Fantastic Four Projected to Become Marvel’s Third Flop of 2025, Making Six of Seven MCU Films Box Office Losers

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With a disappointing 66% or more decline in its second weekend at the box office, it’s clear that the Fantastic Four‘s initial steps are veering towards commercial failure. This growing trend of financial flops from Marvel productions is increasingly becoming public knowledge. Regardless of the reasons, Kevin Feige’s blueprint for phases four and five of Marvel has been just as underwhelming as the first three phases were exceptionally successful in contrast.

Starting from 2020, the seemingly invincible Marvel Studios under Disney has seen a significant drop in box office success. Several of its latest cinematic releases have fallen short of profitability as per standard Hollywood financial metrics. Typically, a film is expected to earn at least double its production cost plus marketing expenses (P&A) to cover global advertising and distribution costs. Regrettably, numerous Marvel films distributed by Disney have either underperformed financially or barely managed to break even, which is worrying for what was previously the most lucrative franchise in the entertainment industry.

Here’s one way to rephrase the given text in a more natural and easy-to-read style:

There are several reasons why Marvel movies might not be as popular as they once were. Firstly, there have been numerous flops from the studio for quite some time now, which has led many people to lose interest. Secondly, Pedro Pascal seems to be everywhere lately, leading some fans to experience “Pedro Pascal fatigue.” Lastly, the cast’s open discussions about their political views can sometimes turn off viewers or even drive them away completely.

— SameDesu🔍🍃🪶🔱 (@xSame_Desux) August 2, 2025

Reflecting upon recent cinematic releases, one striking instance that caught my attention is the movie “The Marvels” (2023), which garnered a global box office revenue of merely $206 million against its production budget of approximately $307 million. To be financially viable, this film would have needed to gross at least $714 million worldwide, not considering marketing expenses that would undoubtedly push the required figure even higher. Consequently, it stands as the lowest-grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) production thus far, leading to an estimated loss of over $250 million. Another notable letdown was “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” (2023), which carried a production cost of around $330 million and brought in $476 million globally. Although it didn’t entirely flop, its earnings fell short by roughly $280 million to meet break-even points, positioning it squarely within the “underperformer” category. To emphasize, these figures don’t account for Ant-Man’s marketing costs, making the situation even more challenging… and unfortunately, this trend persists.

In the current context, you could consider movies like Eternals, Shang-Chi, and Black Widow. However, out of these three, it’s only Shang-Chi that might have recovered its financial investment. These films were produced during the pandemic period when we were led to believe everything was normal, but the truth was superhero movies were finding it tough to persuade audiences to go back to cinemas. To prevent any accusations of bias, I’ll mention them separately.

2025 saw the continuation of a new trend with the release of Thunderbolts, a movie that showcased a team of less famous anti-heroes and aimed to deliver a more realistic ensemble experience within Phase Five of the MCU. Although it received positive reviews from critics and had a moderate promotional campaign, the film grossed between $371 and $382 million worldwide. With an estimated production and marketing cost of around $275–300 million (billed as a Marvel movie made with tighter budget constraints), Thunderbolts needed to earn over $500 million or more just to break even. Industry experts have labeled it a financial flop, at best managing to barely cover its costs. Captain America: Brave New World, another release from Marvel and Disney in the same year, fared even worse. These two films were back-to-back releases for Marvel in 2025.

In this current Marvel era, while not every movie had difficulty, successes have been less frequent compared to before. The standouts include “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2022), which earned over $850 million worldwide, largely due to its powerful emotional impact and the dedicated fanbase mourning the late Chadwick Boseman. Likewise, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (2023) was successful, raking in $846 million globally, thanks to positive audience feedback and marking the end of James Gunn’s cherished trilogy.

Despite recent successes, it’s clear that there’s a noticeable change in trend. Out of the last six significant MCU movies (Quantumania, The Marvels, Captain America: New World Order, Thunderbolts, and most recently Fantastic Four First Footsteps), five have underperformed financially according to conventional measures. This is happening at a time when costs are escalating, there’s an oversaturation of superhero content, and audiences seem to be growing weary of the franchise. Previously, Disney could almost count on box office supremacy with each Marvel release, but now, the room for mistakes has shrunk significantly. Movies within the MCU that were once mid-tier or less prominent are finding it hard to justify their rising production costs.

I’ve been closely following the developments in the industry, and it’s clear that there’s a growing sense of apprehension regarding the upcoming release of “Fantastic Four.” Analysts are now suggesting that this film might find it challenging to surpass the $500 million mark at the global box office. Given an estimated production budget of $200 million and marketing costs of at least $100 million, the movie would need to earn at least $600 million just to break even.

Moreover, this film serves as a prelude to the upcoming Avengers movies, each of which is expected to be one of the most expensive productions ever made. Their budgets are projected to soar far beyond what we’ve discussed thus far, with some estimating production costs alone to be around $750 million. As scripts are still being written during production, reshoots seem inevitable.

As a die-hard Marvel fan, I must confess that, to my dismay, the Disney+ shows haven’t quite lived up to my expectations – in fact, they might even be falling short compared to the movies.

It’s clear that some people are experiencing a sort of superhero saturation, while others think it’s simply a shift in audience preferences. However, there seems to be an undeniable truth: Marvel underwent significant changes post-Endgame. They openly announced and justified these changes, yet the new direction has led to a noticeable drop in cinema attendance for most Marvel films – approximately 50%. Despite this decline, Marvel hasn’t issued any official apology or acknowledgment of an error. In other words, overconfidence might be the downfall of the Marvel cinematic era.

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2025-08-04 15:56