – around 63.6%, according to the betting lines. It’s a shame TopMob’s Phillip Sledge didn’t consider that dramatic potential when comparing the films Rocky III and IV.

No One Would Have Expected This Fight To Go The Distance

If sports betting apps had existed in 1985, the bookmakers would have been very worried about the Rocky vs. Drago fight. Almost everyone predicted a knockout, not a decision. The odds of Drago winning by decision were a long shot at +1000 (just a 9.1% chance), and Rocky winning that way was even less likely at +2000 (only a 4.8% chance).

More On Rocky IV

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If you’re new to betting, here’s how it works: a $100 bet on Rocky to win by decision would have paid out $1,100 total. Many in Las Vegas were likely relieved when Rocky knocked out Drago, as the odds for that outcome were lower, at +220. This meant a $100 bet on a knockout would only win $320 – a much smaller payout than the decision win.

Looking back, it’s fortunate sports betting wasn’t as common when the Rocky films were released. Paulie likely would have quickly lost all of Rocky’s earnings – perhaps by making risky bets on Drago winning by knockout. Or, he could have gotten involved with organized crime and tried to get Rocky to throw a fight.

You can rent Rocky IV on Amazon, and if you have Amazon Prime, there’s a wide selection of other movies available too. I especially enjoy watching the Rocky films in November – they’re always a fun topic of conversation when my family gets together for Thanksgiving.

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2025-11-07 02:38