Movies

Ballerina fails to stay on target at the box office as June 2025’s cinema scene gets underway

BBG News

After a significant gap of 19 months since the release of “The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” in November 2023, Lionsgate managed to open a film that grossed over $20 million. As I expressed in my recent article for Pajiba, Lionsgate has been striving to restore its financial stability. Unfortunately, the studio’s 2020s have been marred by box office disasters such as “Borderlands”, “The Crow”, “Moonfall”, “The Expendables 4”, and others. The fact that Lionsgate can still introduce non-“Hunger Games” films beyond the $20 million mark on opening weekend is a promising sign for their long-term recovery. However, before we delve into Lionsgate’s upcoming film “Ballerina”, let us first take a brief look at the current domestic box office leader.

Indeed, for the third weekend in a row, “Lilo & Stitch” reigned supreme at the domestic box office. The live-action adaptation of this beloved Disney tale earned an additional $32.5 million over the weekend, bringing its total to a staggering $335.79 million in 17 days. Compared to last weekend’s earnings, there was a drop of 47%, which is slightly larger than the third-weekend declines experienced by “Aladdin” (42%) and “The Little Mermaid” (44%). Following the trend set by “Aladdin,” it’s estimated that “Stitch” has approximately $120 million left to earn domestically, which would take its total to over $450 million in North America. If this comes to pass, “Stitch” will surpass “A Minecraft Movie,” making it the biggest domestic film of 2025 so far.

Now we move on to “Ballerina,” a film similar to the “John Wick” series and one of Lionsgate’s main attractions for summer 2025. Despite earning $25 million during its opening weekend, this movie featuring Ana de Armas had a lower domestic debut than all the sequels in the “John Wick” franchise, including those like “John Wick: Chapter 2” that were made with less than half of the budget. The audience who saw it gave it an A- CinemaScore, suggesting they enjoyed the film. However, there was not enough interest for more “John Wick” films that didn’t revolve around the main character.

The film titled “Ballerina” faced challenges in its promotion as it didn’t have a clear antagonist like Donnie Yen did for “John Wick 4.” Additionally, Keira Knightley doesn’t possess the extensive action cinema history that Keanu Reeves does. Moreover, after “John Wick: Chapter 4” concluded the franchise so decisively, returning for spin-offs seemed contrived and money-driven. Despite outperforming all other Lionsgate films of 2024 and 2025 during its opening weekend, “Ballerina’s” lackluster debut suggested that the “John Wick” series might not extend much beyond standalone John Wick movies. Good luck, Lionsgate, with your plans for the “John Wick” spin-off universe.

The movie “Ballerina” serves as an illustration of how extensions and spin-offs in film franchises often underperform compared to their originals at the domestic box office. Since it saw only a 19% increase from Friday to Saturday, without considering Thursday night screenings, it’s unlikely that Ballerina will earn more than $60 million domestically. This amount would place Ballerina below several Lionsgate movies released over 19 years ago, such as Madea’s Family Reunion, Warm Bodies, Hacksaw Ridge, and on par with Why Did I Get Married Too?

In terms of domestic earnings among 2025 films, Ballerina would only outperform One of Them Days, an original R-rated comedy, by $10 million, despite having a budget that was 16% larger. If Ballerina achieves its projected $60 million earnings, it will trail behind several 2020s titles like Civil War, The Woman King, Cocaine Bear, Anyone But You, and A Man Called Otto.

As a movie enthusiast, I often ponder about the creative direction our industry is taking. Instead of continuously expanding established franchises like John Wick, The Exorcist, Snow White, Ghostbusters, Transformers, and The Karate Kid for more profits, why not venture into uncharted territories and offer something fresh? Yes, audiences are flocking to theaters for “chicken jockey!” and live-action Stitch, but the successes of Sinners, One of Them Days, and The Wild Robot prove that there’s also an appetite for new narratives among general audiences. Despite Ballerina being designed as a “bulletproof” summer blockbuster spin-off, a familiar title didn’t translate into financial success.

Let’s transition from discussing the struggling box office performance of Ballerina and focus instead on other ongoing releases and new entries. In its third week, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning earned another $15 million (a 46% drop from last week), bringing its domestic total to $149.2 million. It seems unlikely that Ethan Hunt’s final adventure will surpass $200 million in North America, but it’s on track for a domestic total similar to Rogue Nation’s $191 million from July 2015.

Legends” saw a bigger decrease in earnings during its second weekend compared to what’s typically expected for an adult-focused sequel, rather than a children’s film. It dropped by 57% to earn $8.7 million, bringing its total domestic gross to $35.4 million. Even with a lower production cost of $45 million, these figures are not promising for a summer blockbuster playing in over 3,800 theaters. On the other hand, “Final Destination: Bloodlines” continued to perform well at the box office, earning another $6.5 million – a 40% drop from its previous week. This brings its total domestic earnings to an impressive $123.5 million.

In its initial nationwide screening this weekend, Wes Anderson’s quirky comedy, titled “The Phoenician Scheme“, collected $6.27 million. This is a slight decrease compared to the opening wide release of “$9.05 million” for “Asteroid City” and the launch of “$8.53 million” for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” in 977 theaters. However, it managed to surpass the wide release debut of “$5.47 million” for “Isle of Dogs“, which was released in April 2018, as well as the wide release opening of “$2.6 million” for “The French Dispatch” from October 2021.

As a dedicated fan of Wes Anderson’s work, I must admit that the releases of “Hotel” and “City” stand out as remarkable exceptions in his cinematic journey. However, I’m pleasantly surprised by the debut of “The Phoenician Scheme.” If it manages to maintain its appeal during the upcoming Father’s Day and Juneteenth weekends, it could be a real winner. After a week of limited release followed by ten days in wide distribution, “Scheme” has nearly reached the $7 million mark at the domestic box office.

