Don’t Count Out Hamnet Winning Best Picture Just Yet

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Chloé Zhao’s film Hamnet, a take on the life surrounding William Shakespeare, has been a frequent topic of discussion regarding the 2026 Oscars for quite some time. Many predict Zhao will be nominated for Best Director, Jessie Buckley is a strong contender to win Best Actress, and Paul Mescal is expected to be nominated for Best Supporting Actor. The film is also likely to receive nominations in several other categories and is considered a very strong contender for a Best Picture nomination.

When Hamnet premiered at film festivals, many considered it a strong contender for Best Picture. However, One Battle After Another quickly emerged as the frontrunner. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film has dominated awards season, taking home top honors at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Astra Film Awards, Gotham Awards, National Board of Review, and several other prestigious events.

Although Hamnet was well-received at film festivals, its chances of winning Best Picture have diminished, falling behind films like One Battle After Another and Sinners. It seemed to be losing steam, making a win at the Oscars seem unlikely. However, the film has recently shown it still has a chance to surprise everyone and pull off an upset victory.

Hamnet’s Strong Showing At The Golden Globes Proves There Is Life In Its Best Picture Chances

Courtesy: Everett Collection

Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, One Battle After Another, was the big winner at the 2026 Golden Globes, taking home four awards. Hamnet shared second place with Sinners, KPop Demon Hunters, and The Secret Agent, each winning two awards. While two wins may not sound like much, the way these films achieved them is noteworthy.

It wasn’t shocking when Buckley won Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama. She was already expected to win the Oscar and had already won several other awards this season. If she hadn’t won, it would have hurt the overall chances for her film, Hamnet, so this win solidifies her position as the leading contender.

The biggest surprise of the night was Hamnet winning Best Motion Picture – Drama. While I suspected it was possible, most people—and I—expected Sinners to win. Instead of Sinners becoming the main competitor to One Battle After Another, Hamnet’s victory suggests it could be a dark horse contender at the 98th Academy Awards.

The numbers back this up. Winning the Golden Globe for Best Drama has historically been a stronger indicator of a future Best Picture win than winning for Musical or Comedy, as seen with the film One Battle After Another. Over the past 82 years of the awards, 40 winners in the Drama category have gone on to win Best Picture, compared to just 11 winners from the Musical or Comedy category.

While One Battle After Another has been the clear favorite for a while, some believe it may have reached its peak too soon during the long awards season. Hamnet‘s success at the Golden Globes could give its campaign a boost and make the competition for Best Picture much tighter. With Oscar nomination voting beginning today, this momentum couldn’t have come at a better moment.

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2026-01-12 19:48