Movies

Ballerina Box Office Outlook: Will It Make Over $200 Million?

BBG News

The upcoming movie titled “Ballerina” serves as a spin-off in the John Wick series, and here’s some information about its budget, projected earnings, and requirements to become profitable. Taking place between the events of “John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum” and “Chapter 4”, this film features Ana de Armas as Eve Macarro, a ballerina who is introduced and trains in the assassin traditions of the Ruska Roma following her father’s demise. Seeking vengeance, she embarks on a journey. The cast for “Ballerina” includes returning actors Keanu Reeves, Ian McShane, Lance Reddick, and Anjelica Huston, while Gabriel Byrne, Catalina Sandino Moreno, and Norman Reedus make their debut in the franchise as new characters.

Just like every film in the John Wick series, Ballerina aspires to be a financial triumph at the box office. The initial movie was made on a budget of around $20–30 million but grossed over $86 million. Since then, each subsequent film has outperformed its predecessor financially, with larger budgets and even more impressive box office earnings. For instance, Chapter 4 had a budget of $100 million and made over $447 million. This success has spurred the creation of John Wick: Chapter 5 and several spin-offs, one of which is Ballerina.

Ballerina’s Budget Is Reportedly Over $80 Million

The Movie Underwent Extensive Reshoots

As a movie enthusiast, I’ve learned that the budget for the upcoming film “Ballerina” is rumored to be between $80–$90 million following reshoots. This would make it the second most costly production within its franchise, surpassed only by “John Chapter: Chapter 4.” The high production costs are likely attributed to the extensive reshoots the movie required. While most franchise films experience some degree of reshoots, “Ballerina” seems to have undergone particularly significant reshoots after wrapping up principal photography in February 2023.

Chad Stahelski, responsible for the initial four movies’ success, apparently supervised approximately two to three months of additional filming, essentially remaking most of the movie initially helmed by newcomer Len Wiseman, who was absent during this reshooting phase. Media outlets described it as Stahelski stepping in to “tidy up someone else’s mess,” as the seasoned franchise director had to redo the majority of the film since Wiseman’s version fell short of expectations, particularly in terms of the fight scenes within the John Wick movie.

Ballerina’s Opening Weekend Box Office Projections

It’s Projected To Open At $35–40M

As a cinephile eagerly awaiting the release of “Ballerina,” I’ve been keeping an eye on the box office predictions and the latest data from Deadline suggests that we could be looking at an opening weekend take of around $35–40 million! This is exciting news, as it would place Ballerina third in the John Wick openings, with a potential to even surpass the figures. If it does, it will fall between John Wick Chapter 2’s $30.4 million and Chapter 3 – Parabellum’s impressive $56.8 million. Interestingly, this would align quite closely with the franchise’s average debut of $43.8 million. However, John Wick Chapter 4 set a new record for the franchise with an opening weekend earnings of $73.8 million. Here’s hoping Ballerina continues to gain momentum and breaks its own records!

In that price range of approximately $35-$40 million, Ballerina’s opening weekend is expected to be slightly lower than the debut weekends of similar franchise spinoffs like The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes ($44.6 million) and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore ($42.1 million). Nevertheless, this projected opening weekend could set Ballerina on a course for success. Typically, a successful opening weekend represents about half of the film’s budget, which for Ballerina would be around $40-$45 million.

Ballerina Needs To Make Over $200 Million To Be A Box Office Success

The Movie Needs To Make 2.5 Times Its Budget

Typically, a film has to earn more than twice its production cost, accounting for marketing expenses and the fact that cinemas retain a portion of ticket sales, in order to break even and start making money. For instance, if the movie “Ballerina” falls within the lower budget range, it requires earnings exceeding $200 million to be considered a box office hit. If its production cost is at the higher end, it needs to make approximately $225 million to become profitable.

It’s reasonable to anticipate that the movie titled Ballerina won’t struggle to earn over $200 million at the box office, as the last two John Wick films grossed more than $300 million. While it may not surpass the franchise’s record-breaking earnings, it should maintain the legacy of the John Wick series. The presence of popular actors like Reeves and de Armas, along with a rising star in recent years as the lead actor, gives the spinoff a strong chance for success. Consequently, there’s a compelling argument to suggest that Ballerina will be a successful film at the box office.

Ballerina releases in theaters on June 6.

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2025-06-03 18:22

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