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Avatar: Fire & Ash Could Make Oscars History and Surpass The Godfather & LOTR

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The film titled “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is expected to be among the top money-makers this year, possibly adding another accolade to James Cameron’s successful franchise. Even after a 13-year gap between films, the Avatar series seems unstoppable with its reentry into cinemas as if it had never left. The latest installment, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” earned an astounding $2.3 billion globally during its theater run (according to Box Office Mojo), placing it among the top three highest-grossing movies ever made. Much like the original movie, “The Way of Water” was also recognized with a Best Picture nomination.

Given that the initial two films in the series were Oscar-winning productions, there’s a strong possibility that the upcoming “Avatar: Fire and Ash” will also be nominated for the Best Picture category. Considering James Cameron is once again at the helm, it would come as quite a surprise if “Fire And Ash” doesn’t garner recognition similar to its predecessors. The movie’s preliminary details hint at escalating conflicts on Pandora, where Jake Sully and his family face a new Fire Clan. If it receives positive reviews, then “Avatar: Fire and Ash” might accomplish an Oscars feat that only two other franchises have managed to achieve.

Will Avatar: Fire & Ash Land A Best Picture Nomination At The Oscars 2026?

Avatar: Fire And Ash Will Be One Of The Biggest Movies Of 2025

Predicting which films will secure a nomination for Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards is still premature, but honestly, I’d find it hard to believe that Avatar: Fire and Ash won’t be among them. With its release scheduled for December, this film appears likely to be a strong contender for Best Picture as the awards season approaches. It’s plausible that the third installment in the series might not win critical acclaim, but given the apparent effort put into it by Cameron and his team, I’m skeptical that it will flop.

The initial two films titled “Avatar” were both contenders for the Best Picture award, indicating that the upcoming film “Fire and Ash” (the title of Avatar 2) might follow suit. In the past few years, the Academy has been recognizing one or two high-profile blockbusters for their top honor. For instance, in the last three ceremonies, films such as “Dune: Part Two”, “Barbie”, and “Top Gun: Maverick” were all nominees. Among this year’s blockbusters, I believe that “Avatar: Fire and Ash” has the strongest possibility of receiving an Academy nod for Best Picture. Consequently, it appears likely that it will be nominated for the prestigious award at next year’s ceremony.

Avatar Going 3-3 In Best Picture Nominations Matches The Godfather & LOTR

Avatar Could Join An Elite Group Of Franchises

If “Avatar: Fire and Ash” receives a nomination for Best Picture, it would join an exclusive club, as only two other franchises – “The Godfather” and “The Lord of the Rings” – have managed to secure three Best Picture nominations at the Oscars for their entire trilogy. It’s possible that “Fire and Ash” has an equally strong chance of earning another Best Picture nomination for its franchise, though it may not be the concluding chapter of a trilogy, like the third movies in “The Godfather” and “Lord of the Rings” series.

Although The Godfather Part III didn’t receive as much acclaim as the initial two films in Francis Ford Coppola’s trilogy, its series legacy secured a Best Picture nomination for it. Conversely, many believe that the third Lord of the Rings film is the finest in the trilogy, leading to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King being both nominated and winning Best Picture in 2004. I don’t foresee Fire and Ash replicating the success of Lord of the Rings by winning Best Picture, but I would be astonished if it doesn’t at least earn a nomination.

The Avatar Franchise Could Surpass Both Of Those At The Oscars

Avatar: Fire And Ash Won’t Be The Franchise’s Last Movie

Over the past few years, there has been a debate about whether or not the Avatar franchise holds much appeal for many people. However, the release of The Way of Water in recent times has clearly demonstrated that there is a significant interest in James Cameron’s ambitious series. Regardless of personal feelings towards Avatar, it’s now undeniable that this franchise has garnered immense popularity across the globe. In total, the first two movies have grossed over $5 billion at the box office, and it’s expected that Fire and Ash will also be a massive success.

Every Avatar Movie Worldwide Box Office RT Critics Score
Avatar (2009) $2,923,710,708 81%
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) $2,320,250,281 76%
Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) n/a n/a
Avatar 4 (2029) n/a n/a
Avatar 5 (2031) n/a n/a

If “Fire and Ash” manages to secure a Best Picture nomination like “Avatar”, it opens up the possibility for the “Avatar” series to surpass this unique Oscars achievement. Unlike “The Godfather” and “The Lord of the Rings” films, which were part of trilogies, “Fire and Ash” stands alone as a single film in its franchise, implying that the story will carry on in future installments. As you can see from the table, not only is “Fire and Ash” in production, but two more “Avatar” movies have also been confirmed by James Cameron.

As of now, it’s expected that Avatar 4 will premiere on December 21, 2029, with Avatar 5 following suit on December 19, 2031. Typically, one might assume that future Avatar films have a lower chance of being nominated for the Best Picture award. However, if The Way of Water has shown us anything, it’s that we should never underestimate Cameron. Consequently, I believe there’s a chance that the fourth film could be nominated for Best Picture, potentially allowing the Avatar series to outshine both the Godfather and Lord of the Rings trilogies.

Another Franchise Could Also Equal The Godfather & Lord Of The Rings

Dune 3 Could Also Be Nominated For Best Picture

Apart from “Avatar,” another ongoing series could potentially equal the impressive Oscar record held by “The Godfather” and “The Lord of the Rings.” The first two “Dune” films were both nominated for the Best Picture award, implying that the upcoming “Dune 3” might also receive an Academy Award nomination. Since Denis Villeneuve will once again direct the third “Dune” movie, this isn’t unlikely. If released before “Avatar 4,” “Dune 3” may temporarily share the record for franchises with the most Best Picture nominations.

It’s important to mention that Dune 3 is set to follow the novel Dune Messiah, which is known for its peculiarities compared to the first book. This could potentially lead to Academy voters not finding it as appealing as the anticipated Dune: Part Two. However, since we don’t know much about the adaptation plans for Dune 3 yet, it remains uncertain how Villeneuve will handle the story’s unusual elements. At this stage, it would be premature to dismiss Dune 3 as a contender for Best Picture. On a positive note, both Dune 3 and Avatar: Fire and Ash have the chance to make history by winning an Oscar in this category.

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2025-05-25 21:35

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