Among the latest movies released over the past weekend, who would have guessed that the graphically violent horror film “Bring Her Back” would outperform the family-oriented sequel? Indeed, this is what transpired as “Bring Her Back” dropped a significant 50% from its opening weekend and earned an additional $3.5 million. After ten days, this Sally Hawkins horror production has amassed a total of $14.2 million in the domestic market. With another steep decline in revenue over the next weekend, “Bring Her Back” is on track to join the elite club of A24 titles that have grossed over $20+ million domestically.

The movie “Dan Da Dan: Evil Eye” earned approximately $3.09 million during its initial weekend at 1,080 cinemas, resulting in an impressive average of around $2,854 per theater. This remarkable start places it fifth among GKIDS’ all-time highest grossing films. This success further solidifies the prosperous box office trend that GKIDS has been experiencing in 2025, having accumulated roughly $14.7 million domestically so far this year. It is likely that GKIDS will surpass $20 million in total annual box office earnings for only the second time in history, given upcoming releases such as a re-release of “Shin Godzilla.

In its eighth weekend in theaters, the movie “Sinners” continued to draw audiences, earning $2.9 million – a 44% decrease – and now boasting a domestic total of over $272 million. This remarkable box office hit may still have $11-14 million more to generate, an impressive accomplishment for this long-legged blockbuster. Meanwhile, the Marvel Studios film “Thunderbolts,” which marks the start of summer 2025, declined by 48% in this period, adding $2.5 million to its domestic total, currently standing at approximately $186.49 million.

Analysis of ‘Dangerous Animals’, an Australian Shark Movie”

In the cinematic world, the movie ‘Dangerous Animals’ featuring Jai Courtney opened this weekend earning $1.55 million, placing it just outside the top ten in 11th position. This is approximately 28% lower than the opening of last year’s early summer horror release from IFC Films, titled ‘In a Violent Nature’. Considering IFC put significant effort into promotional activities for this film, such as outdoor poolside screenings at Alamo Drafthouse, they likely hoped ‘Animals’ would perform more like ‘Clown in a Cornfield’. However, the current horror movie landscape is highly competitive, making it challenging for new releases to stand out. Furthermore, before last year’s ‘Late Night with the Devil’, it seemed unlikely that any IFC title other than ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding’ would debut to seven-digit figures.

*In its third week of release, Friendship saw a 58% drop and earned an additional $1.08 million, bringing its domestic total to $14.73 million.*

*Similarly in its third week, The Last Rodeo decreased by 52% and took home another $1.02 million for a domestic total of $12.95 million.*

*Celebrating its 25th anniversary, DOGMA: Resurrected! showed at 700 locations this weekend, earning $978,492 and bringing its lifetime domestic gross to $31.62 million.*

*Jane Austen Wrecked My Life, currently playing in 291 theaters, lost almost half of its theaters from last week. Consequently, it fell by 64% and grossed another $190,162, resulting in a domestic total of $1.44 million.*

For several months, Neon has been hyping up Mike Flanagan’s “The Life of Chuck,” even premiering its first trailer exclusively at Mickey17 screenings. This adaptation of a Stephen King novel began with a modest limited release, earning $216,031 from 16 theaters, which amounts to a per-theater average of $13,502. We’ll keep an eye on its performance when it broadens its reach in wide release this Friday. On the other hand, the Italian dark comedy “I Don’t Understand You” had a lackluster debut, pulling in just $164,213 from 253 locations, equating to a per-theater average of $649.

This weekend, the highest earning movies raked in $105.9 million, significantly less than usual for a June release period. For example, on June 8-10, 2018, earnings reached $109.6 million, and June 9-11, 2017, grossed an impressive $137.3 million. Two years ago, the combined success of a standout second weekend for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and an average opening for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts boosted box office sales to $163.2 million. In comparison, the 23rd frame of 2025, during which The Secret Life of Pets 2 was number one, saw earnings of $158.32 million. However, this weekend’s earnings represent a substantial drop compared to all but two of the last nine weekends, which were supported by strong performances from films like Minecraft, Sinners, and Lilo & Stitch.

Due to being the sole significant new wide release (meaning it was the only movie premiering in more than 2,000 theaters), it was predictable that Ballerina’s earnings this weekend wouldn’t match those of earlier Junes, which often saw multiple big-name titles debut simultaneously. For instance, June 5-7, 2015, with both Spy and Insidious: Chapter 3 opening to over $22 million each on their debut weekends. However, the box office is expected to recover in the next frame, as the live-action How to Train Your Dragon prepares to premiere and aims to join the exclusive club of movies that have opened to $85+ million domestically in June. At present, summer 2025’s earnings stand slightly behind some pre-March 2020 summer seasons like those of 2009, 2014, and 2017, having grossed just over $1.168 billion so far.

In summary, it’s worth noting that a significant increase has been observed in the number of independent films ranking among the top 12 highest-grossing movies in the U.S. This includes films not produced by the big six studios (Disney, Paramount, Sony/Columbia, Warner Bros., Universal Pictures, or Lionsgate). For instance, during the same weekend in 2019, only two indie films were among the top 12, while this year, five such movies have made it to the list. This growth can be attributed to the major studios reducing the number of movies they produce annually and the merger of 20th Century Fox as a standalone distributor. It’s quite intriguing to see almost half of the top 12 movies in America during the first weekend of June originating from independent studios this year.

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2025-06-09 17:15

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